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April 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Tyler Mode

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SEA has a shot at 80 again tomorrow if the clouds/storms hold off till the evening.

 

Would make 4 straight 80+ degree days in a month that had never had 3.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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I do see where the emotional alternative is so much better. Spikes of pointless frustration, soul searching breaks from posting, sniping at others with differing opinions. Someday...

 

Liking stuff doesn't mean you have to do all of that.

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The convective forecast has Portland at a marginal risk for severe.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The convective forecast has Portland at a marginal risk for severe.

SPC has MRGL risk for N. Oregon/S. Washington mountain areas.

 

CAPE output for later today max (0-70mb AGL) 1250/2000JK/g LI's -3 to -6C and with a nice cold pool of air aloft to work with.

 

As well as BK in excess of 50kts and later this aft/eve could be rocking for some

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SPC has MRGL risk for N. Oregon/S. Washington mountain areas.

 

CAPE output for later today max (0-70mb AGL) 1250/2000JK/g LI's -3 to -6C and with a nice cold pool of air aloft to work with.

 

As well as BK in excess of 50kts and later this aft/eve could be rocking for some

 

I look to be in a pretty good spot to see something today. Hopefully I am not stuck at work until late and miss it...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Some folks should be cheering for these numbers...today's consensus departures for PDX:

1-5 day: +2.6 F
6-10 day: -0.9 F
11-15 day: -0.7 F

From weighted blend of 60% ECMWF Weeklies and 40% CFSv2:

16-20 day: +0.5 F
21-25 day: +1.3 F
26-30 day: +0.9 F

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The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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Some folks should be cheering for these numbers...today's consensus departures for PDX:

 

1-5 day: +2.6 F

6-10 day: -0.9 F

11-15 day: -0.7 F

 

From weighted blend of ECMWF Weeklies and CFSv2:

 

16-20 day: +0.5 F

21-25 day: +1.3 F

26-30 day: +0.9 F

Right around average during the time of year that climo is slowly warming up isn't exactly super exciting stuff.

 

It will be nice to have the torchiness evaporate for the time being, though.

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Right around average during the time of year that climo is slowly warming up isn't exactly super exciting stuff.

 

It will be nice to have the torchiness evaporate for the time being, though.

It's the best I can do... -_-

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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15z run of HRRR-15 min temporal resolution isn't very optimistic for storms around PDX metro. Cells fire across SW Oregon around 21z, Douglas County 23-00z, Lane County 0z-01z, very weak feature (convective debris/virga) over PDX metro around 02z. Nice cluster of storms over N Oregon Cascades/S WA Cascades 03z-05z which looks poised to drift NNW into the south Puget Sound region toward 06z-08z

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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15z run of HRRR-15 min temporal resolution isn't very optimistic for storms around PDX metro. Cells fire across SW Oregon around 21z, Douglas County 23-00z, Lane County 0z-01z, very weak feature (convective debris/virga) over PDX metro around 02z. Nice cluster of storms over N Oregon Cascades/S WA Cascades 03z-05z which looks poised to drift NNW into the south Puget Sound region toward 06z-08z

 

 

Yes... looks good here around 1 a.m.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016042014/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f18.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yes... looks good here around 1 a.m.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016042014/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f18.png

Looks like my area misses out completely. Oh well.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Was tough to leave the lake this morning, if I didn't love my job so much it would have been a "sick" day for me!

image.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Looks like my area misses out completely. Oh well.

 

 

Not at all... its moving north at that time.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016042014/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f19.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Was tough to leave the lake this morning, if I didn't love my job so much it would have been a "sick" day for me!

 

It was so beautiful at home today too. I really did not want to leave for work. I have been getting up extra early the past few days so I can spend some time outside before I have to leave for work. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It was so beautiful at home today too. I really did not want to leave for work. I have been getting up extra early the past few days so I can spend some time outside before I have to leave for work. 

 

 

Particularly when the weekend looks fairly cold and wet and unpleasant overall for being outside.    

 

Or pleasant crappiness if you have Jesse's guilty conscience over warm, sunny weather (sunny and cold > rainy and cold > sunny and warm).

 

I guess that even in the warm season, rainy and cold is better than sunny and warm.   :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Well if today does not pan out for storms in Klamath Falls, I do have more opportunities next few days.

 

Imagine if I have more t'storms this month than any other month in 2016? It would be odd to say the least.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Particularly when the weekend looks fairly cold and wet and unpleasant overall for being outside.

 

Or pleasant crappiness if you have Jesse's guilty conscience over warm, sunny weather (sunny and cold > rainy and cold > sunny and warm).

 

I guess that even in the warm season, rainy and cold is better than sunny and warm. :lol:

Leave me alone. Jesus.
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Particularly when the weekend looks fairly cold and wet and unpleasant overall for being outside.

 

Or pleasant crappiness if you have Jesse's guilty conscience over warm, sunny weather (sunny and cold > rainy and cold > sunny and warm).

 

I guess that even in the warm season, rainy and cold is better than sunny and warm. :lol:

Lol, does Jim no longer interest you?

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Lol, does Jim no longer interest you?

Jim said he wishes every April could be this nice. :)

 

He normally hates April - June here because of persistent gloominess.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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To those who care, if the GEFS/EPS are correct in their depiction of the pattern over NPAC this weekend and beyond, there's gonna be one heck of a drop in the PDO. Large scale anticyclonic flow.

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To those who care, if the GEFS/EPS are correct in their depiction of the pattern over NPAC this weekend and beyond, there's gonna be one heck of a drop in the PDO. Large scale anticyclonic flow.

12z Euro tries to rebuild ridging over us by day 10. It will likely be correct.

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12z Euro tries to rebuild ridging over us by day 10. It will likely be correct.

That might be the case, but keep in mind it's the low frequency (background) pattern that is most consequential in determining the progression of SSTAs. Whether or not there's a ridge over your head for a few days, or even a few weeks, isn't all that important from a larger scale perspective.

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FWIW, here's the 00z EPS (geopotential height anomalies) means for days 6-10 and 11-15:

 

Days 6-10

 

image.png

 

Days 11-15

 

image.png

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We had quite an early/magnificent final stratospheric warming (FW) back in March that has played a key role in allowing the strong high latitude blocking observed since.

 

I decided to perform an experimental analoging procedure using matching hypothetical top-down forcings as a lead under representative ENSO tuning. I used QBO profiling from 10-50mb, full SAO profiling, solar forcings, and BDC/O^3 prominence/relativisms, though the SAO reconstructions don't go a far back as the QBO reconstructions.

 

I have found some extremely interesting, unexpectedly conclusive results that I'll post here when I finish researching. Not only do these results lend support to the ideas expressed here, but they also further explain why some La Niña summer transitions behave differently from others, pattern/forcing wise.

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We had quite an early/magnificent final stratospheric warming (FW) back in March that has played a key role in allowing the strong high latitude blocking observed since.

 

I decided to perform an experimental analoging procedure using matching hypothetical top-down forcings as a lead under representative ENSO tuning. I used QBO profiling from 10-50mb, full SAO profiling, solar forcings, and BDC/O^3 prominence/relativisms, though the SAO reconstructions don't go a far back as the QBO reconstructions.

 

I have found some extremely interesting, unexpectedly conclusive results that I'll post here when I finish researching. Not only do these results lend support to the ideas expressed here, but they also further explain why some La Niña summer transitions behave differently from others, pattern/forcing wise.

So fall starts in May here and winter starts in July? Upper 40s and rain all of July and August? Buried in snow by Labor Day?

 

Happened many times so it was bound to happen again. :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Alas that California seems unable to produce a more worthy adversary for you.

 

Maybe all these warm anomalies are making everyone down here even stupider.

Not at all. I just don't see the point to responding when I am being bashed, completely unprovoked.

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Not at all. I just don't see the point to responding when I am being bashed, completely unprovoked.

You have provoked on here for a decade.

 

Now you are above it? :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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HRRR now puts convection over Portland around 10 p.m. which mostly misses the Seattle area later.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2016042019/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f10.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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So fall starts in May here and winter starts in July? Upper 40s and rain all of July and August? Buried in snow by Labor Day?

 

Happened many times so it was bound to happen again. :)

Haha.

 

I think you'll be happy with the summer overall. This isn't going to be the reincarnation of 1964/2011 et al. There should be plenty of warmth in A/M/J. While J/A/S will probably finish cooler than average, it won't be anything ridiculous or noteworthy other than the fact that it'll represent the breaking of a warm background regimen that began in January of 2013, when the W/H-NPAC relationship was radically altered by a major SSW>TTL/MJO response (on what turned turned out to be a semi-permanent basis).

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Haha.

 

I think you'll be happy with the summer overall. This isn't going to be the reincarnation of 1964/2011 et al. There should be plenty of warmth in A/M/J. While J/A/S will probably finish cooler than average, it won't be anything ridiculous or noteworthy other than the fact that it'll represent the breaking of a warm background regimen that began in January of 2013, when the W/H-NPAC relationship was radically altered by a major SSW>TTL/MJO response (on what turned turned out to be a semi-permanent basis).

 

 

Sounds about right.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I've toned it down a lot in recent years. You yourself will even admit that on days you are feeling less adversarial.

 

 

You constantly ride Matt for enjoying warm weather and calling it 'nice'.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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