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2-17 Lower Lakes Winter Storm


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MKE is usually bullish, don't get why they aren't this time around unless they really believe the GFS.

 

UKMET/NAM/SREF/GGEM/ECMWF all would have at least 5+ if not more in their area. 

 

Ya, they are playing it very conservative. Maybe they don't want to appear to jump the gun. They're wording suggests that no way this can go to Winter Storm Warning criteria...we'll see.

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Yeah, usually they would be putting up a WSW calling for 6+. 

 

GFS has been trending wetter each run, the globals are showing a stronger, slower system. There's no reason to be saying 3-5 is the highest this thing can produce with the latest trends over the past day. If they would have said 3-5, with potentially higher amounts if the slower/stronger solution happens, I can see that, but to say 3-5 is the max even if it gets stronger is stupid and a set up for failure by them. 

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Noticed in about the last month that MKE's discussions overall have gone way down hill not sure if it's because they blew a couple of forecasts or what, but most of the time now they aren't worth the read

 

I think ever since those failed Lake Effect Snow Warning calls earlier, they have been way careful.

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MKE is usually bullish, don't get why they aren't this time around unless they really believe the GFS.

 

UKMET/NAM/SREF/GGEM/ECMWF all would have at least 5+ if not more in their area. 

 

I don't think they believe the GFS, I think they just don't want to get too bullish since seasonal trends have been nickel and diming for the most part.

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Man Geo's, I have never heard you been so down and out about a snowstorm.  What's going on with that?  Sounds like your sick of snow already.

 

Well, I work 22 miles away from home for one. I have some plans afterwards in Milwaukee. Not sure if they'll happen though. It can snow, but I hope the intense stuff is over by about 4pm.

I've had too many close calls with stupid drivers I guess in the last month. My all wheel drive has really "helped" this winter.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Ah gotcha...there are still some drivers that can't seem to handle driving in the snow.  It is aggravating I must say.  I don't mind driving in the snow at all...I actually enjoy it and make the best of it.  Monday is President's Day so hopefully the roads will be less crowded due to it being a national holiday and I'm sure lots of folks are off of work.

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It's just difficult for some to drive in snow, and it's not necessarily all their fault. I went out tonight, and we only got a little over an inch today, and I was going literally 5 mph going into the turning lane and there was a car in front of me. When I went for a complete stop a good 20 or so behind the car, my car just kept on sliding. Came a couple inches from hitting the back. I took my mom's SVU because I have a little cavalier. Don't know why the roads were so bad; it was only a inch. But it can be tricky to drive in all snow, unless you have 4x4, which helps so much it's unbeliaveble.

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Ah gotcha...there are still some drivers that can't seem to handle driving in the snow.  It is aggravating I must say.  I don't mind driving in the snow at all...I actually enjoy it and make the best of it.  Monday is President's Day so hopefully the roads will be less crowded due to it being a national holiday and I'm sure lots of folks are off of work.

 

That's what I'm hoping for. 

Actually looking forward to seeing a snowstorm from where I work. Every storm has been on the weekend or at night or during the time off on Christmas. lol. (just started in November)

Only had short bursts of snow and light snow during work hours. 

As of now I'll got with 4" for Monday. I hope it's wet enough to cling to the trees.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Well, I work 22 miles away from home for one. I have some plans afterwards in Milwaukee. Not sure if they'll happen though. It can snow, but I hope the intense stuff is over by about 4pm.

I've had too many close calls with stupid drivers I guess in the last month. My all wheel drive has really "helped" this winter.

 

I work 83 miles away from home through the middle of the SWMI snowbelt. Man-up! (or call me crazy - your choice) :P :lol:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Im forecast to receive near 6inches from this storm, IF NOT MORE.  :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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A general 3-6" is an added bonus in my book since a couple days ago N IL was being forecasted to be a mix/rain situation.  I'll take whatever snow falls as a Gift from Mother Nature.  We are probably going to melt around 6" or so this week anyway so this snow event should help maintain a deep enough snow cover and hopefully add more this weekend as has been the case this winter...when it warms, snow and cold follows.

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