April 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

It would be nice to have a bit more rain this May, the drought last year killed a bunch of trees/shrubs at my parents place. I figured it was just Victoria that was running low this year, but it doesn't sound like there was much more up there either. Looks like we could break 20C+ each of the next three days. Crazy that it's snowing down in Denver, my brother ended up getting stuck at the airport down there.

Yep, already lawn watering season here. I just noticed that mine needs a good soaking, starting to brown in places. Definitely some dead trees and shrubs around here from last summer. We went to stage 4 watering restrictions in July. No lawn watering and 2 hours of hand watering only. Pretty tough for people with large gardens to water everything by hand in 2 hours, if you have the time. Currently up to 20C here today.

[Bryant]

Not so much. But thats OK... you tried.

Forcing (convection) in that location has down stream implications in the mid latitudes. MJO in the Maritime during the winter often results in Aluetian height rises / West coast troughing. With upward motion over the Indian Ocean / Maritime, low level easterlies will initiate the beginning of this Nina.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/djfschem_lanina.gif

[Phil]

Forcing (convection) in that location has down stream implications in the mid latitudes. MJO in the Maritime during the winter often results in Aluetian height rises / West coast troughing. With upward motion over the Indian Ocean / Maritime, low level easterlies will initiate the beginning of this Nina.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/djfschem_lanina.gif

D**n, you're good. The English language just doesn't get along with my thought process most of the time.

[Bryant]

D**n, you're good. The English language just doesn't get along with my thought process most of the time.

You taught me most of what I know

[TT-SEA]

D**n, you're good. The English language just doesn't get along with my thought process most of the time.

Yeah... the visual helps a great deal.

[BLI snowman]

I went down to Silver Falls today. Was nice. Didn't see a lot of snow.

[MossMan]

Nice day! Lake fun on tap for tomorrow!

[crf450ish]

You are a bit late to that conversation, best advice, go back to late March in this topic and start reading.

Naw, I'm good....I can't stand sifting through info. I just rather ask and if I don't get the answer I want I forget about it and move on. Thanks though. 

[IbrChris]

 

Looking ahead into next week

• Monday appears to be warmest day with ~85 PDX and ~80 SEA.
• PDX may see 3 or 4 days of 80+ Sunday-Wednesday
• Increasing potential for convection Cascades eastward...with potential for drift into the lowlands as flow initially is SE backing to E then NE during the Wednesday-Saturday timeframe. This in response to a broad ULL settling into California.
• 6-10 day period showing a +6.5 F temp departure at PDX
• 11-15 day period remaining warm with a +3 to +5 departure across the PNW. Split-flow sending most of the energy into California/Great Basin. Given the pattern a periodic threat of convection at least Cascades eastward.

 

This ended up being a half-decent forecast in the 11-15 timeframe.