Rate the Winter

[Black Hole]

It's about that time again to rate the winter. How was it where you lived?

 

Salt Lake City Ut: C+.

 

Pros:

18.5" snowstorm at my house mid December. 

Continuous and deep snow cover mid Dec to mid Feb. 

Several storms concentrated in a short period.

Several very strong cold fronts with huge temperature drops, lightning/thunder, graupel, and snow.

A week of very cold temperatures with a sub zero low. 

 

Cons:

Snowfall was about 65% of normal.

First real snow didn't occur until mid December.

Multiple huge storms fell apart at the last minute on the models.

General lack of large systems outside of one key stretch.

 

[Thunder98]

In Orcutt this winter was very disappointing! December was cooler han normal which was nice but weak to low end moderate storms were the theme with cold and sunny days mixed in there. January had above average rainfall. February was very warm and dry!

 

I rate this winter a D-    

 

Rainfall totals by month and measurable rain days at least 0.01". (Santa Maria Public Airport)

 

Month       |        Actual    |   Average     |   %   |    Days  

 

December:        1.12"            2.12"          53%       9 

 

January:             2.93"           2.75"         107%      14

 

February:             0.35"           2.99"          12%        2

[Guest happ]

It's been a major disappointment in SoCal and leaves us in drought conditions.  The rainyear [jul-jun] started off great due to dying hurricanes [over 3 inches before the end of October] only to go mostly dry through Nov & Dec.  Only one big storm [3"] in early Jan otherwise there were two storms [under 1.00] until early March [over 1.00]. & mid March [under 1.00].  It has been a horrible winter.  Dec and Jan were cooler than normal but Feb went off the charts for historic heat.  

[Phil]

This is a long post. I made sure to triple-check all my numbers and statistics for accuracy, and tried to be as objective as possible. Bear with me if interested.

 

For the DC area: B+ overall.

 

Honestly, I probably would have rated it a C+, but last night's cyclone was so impressive that I can't fathom giving it a grade that low. To break this rating down a bit:

 

Snowfall grade: A

Temperature grade: F

Dynamics grade: B (thanks to last night's cyclone).

 

Breakdown:

 

Snowfall

 

Overall: A

Seasonal snowfall total: 43.3". A

Number of snow events: 7 (including last night). D

Heaviest snowfall: ~35". A+

Heaviest snow-rate: ~ 5.5"/hr (4/2 cyclone, 0.5"/3mins). A+

 

Temperature

 

Overall: F

Lowest temp (not including post-blizzard): 9 degrees. F

Lowest temperature, snow-enhanced: -1F. C

Winter departure from normal: +7.7 degrees. F.

Warmest winter on record: LOL. F-

 

Dynamics

 

Overall: B

Offseason thunderstorm events: 2, one was historic. A

Wind Advisory events/45+mph: 7. D

High Wind Warning events/over 58mph: 2. B

Highest Gust: Magnetic reed switch broken on anemometer during February microburst, but gusts were estimated well over 80mph. Also measured 68mph during 4/2 cyclone. A+

 

Highlights:

 

1) January blizzard, ~ 35" total, a very close lightning strike (prolonged period of thundersnow with the deformation band) plus wind gusts to 47mph here, up to ~ 90mph at the coast.

 

2) Severe Thunderstorm and microburst in late February. Monster line of storms under an 80kt LLJ delivered 80-100mph winds to a small portion of the region, along with baseball sized hail, intense lightning, and flooding rains. Thousands of trees snapped/uprooted, roofs ripped off houses, windows blown in, even some concrete power lines snapped off at the base by the force of the wind alone. Very early in the season for a storm of this intensity.

 

3) February snow/ice storm, about 4" of snow followed by a transition to freezing rain, of which we ended up with about a quarter inch of ice accretion.

 

4) Early April cyclone/windstorm/thunderstorm/snow squall event. Occurred last night, heaviest snow of the winter after a 70 degree day, line of thunderstorms, and subsequent windstorm. Winds hit 68mph here, measured 66mph at IAD, 74mph in wintergreen, 82mph at Snowshoe, 61mph in Martinsburg, 59mph at DCA.

 

In a period of 8 hours, we observed:

 

1) A high of 68 degrees

2) A thunderstorm delivering 62mph and graupel/small hail.

3) A temperature drop from 61 to 43 in 25 minutes

4) A period of gradient winds between 60-70mph, over 80mph in the mountains.

5) A snow squall featuring the most intense snowfall rates of the winter, brief accumulations that melted soon after.

 

Disappointments:

 

1) Warmest winter on record here, overall. Lowest temperature here (not counting the snow-enhanced lows after the blizzard) was 9 degrees, which was only a -14 degree departure. A very pathetic winter in terms of cold temperatures. We did drop to -1 degree on the night following the blizzard, but that's typical after a big snowfall, and was actually not impressive compared to the radiative cooling following most of our other big blizzards.

 

2) Blowtorch December. Warmest December on record by a huge margin. It was thundering and 78 degrees at 3AM on Christmas Eve, magnolias were blooming, leaves were coming out on some trees. Truly nightmarish.

 

3) Very stagnant. Despite last night's windstorm, there had been very few wind events here prior. One of the worst winters I can recall in terms of properly phased, dynamic storm systems.

 

4) Rapid snow melt. After the blizzard, I witnessed one of the fastest and most horrific snow melts of my life. That snowpack was owned by warmth, rain, and sunshine before it ever had a chance to settle in.

 

So overall, while this winter had flashes of greatness, they were relatively brief, and surrounded by a sea of boredom. Hence, I cannot rate this winter higher than a B+.

[TT-SEA]

Good write-up Phil.   

[snow_wizard]

I suppose a D- thanks to the fact it was at least chillier than 2014-15 during the mid Dec to mid Jan period.  Pretty much endless gloom and dampness.  Pretty awful.

[Phil]

Good write-up Phil.

Thank you.

 

Ironically, statistically speaking, this winter was so warm here that next winter will probably be colder overall (even under a strong La Niña/-QBO, which is historically the worst combination for us).

 

I'll probably regurgitate that factoid in my head as we torch into oblivion through the next 10-15 months, haha.

[snow_wizard]

Thank you.

 

Ironically, statistically speaking, this winter was so warm here that next winter will probably be colder overall (even under a strong La Niña/-QBO, which is historically the worst combination for us).

 

I'll probably regurgitate that factoid in my head as we torch into oblivion through the next 10-15 months, haha.

 

For this area it can only get better.  The past two winters certainly goes down as one of the worst pairs in history.  Only 1939 - 40 / 1940 - 41 give it any real competition.

[TT-SEA]

I suppose a D- thanks to the fact it was at least chillier than 2014-15 during the mid Dec to mid Jan period.  Pretty much endless gloom and dampness.  Pretty awful.

 

I will grudgingly give it a C

 

Mostly because we had snow on the ground for almost 30 days and did have quite a few sunny days with that snow.

 

Otherwise this winter was far too wet and cloudy.to be enjoyable.

[BLI snowman]

For this area it can only get better. The past two winters certainly goes down as one of the worst pairs in history. Only 1939 - 40 / 1940 - 41 give it any real competition.

1943-44 and 1944-45 were pretty sucky as well. 1945-46 as well just for good measure.

[BLI snowman]

I'd give it a D.

 

The late November to beginning of January stretch probably earns a B- for its consistent action and occasional cold. The rest of the winter gets an F.

 

Overall, less than 2" of snow, mild temps, and no major events made for a pretty lame year but at least it wasn't a truly historic turd.

[Dan the Weatherman]

For the greater L.A. area in Socal, this winter gets a big F. Strong El Ninos have delivered in a huge way in years past with Los Angeles receiving 20+" in most events. This year, L.A. has only received 9.36" to date since July 1, and 2.39" of that came in July and September! This leaves the winter with an extremely paltry 6.59", bad for ANY year, but absolutely terrible for a strong El Nino. I honestly expected a much wetter season than this, more like a 1982-83 or a 1997-98, but if it weren't the case, I would have expected 20" or so. It seems that the PNW got much more rain than normal for an El Nino event, setting records for the second wettest winter to date in Seattle, while Socal got shafted this season.

 

Something obviously is going on in recent years, since after the 1998 season, that is modifying our weather patterns in a big way and not allowing traditional weather patterns of the past to behave like they used to or inhibiting them altogether.

 

There is always a chance that April and May could be wetter than normal, but I don't think there is any hope of approaching 20" for the season, though, unless we are really lucky.

[snow_wizard]

1943-44 and 1944-45 were pretty sucky as well. 1945-46 as well just for good measure.

 

There was more cold scattered through that period.  There was an extraordinary snow event in April one of those seasons as well.  But yeah that period sucked pretty bad.  Another really bad three year run was 1998 - 99 through 2000 - 01 except for the Dec 1998 blast.

 

It is certainly interesting how many turds there were in the 1940s just before the amazing 1946-47 through 1956-57 period.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would say a C-. Probably a D- for cold, but a C+ for snowfall... I have yet to update my signature, but my seasonal snowfall ended up being 12.25". 

[MossMan]

C- for me. We did have some pretty good windstorms, and sticking snow Christmas Eve morning.

[Guest happ]

For the greater L.A. area in Socal, this winter gets a big F. Strong El Ninos have delivered in a huge way in years past with Los Angeles receiving 20+" in most events. This year, L.A. has only received 9.36" to date since July 1, and 2.39" of that came in July and September! This leaves the winter with an extremely paltry 6.59", bad for ANY year, but absolutely terrible for a strong El Nino. I honestly expected a much wetter season than this, more like a 1982-83 or a 1997-98, but if it weren't the case, I would have expected 20" or so. It seems that the PNW got much more rain than normal for an El Nino event, setting records for the second wettest winter to date in Seattle, while Socal got shafted this season.

 

Something obviously is going on in recent years, since after the 1998 season, that is modifying our weather patterns in a big way and not allowing traditional weather patterns of the past to behave like they used to or inhibiting them altogether.

 

There is always a chance that April and May could be wetter than normal, but I don't think there is any hope of approaching 20" for the season, though, unless we are really lucky.

 

There actually are stations in parts of SoCal that are still above normal or much above normal for rainfall due to summer/ autumn systems.  Parts of Death Valley are still closed due to flood damage.  If the monsoon/ tropical systems were more reliable than I would feel less anxious by dry winters.  La Nina conditions suppress summer rainfall but winters can be very wet so maybe next year will end the drought.

[Front Ranger]

For this area it can only get better.  The past two winters certainly goes down as one of the worst pairs in history.  Only 1939 - 40 / 1940 - 41 give it any real competition.

 

1986-87 and 1987-88 were right up there as well.

[Front Ranger]

B- for here. 

 

Snowfall: A little above normal, with a couple big storms, one really big. Good snow cover most of December through early January, spotty after that.

 

Temps: Above normal, but not a total blowtorch. No real impressive cold spells, unlike most recent years.

 

The March blizzard bumped it up from a C-.

[BLI snowman]

I would say a C-. Probably a D- for cold, but a C+ for snowfall... I have yet to update my signature, but my seasonal snowfall ended up being 12.25". 

 

I think your standards are pretty low right now if 12" there nets a slightly above average snowfall score from you. Your location likely averages 40"+. 

[snow_wizard]

1986-87 and 1987-88 were right up there as well.

 

1987-88 actually was decently cold at times.

[bainbridgekid]

I think your standards are pretty low right now if 12" there nets a slightly above average snowfall score from you. Your location likely averages 40"+. 

C+ is above average to you?

 

Your teachers must have just loved you. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think your standards are pretty low right now if 12" there nets a slightly above average snowfall score from you. Your location likely averages 40"+. 

 

If I was rating this winter after 2011-12, my first winter living here, I would have given it an F. The past two winters were pretty snow starved. I did have sticking snow in every month November-March so that counts for a little. But overall anything compared to last year seems pretty frigid. I think what has really stuck out the past two years have been how much warmer the March-May period has been. 

[Abbotsford_wx]

I give it a "D-" overall, and that seems generous. It was more like an extended fall than a winter. There was very little of note aside from some heavy rain and wind events. There was virtually no snow or cold to speak of, and it rained on 80% of days in Dec-Feb.

Snowfall

Overall: F
Seasonal snowfall total: 0.8" (F)
Number of snow events: 3 (D-)
Heaviest snowfall: 0.4" (F)

Temperature

Overall: D-
Number of sub-freezing lows: 31 (D)
Number of sub-freezing highs: 0 (F)
Lowest temperature: 20.5F (D-)
Winter departure from normal: +2.8F (D)

Dynamics

Overall: C- (bordering on C)
Arctic outbreaks: 0 (F)
Continental air masses: 1 (D-)
High wind events: 10 (A)
Heavy rain events (1" or greater in a 24 hour period): 6 (B )


Note: Average in all categories would be a "C".

[Front Ranger]

1987-88 actually was decently cold at times.

 

So was 2015-16 early on. Neither produced much in the way of lowland snowfall.

[BLI snowman]

C+ is above average to you?

 

Your teachers must have just loved you. 

 

The C+ that I got in 8th grade P.E. was the pinnacle of my educational experience.