April 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Troughy...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_264_500_vort_ht.gif

[Phil]

SEA average temp:

 

May - 55

June - 60

July - 65

August - 65

September - 60

 

 

May could be +3 and July and August could be -3 and even in that example summer still peaks in July and August in terms of warmth.

 

I think the problem with Phil's terminology is that he is looking at a macro level and he does not understand how much cooler and wetter that May and June are here on average. Maybe an east coast bias. Its almost impossible for summer to peak here in May and June and for July and August to be colder and wetter. July and August are almost always warmer and drier than May and June... and July and August are almost always tangibly the peak of summer here.

How many times to I have to say "relative to average" for you to understand that's the angle I'm taking? Holy crap dude.

[TT-SEA]

How many times to I have to say "relative to average" for you to understand that's the angle I'm taking? Holy crap dude.

 

 

If April is way above normal... its not the peak of summer.    

 

You term 'peak of summer' is misleading... its always in July and August here.      

[Front Ranger]

In terms of anomalies in SEA, June was -1 compared to 1981-2010 averages, July was -2.3, August was -.5, and September was -3. At PDX June was -.8, July was -2.7, August was -.4, and September was -3.4. So even in terms of anomalies, that Summer peaked in August. May was warm but I don't think anybody considers that a Summer month around here.

2/3 months July-Sep were well below average. You could argue that summer was just plain cool overall, and you'd be right, but overall the warm season anomalies peaked in May/June, which is what Phil is referring to.

 

As someone who lived in the PNW for 25 years, I can say that while May is not a summer month, it can be quite summery at times, with lengthy stretches of warm and dry.

[TT-SEA]

2/3 months July-Sep were well below average. You could argue that summer was just plain cool overall, and you'd be right, but overall the warm season anomalies peaked in May/June, which is what Phil is referring to.

 

As someone who lived in the PNW for 25 years, I can say that while May is not a summer month, it can be quite summery at times, with lengthy stretches of warm and dry.

 

 

I understand what he is saying about anomalies.   I get that.   But July and August will be the "peak of summer" even if they are colder than normal.

[Deweydog]

Soooooooooooo.... what have we learned???

[BLI snowman]

I think this summer will peak in February anomaly wise and re-peak on April 30 before a gradual collapse around the Flag Day period.

[snow_wizard]

Are there any recent analogs you're looking at? I just have a hard time taking those early 20th century ones too seriously. It's kind of like if Jim used 1889-90 as a winter analog for this year, which I know you'd immediately shoot down.

 

And for the record (not that anybody really cares), my guess is this summer ends up a bit warmer than the 1981-2010 averages, but nothing crazy. 

 

ENSO wise 1889-90 will be an analog for next winter.

[TT-SEA]

ENSO wise 1889-90 will be an analog for next winter.

 

An absolutely spectacular summer in 1889.

 

April of 1889 started with a warm spell that had Portland close to 80 on a couple days.      May and June were really nice.   July was very hot and dry.   August was very warm... still warm in the middle of September.    In fact... the very warm, dry conditions were partly to blame for the Great Seattle Fire that year.

 

The spring of 1889 in Seattle had been beautiful. There had been little rain, and temperatures were consistently in the 70s. Unfortunately, the unusually good weather proved to be disastrous, as the dry conditions conspired with a handful of other elements to allow for the worst fire in city history

 

And then the awesome January of 1890 to follow.   

 

Strong Nino to Nina transition in a low solar period.    I cannot find anything wrong with 1889.  

[BLI snowman]

ENSO wise 1889-90 will be an analog for next winter.

 

Doubt it, that was easily among the strongest Ninas on record (since 1871). 

[Front Ranger]

Doubt it, that was easily among the strongest Ninas on record (since 1871).

But strong Ninas are bad (Tim). So confusing.

[TT-SEA]

But strong Ninas are bad (Tim). So confusing.

 

 

Just playing the odds... a weaker Nina seems to be better overall for blocking.

[Jesse]

Starting to look like we could see a nice crash after the hot ridge late next week. I always love that progression this time of year.

[TT-SEA]

Starting to look like we could see a nice crash after the hot ridge late next week. I always love that progression this time of year.

Definitely looking more troughy in the long range.

 

 

Beautiful day.

[Jesse]

Definitely looking more troughy in the long range.

 

 

Beautiful day.

It's wonderful out. Third day in a row we've gone hiking.

[DareDuck]

Agreed it's a beautiful day. Around 50 with a light breeze at Bachelor. Still plenty of snow with a 9-12' base.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is way cooler for Friday. Big crash that day.

[Timmy Supercell]

Cumulus clouds out and about in Klamath Falls. Seeing some dark base development to my south/SW. I hope this turns into actual convection this afternoon. NWS Medford hinted at a small chance of thunderstorms for the cascades and surrounding areas.

 

... time to power up my dusty old GR radars. They've been collecting layers of dust since September.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF ensembles are much less aggressive with a cool down and troughing in the long range than the operational run.

 

I would expect the 00Z run to back off somewhat.

[Timmy Supercell]

Other than a potential rumbler near Fort Klamath (about 50 or so miles north) nothing showed up around here. I might just have to wait until early May before I get storms.

[Jesse]

18z ensembles cooler than the operational.

[TT-SEA]

18z ensembles cooler than the operational.

 

 

It will be interesting to see the 00Z ECMWF.   Almost has to go a in a warmer direction based on its ensemble mean.

 

Two days of yardwork and sunshine has me happily beat so might not make it until midnight.  

[Jesse]

It will be interesting to see the 00Z ECMWF. Almost has to go a in a warmer direction based on its ensemble mean.

 

Two days of yardwork and sunshine has me happily beat so might not make it until midnight.

I've never understood people who spend the entirety of a nice day or two putzing around the yard. What a waste. We live in such a beautiful area. Get out and explore!

[snow_wizard]

Looks like Thursday will be the hottest day as a thermal trough forms off the Coast. I am thinking a high of 85 to 90 degrees at PDX on Thursday.

 

 

 

I think PDX will hit 3 straight days in the 80s from Wednesday to Friday.

 

 

 

Certainly historic.

[snow_wizard]

I've never understood people who spend the entirety of a nice day or two putzing around the yard. What a waste. We live in such a beautiful area. Get out and explore!

 

This time of year you have to or the yard goes to hell.  I do my fun stuff later when it really gets nice.

[TT-SEA]

I've never understood people who spend the entirety of a nice day or two putzing around the yard. What a waste. We live in such a beautiful area. Get out and explore!

 

Its not putzing.   Its very rewarding.   Gardening is also being close to nature.   They say its great for your health.   We do family hikes all the time... we have seen every trail and mountain peak in this area many times.    Its more rewarding sometimes to be at home enjoying our yard and quiet family time without driving all over the place.   We basically live in a place that many people come to see and hike anyways.

 

We work hard and then take breaks and enjoy a cold drink and talk... or play yard games.   Its actually our favorite time.    I get sort of anxious when schedules and weather prevent us from being out there.

 

You feel the need to rush out and see forests and mountains every waking minute.   We live in the forest and see mountains all around us.    

 

And in the summer we will be out doing many other things.  

[TT-SEA]

My son went skiing yesterday with some friends at Snoqualmie Summit.     He was wearing just shorts and a t-shirt while skiing... but when he started doing jumps a fear of falling made him put his snow pants back on.  

 

The kid is way more of a daredevil than me for sure!

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Well well.. I actually DID end up with a t'storm. One with fairly frequent lightning for an early-April type t'storm that is. I am compiling some video of this, I hope it turned out great. 

 

If this one qualified as a warm core thunderstorm, it has to be my earliest of any year I have been here, by at least a month or so early.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS followed the 12Z ECMWF.

[MossMan]

Its not putzing. Its very rewarding. Gardening is also being close to nature. They say its great for your health. We do family hikes all the time... we have seen every trail and mountain peak in this area many times. Its more rewarding sometimes to be at home enjoying our yard and quiet family time without driving all over the place. We basically live in a place that many people come to see and hike anyways.

 

We work hard and then take breaks and enjoy a cold drink and talk... or play yard games. Its actually our favorite time. I get sort of anxious when schedules and weather prevent us from being out there.

 

You feel the need to rush out and see forests and mountains every waking minute. We live in the forest and see mountains all around us.

 

And in the summer we will be out doing many other things.

The older I get the more I enjoy just hanging out at home working in the yard and putzing around. My daughter helps me out, the dogs are all playing and running, it's just simply nice and relaxing...plus I'm not out fighting traffic to look at tulips, or hiking crowded trails. But we have 2 acres and are surrounded by woods with our neighbor on one side having 20 acres and the other having 5. Nice, quiet and peaceful. And of course having the family lake house just 10 minutes away is such a privilege, I see hoards of people cramming into the two parks at Lake Goodwin and just wonder how people could even find that fun in anyway. I guess everyone is different that way. The timing of the rain was perfect...just starting to sprinkle at 9:20pm on Sunday night!!

[Jesse]

Certainly historic.

Blizzard's posts are not accurate. There is no way PDX sees three days over 80, or temps 85-90.

[Jesse]

Its not putzing. Its very rewarding. Gardening is also being close to nature. They say its great for your health. We do family hikes all the time... we have seen every trail and mountain peak in this area many times. Its more rewarding sometimes to be at home enjoying our yard and quiet family time without driving all over the place. We basically live in a place that many people come to see and hike anyways.

 

We work hard and then take breaks and enjoy a cold drink and talk... or play yard games. Its actually our favorite time. I get sort of anxious when schedules and weather prevent us from being out there.

 

You feel the need to rush out and see forests and mountains every waking minute. We live in the forest and see mountains all around us.

 

And in the summer we will be out doing many other things.

Sounds great. I'm glad to hear you do both.

 

And I love traveling and hiking. Always have and always well. Anybody who even thinks for a minute that the drives and trails are somehow crowded and stressful clearly doesn't realize how truly large and varied our region is, and probably only have visited the popular, on the beaten path spots that everyone else visits. Sad.

[Deweydog]

Y'all better start toeing the line with your recreational activities.

[snow_wizard]

Blizzard's posts are not accurate. There is no way PDX sees three days over 80, or temps 85-90.

 

I dunno...the numbers are looking pretty spectacular.  Big Nino to Nina transitions can see amazing warmth in the spring.  I do think we will see a flip side a bit later on though.

[Jesse]

I dunno...the numbers are looking pretty spectacular. Big Nino to Nina transitions can see amazing warmth in the spring. I do think we will see a flip side a bit later on though.

Sure...but the models don't really suport the kind of numbers he's throwing out. Thursday looks pretty good for 80-85, but both Wednesday and Friday will be in the 70s if current runs are to be believed. The warmest airmass appears to be pretty quick-hitting.

 

Still a very respectable warm spell for this early, part of the bigger picture of what will be looked back on as a notably warm first ten days of April on the whole.

[Deweydog]

85 or 86 on Thursday wouldn't surprise me one bit at this point. That would put the event in pretty rarified air.

[Timmy Supercell]

Here it is folks. 1st video is the highlight shot with slow motion lightning. 2nd video is the full t'storm video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Jz1ROcYprI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjdNHyxUCv0

 

[James Jones]

85 or 86 on Thursday wouldn't surprise me one bit at this point. That would put the event in pretty rarified air.

Yep, definitely looking like a historic warm spell. If we did manage to get that warm, it'd be the earliest 85 on record by three weeks at PDX, though downtown has hit 87 as early as the 12th.

 

I'm probably just asking for a sarcastic reply here, but do you have any predictions for this Summer (cool or warm, dry or wet, early/late peak, etc)?

[Deweydog]

Yep, definitely looking like a historic warm spell. If we did manage to get that warm, it'd be the earliest 85 on record by three weeks at PDX, though downtown has hit 87 as early as the 12th.

 

I'm probably just asking for a sarcastic reply here, but do you have any predictions for this Summer (cool or warm, dry or wet, early/late peak, etc)?

How's this, summer will be warmer than it is right now.

 

I don't have much of an opinion right now and generally don't get much of a feel for summer all that often. I suspect it's by far the most difficult season to predict for the fact wavelengths are so short, forcing so weak and the fact our area is so susceptible to significant swings based on fairly subtle changes to the 500mb pattern. I'll take stab at it in a few weeks for fun.

[IbrChris]

Looks like Thursday will be the hottest day as a thermal trough forms off the Coast. I am thinking a high of 85 to 90 degrees at PDX on Thursday.

 

 

Possible but 82-85 seems more likely on Thurs, with potential for 77-80 on Wed. Friday most models push the thermal trough east of the Cascades and we are solidly back in onshore flow similar to this past Saturday with highs 70-75.

 

I don't see a major cooldown though, just not crazy record heat during the 6-10 day timeframe.