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Early April Scorchin' Summer Preview Contest


Jesse

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I haven't looked very closely, but it looks hot! I guess you didn't need me to tell you that. 

  • Like 1

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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To score, points are given each day for the amount of degrees by which the high was off plus the amount of degrees by which the low was off. Whoever gets the fewest points wins:

 

Jesse's Forecast

 

76/42 (5)

83/48 (3)

77/52 (7)

68/51 (1)

62/48 (3)

Total Points: 19

 

Matt's Forecast:

 

79/44 (10)

85/49 (2)

80/53 (5)

70/48 (4)

70/48 (11)

Total Points: 32

 

Congratulations Jesse!

 

Better luck next time, Matt. :(

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To score, points are given each day for the amount of degrees by which the high was off plus the amount of degrees by which the low was off. Whoever gets the fewest points wins:

 

Jesse's Forecast

 

76/42 (5)

83/48 (3)

77/52 (6)

68/51 (1)

62/48 (4)

Total Points: 19

 

Matt's Forecast:

 

79/44 (10)

85/49 (2)

80/53 (5)

70/48 (4)

70/48 (12)

Total Points: 33

 

Congratulations Jesse!

 

Better luck next time, Matt. :(

I think this is the first time anyone has scored a Heat related contest. Your math is really close but I have your score as 20, not that it matters in the end.
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Of course people who hate warm weather will predict higher temperatures than people who hate cold weather, assuming each of them are pessimists. If they're optimists, it could be the other way around. So I'm assuming Jesse is an optimist.

 

Pessimism/optimism should have no place in forecasting, at least if you are going for accuracy.

 

Forecasts should be based objectively on what appears to be most likely.

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