The "Dewey's Second Chance" Post Tax-Day Scorchin' April Nicewave Contest! ~ Part Deux (y)

[Jesse]

Updated overall score, as of the morning of 4/17:

 

Shawnigan: 3.5 points

 

Dewey: 4 points

 

Jesse: 4 points

 

Phil: 4 points

 

Bainbridge: 5.5 points

 

Flatiron: 7 points

 

Justin: 7 points

 

Tim: 8.5 points

 

James Jones: 9 points

 

Mark Nelsen: 13 points

[Jesse]

I will make the distinction between winner of PDX, SEA and overall once all of the numbers are in. A little time consuming to do day by day updates for all three.

[Jesse]

Long live Tuesday!!!

Tuesday's gone with the wind.

[Phil]

Tuesday's gone with the wind.

Might be almost as warm as Monday in some places. I wish I'd gone a bit warmer..was thinking about low/mid 80s for highs at both stations, but got cold feet and went conservative.

[Jesse]

Might be almost as warm as Monday in some places. I wish I'd gone a bit warmer..was thinking about low 80s for highs at both stations but got cold feet and went conservative.

 

12Z GFS says Tuesday is warmer than Monday.

[Phil]

Apparently I have a warm overnight bias @ PDX. Missed high on all three lows so far.

[Phil]

12Z GFS says Tuesday is warmer than Monday.

Lol, that'd be a forum-wide pwnage.

[Jesse]

Lol, that'd be a forum-wide pwnage.

 

At least everyone would be pwnd equally based on what information was available on Friday night.

[Jesse]

Apparently I have a warm overnight bias @ PDX. Missed high on all three lows so far.

 

Join the club. No really, there's a club. Dewey, Mark and Tim meet every other Wednesday afternoon at Skippers.

[Deweydog]

Tuesday's gone with the wind.

More like Tuesday's gone with the totally awesome!

[TT-SEA]

Does being wrong in the two different directions offset by any chance and average out?  

[Jesse]

Does being wrong in the two different directions offset by any chance and average out?

I was thinking about that, but no, probably not. This contest is about forecasting daily highs and lows, not daily averages.

[Deweydog]

Should have left my 81 for today alone. I knew it, and now I'm paying the price. Shame!!!

[Phil]

Dang, SEA hit 80? A lot of busts on that one, myself included.

[Front Ranger]

Dang, SEA hit 80? A lot of busts on that one, myself included.

 

The old SEA was usually 1-3 degrees cooler than OLM and 4-6 degrees cooler than PDX in heat events.

 

The new SEA is generally within a degree of OLM and 2-4 degrees cooler than PDX.

[Deweydog]

The old SEA was usually 1-3 degrees cooler than OLM and 4-6 degrees cooler than PDX in heat events.

 

The new SEA is generally within a degree of OLM and 2-4 degrees cooler than PDX.

This sounds made up.

[Front Ranger]

This sounds made up.

 

You should know by now. I don't make things up.

[Deweydog]

You should know by now. I don't make things up.

Do you have the numbers?

[Front Ranger]

Do you have the numbers?

 

Just look at warm season heat events from the past 10 years. 

 

I observe things close enough, and have for a long time.

[Deweydog]

Just look at warm season heat events from the past 10 years.

 

I observe things close enough, and have for a long time.

Seems situational to me, as it has for a long time. Only have to go back 10 days or so to find an example.

[Front Ranger]

Seems situational to me, as it has for a long time. Only have to go back 10 days or so to find an example.

 

Of course. I'm talking averages, for the peak of the event. Today SEA was within a degree of PDX, but that's not the average.

 

Any time SEA has a northerly wind, which they often due during heat events, they tend to get warmer than they used to (in relation to other stations). Reasons for this have been discussed.

[Deweydog]

Of course. I'm talking averages, for the peak of the event. Today SEA was within a degree of PDX, but that's not the average.

 

Any time SEA has a northerly wind, which they often due during heat events, they tend to get warmer than they used to (in relation to other stations). Reasons for this have been discussed.

Runaway runways!

[ShawniganLake]

Dang, SEA hit 80? A lot of busts on that one, myself included.

Seems like 74/75 was the concensus. All low. Bunch of cold biased hacks we are here.

[Phil]

Seems like 74/75 was the concensus. All low. Bunch of cold biased hacks we are here.

I completely forgot about the third runway/north wind phenomenon at SEA. I remember it now, though, and recall it being fairly obvious and straightforward in the data.

[Jesse]

Updated Score thru 4/17:

 

Dewey: 5

 

Jesse: 7

 

Phil: 9

 

Shawnigan: 9

 

James Jones: 10

 

Flatiron: 10.5

 

Bainbridge: 12

 

Tim: 12.5

 

Justin: 14

 

Mark Nelsen: 20

[Jesse]

Mark's killin' it!

[ShawniganLake]

Updated Score thru 4/17:

 

Dewey: 5

 

Jesse: 7

 

Phil: 9

 

Shawnigan: 9

 

James Jones: 10

 

Flatiron: 10.5

 

Bainbridge: 12

 

Tim: 12.5

 

Justin: 14

 

Mark Nelsen: 20

Not sure if you are using a spreadsheet to tabulate these or not. If we have someone here that is good with that type of thing, not me, I believe it is possible to create a file and put it on "onedrive". Then people can access it to enter their guesses and the results are calculated automatically. Would save a lot of work in future contests as the same general file should be useable for all contests, or at least temperature related ones. Just entering the actual temperatures for each station is all that would be needed.

[bainbridgekid]

Updated Score thru 4/17:

 

Dewey: 5

 

Jesse: 7

 

Phil: 9

 

Shawnigan: 9

 

James Jones: 10

 

Flatiron: 10.5

 

Bainbridge: 12

 

Tim: 12.5

 

Justin: 14

 

Mark Nelsen: 20

How are you calculating these again with some people only forecasting for PDX?

[Phil]

How are you calculating these again with some people only forecasting for PDX?

He's taking the average of our combined daily point total accumulated at both stations (basically cutting the daily total in half).

 

So if Jesse accumulates 4pts at PDX today, and we accumulate 6pts combined at PDX/SEA, we finish with 3pts, he finishes with 4pts. Fairly straightforward and statistically reasonable, in my opinion.

[Jesse]

How are you calculating these again with some people only forecasting for PDX?

Using the law of averages, of course.

[Jesse]

He's taking the average of our combined daily point total accumulated at both stations (basically cutting the daily total in half).

 

So if Jesse accumulates 4pts at PDX today, and we accumulate 6pts combined at PDX/SEA, we finish with 3pts, he finishes with 4pts. Fairly straightforward and statistically reasonable, in my opinion.

Thanks. Yeah, it was really the only fair way I could think of calculating things with some people only doing forecasts for PDX and others doing both. I do plan to break the scores up into categories of winner for SEA, winner for PDX and overal winner once the final numbers come in, though.

[Jesse]

Not sure if you are using a spreadsheet to tabulate these or not. If we have someone here that is good with that type of thing, not me, I believe it is possible to create a file and put it on "onedrive". Then people can access it to enter their guesses and the results are calculated automatically. Would save a lot of work in future contests as the same general file should be useable for all contests, or at least temperature related ones. Just entering the actual temperatures for each station is all that would be needed.

I'm not, just a word file with all of the forecasts plus the actual numbers, and some quick mental math. It actually has't been very burdensome or time comsuming at all. In fact, I find it kind of fun doing it this way. But if anyone knows Excel well enough to develop the method you are referring to for future forecasts, I am certainly open to that.

[Jesse]

Updated score thru 4/18:

 

Dewey: 7

 

Jesse: 9

 

James Jones: 12

 

Phil: 14

 

Shawnigan: 15

 

Flatiron: 15.5

 

Bainbridge: 18.5

 

Tim: 19

 

Justin: 21.5

 

Mark Nelsen: 22

[TT-SEA]

I was just way too cool for SEA.

 

Yesterday I had 82/50 at SEA and they come in with 89/54.

 

I will learn some day to forecast warmer!

[ShawniganLake]

I was just way too cool for SEA.

 

Yesterday I had 82/50 at SEA and they come in with 89/54.

 

I will learn someday to forecast warmer!

No surprise that the top 3 didn't attempt to forecast Seattle. It was been running crazy warmer than most thought.

[Jesse]

No surprise that the top 3 didn't attempt to forecast Seattle. It was been running crazy warmer than most thought.

 

Clearly rigged.

 

Like I said, I am going to put together winners for SEA, PDX and overall once all of the numbers are in.

[Front Ranger]

I was just way too cool for SEA.

 

Yesterday I had 82/50 at SEA and they come in with 89/54.

 

I will learn some day to forecast warmer!

 

The people who didn't forecast SEA had it easier this time around, as that's where everyone missed by the most.

 

EDIT: I see this was already noted. 

[Jesse]

The people who didn't forecast SEA had it easier this time around, as that's where everyone missed by the most.

 

EDIT: I see this was already noted.

Not true. Mark only forecast for PDX and has missed by over 20 points so far...

[ShawniganLake]

Clearly rigged.

 

Like I said, I am going to put together winners for SEA, PDX and overall once all of the numbers are in.

Haha, not what I was implying. But as it stands, I believe someone could in theory win for both Seattle and PDX but lose the overall. Not that it really matters.

[bainbridgekid]

Haha, not what I was implying. But as it stands, I believe someone could in theory win for both Seattle and PDX but lose the overall. Not that it really matters.