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2-17 Lower Lakes Winter Storm


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I posted this in the Feb thread, didn't see this one. 

 

Here is Euro for Monday in Madison.  They seem to be in a good spot Monday.

 

Here is the Euro for Madison Monday; FYI for those interested.

MON 18Z 17-FEB  -4.3    -0.4    1005      85      99    0.11     546     542    TUE 00Z 18-FEB  -3.2    -7.6     998      93      97    0.35     531     532    TUE 06Z 18-FEB  -4.3    -5.4    1005      84      80    0.04     533     529    
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I posted this in the Feb thread, didn't see this one. 

 

Here is Euro for Monday in Madison.  They seem to be in a good spot Monday.

 

Here is the Euro for Madison Monday; FYI for those interested.

MON 18Z 17-FEB  -4.3    -0.4    1005      85      99    0.11     546     542    TUE 00Z 18-FEB  -3.2    -7.6     998      93      97    0.35     531     532    TUE 06Z 18-FEB  -4.3    -5.4    1005      84      80    0.04     533     529    

 

Do you have MKE's text?  I'm surprised at how safe from mixing Madison looks to be.

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In my personal opinion keep it north where the warmer air won't reach as far next week. On another note it will be interesting to track.

 

12z GFS is a world of difference. Keeps the low up near Lake Superior/boundary waters area.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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GFS always playing catch up in the medium range, then finally latches on 48 hours or so out.  It's amazing how bad that model can be with feedback issue only a few days away.  NAM would be nice for a majority of us and spreads the wealth a bit.  I'd rather have snow then sleet/freezing rain/rain any day.

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This morning's run of the NAM (computer forecast model) is alarming for Monday. On top of the 1" or so of snow likely to fall tomorrow, the NAM delivers a much colder solution for Monday including several inches of snow, as indicated by this map. At this point, I am sticking with my earlier prediction of a mix to rain, along with concerns for icing due to very cold ground regardless of how warm Monday gets. However, should further guidance come in with this colder solution for Monday, we may have to gird ourselves for a rockier road to the warmup than currently expected.

.........



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GB going with 3-5 but mentions heavier totals if stronger solutions verify

 

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST
OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR OF THE PACIFIC
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THETAE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW. LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE INITIALLY FIGHTING OFF THE PRECIP...BUT THINK
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT AS CONFIDENT ACROSS THE EAST...AND HOPE TO HAVE
THIS IRONED OUT AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE
STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. GOOD QG FORCING AND MID-LEVEL
FGEN COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 0.5 INCHES SHOULD LEAD TO A SOLID
BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
INHERITED FORECAST SHOWS 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW...AND THIS LOOKS ABOUT
RIGHT FOR NOW. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS AND BLOWING
AND DRIFTING IF THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS WORK OUT.

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MKE going with 3-5 but mentions heavier amounts if stronger solutions occur. Also mentions lesser amounts if the GFS is correct. 

 

FOR SUN NT...AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SET TO TRACK FROM
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH THAT IS ALREADY PRESENT.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM MO TO NRN IN WITH THE
STENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM CENTRAL IL TO NEAR
LAKE ERIE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PHASED WITH ANOTHER MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND NRN GRTLKS DURING THIS PERIOD.
IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION INCLUDING AT THE JET LEVEL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REGION WHILE THE MOST FOCUSED FRONTOGENESIS AND HIGHER
QPF REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF WI. MOSTLY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED WITH A
CHANCE OF SLEET IN FAR SRN WI. GENERAL SNOW ACCUMS AT THIS TIME
RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES. IF GREATER DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW CAN
OCCUR...THEN HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. CONVERSELY...IF THE
GFS IS MORE CORRECT ON KEEPING THE SHORTWAVE MORE NWD AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...THEN LESS SNOW WOULD OCCUR.

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I'm thinking snow to freezing rain/sleet then rain with Monday's system as WAA powers its way in. 2-3" snow max here.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Recent model runs showing better phasing with this system and a track farther south.  This could also become an overachiever for N IL/N IN/S MI.  I'd like to see what tomorrow's runs show before jumping in on snow totals.  There is a good chance this could become all snow instead of mixing as SLP deepens.

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This is definitely going to be a interesting storm to track. Should be a heavy axis of snow somewhere. My guess is from the northern burbs of Illinois up to Green Bay will be in the heaviest axis of snow. There will likely be some serious icing issues with this system further to the west. There should be enough cold air where all of us will see at least mixed precipitation.

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