October 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

It appears that most of this Sub has welcomed Autumn in a timely manner this year and I believe the Autumnal "Look and Feel" will continue as we open up OCT.  Who's ready to see the new LRC set up??  Personally, this is one of the more exciting months to look forward to as the Northern Hemisphere goes through significant seasonal changes that effect the fluid nature of the wx pattern across the Globe into North America.  Let's discuss...

I'm tracking a significant Cold Front to sweep across the Upper MW towards the GL's/MW region around the 6th/7th period...does it spin up a storm?  Let's see if the models can pick up on a disturbance that can ride up this boundary.  

Everything about this N.A. 500mb is suggesting some rather fascinating clues where the Long Term Long Range pattern may be shaping up...

 

IMHO, the biggest clue is the massive NE PAC Ridge and the placement of the Trough just N of Hawaii....then what happens is that trough "hands off" a storm into California.  That's a real big deal to have this happen very early on in the season as the jet begins to strengthen.  

Second, the development of the North American Vortex where it has been spinning over and over again since last year's pattern throughout the entire Summer up near Baffin Bay/Hudson Bay/Archipelago.  This, IMO, is a tell tale sign of a climatic change in the weather pattern up that way.  Why so?  It's been a common theme every single year over the past 4 or 5 that I can remember.  Anyway, it's a good sign for the build up of early season cold in Canada next month.

This is the month where many will see the Seasons "Firsts"...First Frost, First Freeze, First Snow Flakes....First 1" of Snow???  Now, let's see what the models have to say...

 

The JMA weeklies are suggesting the development of what looks to be a PAC jet slamming into Cali Week 2....

Precip/Temp...the AN precip pattern or ribbon of moisture across the entire C PAC suggests and active STJ....

 

Looks warm over the central CONUS...we'll see if that holds...

 

 

Week 3-4 look interesting as the model then reverses the flow over N. A. as a ridge develops on the west coast of USA and Trough-like pattern for the eastern CONUS.

 

Precip/Temp...more Tropical Trouble for Florida???  No bueno.

 

 

Seasonal temps from the Intermountain West and points East across the Nation with possible bias to warmth across the S Plains.

 

 

 

The MJO will likely head into Phase 7 by mid month as it comes out of Phase 5/6 early in the month...here is Phase 7 temp anomaly for OCT...needless to say, there are plenty of fascinating LR signals that I'm seeing for this month that will keep things active and exciting across our Sub.  

 

 

[Clinton]

13 hours ago, Tom said:

It appears that most of this Sub has welcomed Autumn in a timely manner this year and I believe the Autumnal "Look and Feel" will continue as we open up OCT.  Who's ready to see the new LRC set up??  Personally, this is one of the more exciting months to look forward to as the Northern Hemisphere goes through significant seasonal changes that effect the fluid nature of the wx pattern across the Globe into North America.  Let's discuss...

I'm tracking a significant Cold Front to sweep across the Upper MW towards the GL's/MW region around the 6th/7th period...does it spin up a storm?  Let's see if the models can pick up on a disturbance that can ride up this boundary.  

Everything about this N.A. 500mb is suggesting some rather fascinating clues where the Long Term Long Range pattern may be shaping up...

 

IMHO, the biggest clue is the massive NE PAC Ridge and the placement of the Trough just N of Hawaii....then what happens is that trough "hands off" a storm into California.  That's a real big deal to have this happen very early on in the season as the jet begins to strengthen.  

Second, the development of the North American Vortex where it has been spinning over and over again since last year's pattern throughout the entire Summer up near Baffin Bay/Hudson Bay/Archipelago.  This, IMO, is a tell tale sign of a climatic change in the weather pattern up that way.  Why so?  It's been a common theme every single year over the past 4 or 5 that I can remember.  Anyway, it's a good sign for the build up of early season cold in Canada next month.

This is the month where many will see the Seasons "Firsts"...First Frost, First Freeze, First Snow Flakes....First 1" of Snow???  Now, let's see what the models have to say...

 

The JMA weeklies are suggesting the development of what looks to be a PAC jet slamming into Cali Week 2....

Precip/Temp...the AN precip pattern or ribbon of moisture across the entire C PAC suggests and active STJ....

 

Looks warm over the central CONUS...we'll see if that holds...

 

 

Week 3-4 look interesting as the model then reverses the flow over N. A. as a ridge develops on the west coast of USA and Trough-like pattern for the eastern CONUS.

 

Precip/Temp...more Tropical Trouble for Florida???  No bueno.

 

 

Seasonal temps from the Intermountain West and points East across the Nation with possible bias to warmth across the S Plains.

 

 

 

The MJO will likely head into Phase 7 by mid month as it comes out of Phase 5/6 early in the month...here is Phase 7 temp anomaly for OCT...needless to say, there are plenty of fascinating LR signals that I'm seeing for this month that will keep things active and exciting across our Sub.  

 

 

My favorite month of the year.  Models often struggle in October past 5 or 6 days so I'm hopeful we see wet storm pop up soon.  That trough digging down out of Canada the models keep showing is nice to see.  Bring on the cold!

[Tom]

8 hours ago, Clinton said:

My favorite month of the year.  Models often struggle in October past 5 or 6 days so I'm hopeful we see wet storm pop up soon.  That trough digging down out of Canada the models keep showing is nice to see.  Bring on the cold!

Boom!  Last night's runs are now seeing the full picture and I couldn't be more pleased with the outcome bc it will confirm that we are entering an entirely different pattern this month. I'm getting pretty excited at what I'm seeing.  The key elements that are coming together for an interesting ride the next several weeks should keep this Sub active, esp when the first signs of snow are in the picture....and wouldn't ya know it, the U.P. may see some flakes flying with the Sub's first early season cold shot right around when Day 1 starts of the 2022-23 LRC pattern.

 

 

Last night's 0z Euro showing a rather potent shot of cold air that will penetrate down south...

 

 

What is very intriguing about this year's pattern compared to the past several years is that the models are suggesting lower heights to develop in the S Plains/GOM.  Notice the Sub Tropical connection all the way from the Baja of Mexico, up into TX and along the EC.  This was non-existent the past several years.  I bet you any money that Gary Lezak will point this out as we get deeper into OCT.  This is a very important clue that we will prob see a solid STJ this coming Autumn and forthcoming cold season.  #SplitFlow  #STJ

 

Here comes the precip chances and the moisture cometh up from the Tropics into the Rockies...Just beautiful....Let It Snow!

@CentralNebWeather @Madtown...First Flakes???

 

 

[Madtown]

First S in the forecast.

[Tom]

Euro Weeklies next 30 days...Build The North American Glacier 

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Boom!  Last night's runs are now seeing the full picture and I couldn't be more pleased with the outcome bc it will confirm that we are entering an entirely different pattern this month. I'm getting pretty excited at what I'm seeing.  The key elements that are coming together for an interesting ride the next several weeks should keep this Sub active, esp when the first signs of snow are in the picture....and wouldn't ya know it, the U.P. may see some flakes flying with the Sub's first early season cold shot right around when Day 1 starts of the 2022-23 LRC pattern.

 

 

Last night's 0z Euro showing a rather potent shot of cold air that will penetrate down south...

 

 

What is very intriguing about this year's pattern compared to the past several years is that the models are suggesting lower heights to develop in the S Plains/GOM.  Notice the Sub Tropical connection all the way from the Baja of Mexico, up into TX and along the EC.  This was non-existent the past several years.  I bet you any money that Gary Lezak will point this out as we get deeper into OCT.  This is a very important clue that we will prob see a solid STJ this coming Autumn and forthcoming cold season.  #SplitFlow  #STJ

 

Here comes the precip chances and the moisture cometh up from the Tropics into the Rockies...Just beautiful....Let It Snow!

@CentralNebWeather @Madtown...First Flakes???

 

 

It's good to see the moisture showing up on the Euro.  I'm ready to see what the new pattern can deliver!

[Grizzcoat]

I will be in the Arrowhead of MN and on Superior this coming Monday through Thursday AM. Snow chances are in the forecast for WED PM/ Thurs AM! with the cool down posted by Tom. If the snow flies, I will post pics.

[hawkstwelve]

New 45-day EPS had a nice bump in number of members seeing snow compared to previous run. 66% of members now show snow falling at FSD at some point in the next 45 days. Getting closer folks!

[hawkstwelve]

Here's the 500mb map for the first full week of November. It's seeing a good deal of high latitude blocking which generally leads to good winter weather potential across the CONUS. Early start to winter this year?

[Tom]

Welcome to October!  Boy, you guys in the MW/GL's region are looking at enjoying some bonafide warmer & sunny days before the next powerful CF hits later next week.  These are the quintessential Autumn days that @bud2380reflects about.  Enjoy the next few days!

Now, remember that COPC 8-14 day a few days ago?  That reversed course...still looking for that sustained period of Indian Summer to those who experienced their 1st Frost/Freezes?  Might have to wait a bit longer...

 

Love the wet look for the SW and CO Rockies....Let it Snow...nice way to kick start the Snow Season...more to come...

 

The attn now turns for our members out west to see their 1st Frost/Freezes of the season.  It is looking highly likely that an impressive early shot of colder weather is targeting a majority of the Sub next Thu through the following weekend.  It's pretty neat to see this pattern evolve across N. A. as the 500mb amplifies.  An entirely new pattern is shaping up and I can see this setting up Long Term Long Wave Troughs/Ridges in the "key" locations to deliver some potent colder weather in the weeks & months ahead.

Check this out...I'll slow this down for all to see.  The 0z Euro Op run from last night just did something that is pretty wild.  Did it just unleash energy off the PV from the North Pole???  Look at the small trough that tracks down from the Archipelago region on the backside of the developing Hudson Bay vortex.  They both phase together and crash down over the GL's region into SE Canada.  Then, another trough rides down from the Arctic in N/S fashion for Round 2 around the 7th/8th????  Man, what a way to kick start the new LRC pattern and wipe away the old pattern.

 

 

 

[Tom]

CPC updated it's OCT outlook...big change from the previous Mid SEP run showing AN temps nation wide.  Now it looks like they are suggesting more of a nation divided...East cool and west warm??  AN precip signal for the central Rockies and SW...Like I said before, from my experience of living here in the SW, something is changing and in a positive way.  Have no Fear....Nature is Here...

 

 

[Clinton]

27 minutes ago, Tom said:

CPC updated it's OCT outlook...big change from the previous Mid SEP run showing AN temps nation wide.  Now it looks like they are suggesting more of a nation divided...East cool and west warm??  AN precip signal for the central Rockies and SW...Like I said before, from my experience of living here in the SW, something is changing and in a positive way.  Have no Fear....Nature is Here...

 

 

CPCs outlook still looks to warm imo, especially for those up north and around the lakes.  ICON model showing a hard freeze all the way down into C. Iowa on the 8th.  Unfortunately it looks like it will be mid month before most of us have any significant chance of precipitation but I agree with you that the back half of the month could be very active.  Phase 7 MJO maybe.

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

CPCs outlook still looks to warm imo, especially for those up north and around the lakes.  ICON model showing a hard freeze all the way down into C. Iowa on the 8th.  Unfortunately it looks like it will be mid month before most of us have any significant chance of precipitation but I agree with you that the back half of the month could be very active.  Phase 7 MJO maybe.

Totally agree its running to warm up north and into the MW from what I'm seeing.  The members farther west and south will be in the more volatile areas where I see big temp contrasts once we get past the middle of the month.  That CF coming down next week means business.  The Euro got even colder out west into the Plains.

[OKwx2k4]

How do you make us all happy together for fall?

Everyone said...."Aaaahhh!"

This is pretty. 10/10 in fact. 

 

[NWbyNW]

Hello everyone! I have never posted in this thread series you all are a part of!  I just had a quick question.

Is this topic specifically for the midwest or it is a community of everyone from the Rockies east to the Atlantic?   

Hope you all have a good day! 

[OKwx2k4]

35 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Hello everyone! I have never posted in this thread series you all are a part of!  I just had a quick question.

Is this topic specifically for the midwest or it is a community of everyone from the Rockies east to the Atlantic?   

Hope you all have a good day! 

Welcome! Its eastern US pretty much. Core is in the midwest, but we are spread out pretty well, too. 

As you can tell, I'm an okie.

[NWbyNW]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Welcome! Its eastern US pretty much. Core is in the midwest, but we are spread out pretty well, too. 

As you can tell, I'm an okie.

Much appreciated!  Thank you for the warm welcome!  

I haven't been in this section of the forum as much and I was sort of surprised to not see sections more broken up by region (NE, SE, midwest, etc).  I probably won't have much to add, but I will be here because I would like to learn more about weather patterns out east!  Look forward to hanging out!

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, NWbyNW said:

Much appreciated!  Thank you for the warm welcome!  

I haven't been in this section of the forum as much and I was sort of surprised to not see sections more broken up by region (NE, SE, midwest, etc).  I probably won't have much to add, but I will be here because I would like to learn more about weather patterns out east!  Look forward to hanging out!

No problem. More the merrier. I'm a southerly displaced 'winterlover, so I'm around a lot when interesting cold patterns or snow is expected. That said, been a rough couple years for me. Well more like 7. Lol. 

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

No problem. More the merrier. I'm a southerly displaced 'winterlover, so I'm around a lot when interesting cold patterns or snow is expected. That said, been a rough couple years for me. Well more like 7. Lol. 

How'd you do in Feb 2021?

[OmahaSnowFan]

[james1976]

Enjoyable early fall day up at the MN home. Mostly cloudy and only made it to 65. Occasional light showers but only .05". Leaves are quite colorful now.

[jaster220]

3 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Enjoyable early fall day up at the MN home. Mostly cloudy and only made it to 65. Occasional light showers but only .05". Leaves are quite colorful now.

72F & sunny with a comfortable north breeze here in Motown. Absolutely postcard wx complete with a beautiful sunset.

[OmahaSnowFan]

The 240 hour 12Z Euro shows above normal temps through Thursday, below normal for a couple of days, and then right back to 10-20 degrees above normal here to end the run.

 

[james1976]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

The 240 hour 12Z Euro shows above normal temps through Thursday, below normal for a couple of days, and then right back to 10-20 degrees above normal here to end the run.

 

Hopefully that doesn't pan out. Can we have a classic fall for once?

[Iceresistance]

16 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

How do you make us all happy together for fall?

Everyone said...."Aaaahhh!"

This is pretty. 10/10 in fact. 

 

BRING IT ON OCTOBER!

[Tom]

7 hours ago, james1976 said:

Hopefully that doesn't pan out. Can we have a classic fall for once?

Not likely to see the warmth surge east for any extended period...IMO, the GL's/MW are going to be stuck in a typical Fall-like pattern through at least the middle part of OCT.  Meanwhile, the western/southern Sub experiences the typical Yo-Yo temp fluctuations as the seasons battle it out in the highly amplified N.A. pattern.

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a great start to October with the official H/L at Grand Rapids of 70/42. There was no rain fall and 100% of possible sunshine was reported. The overnight low and current temperature here at my house was/is 51. For today the average H/L has now dropped down to 67/47 the record high of 87 was set in 1971 and the record low of 27 was set in 1974. I would like to add for the month of September Grand Rapids had 51% of possible sunshine and there were a total of 4 thunderstorms. The mean was just about average at 63.7 the highest reading was 85 on the 3rd and the lowest reading was 38 on the 23rd total rain fall was 1.30" over all a very pleasant start to the fall season.

 

[Tom]

Signs of Autumn of slowly appearing in the Valley of the Sun...BN temps in the extended...the temps up in the mountains of Flagstaff and at the Grand Canyon have been dipping into the 30's. Thankfully, no more 100's in the forecast for PHX in the extended.

 My local 10-day...Sun, Sun, Sun....love the morning sun rises...

[Clinton]

Who in the Central Plains is ready for this dryness to end, I know I am.  Signs are showing up for a wet 2nd half of the month.  GFS and Euro Control are showing a wet storm moving through in the long range and I know it's the long range.  This could be the first major storm of the new LRC pattern and I'm ready for anything different than what we've had!

0z Euro Control precip forecast

6z GFS

[hawkstwelve]

This looks like it could lead to some chilly weather. Extrapolate!

[Clinton]

24 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

This looks like it could lead to some chilly weather. Extrapolate!

Also as Tom pointed out the other day the MJO could be in phase 7 later in the month.

[Iceresistance]

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Also as Tom pointed out the other day the MJO could be in phase 7 later in the month.

It's currently trying to jump into Phase 4

[Iceresistance]

21 days (3 weeks) since 1/10th of an inch of rain

30 days (4 weeks and 2 days) since .25 inches of rain

[james1976]

Looks like a hard freeze for many of us by the end of the week. Bring it!

[OmahaSnowFan]

[OmahaSnowFan]

Some Sioux Falls CWA stats.

[OmahaSnowFan]

I went back and looked at my backyard stats for the summer.

Ended up with 50 days at or above 90 degrees. This included 3 days above 100 degrees. Normal is 34 days.

[Mr Marine Layer]

[Andie]

2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I went back and looked at my backyard stats for the summer.

Ended up with 50 days at or above 90 degrees. This included 3 days above 100 degrees. Normal is 34 days.

Exactly, an extraordinary summer for most of us all the way to the Gulf. 
I’m ready for the chill in the air. 

[Niko]

In NYC for a few days. I arrived Saturday evening and the weather is certainly chilly and wet ever since. Remnants of hurricane Ian still sticking around.. Temps are in the 50s during the day and 40s at nite. Very gloomy. It gets better by midweek or so.

BTW: My first Frost Advisory for back home in Macomb County for Tanite. Temps dipping into the 30's.

 

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Here's my September stats from my backyard.

Avg low: 57.1/+1.0 (coldest: 41.4- 28th)

Avg high: 81.7/+2.6 (hottest: 100.4- 20th)

Avg temp: +1.8

Precip: 1.52"/ -1.44" (-6.63" for the year)

5th consecutive month of above average temps this year.

7/9 months with above average highs for the month.

Record high on the 20th of 100.4.

25/30 days with above average highs.

Only 4 days with measurable precip.

4th consecutive month below average monthly precip this year.

7/9 months below average monthly precip this year.

 

[westMJim]

Yesterday was yet another great early October day with a reported 94% of possible sunshine at Grand Rapids the official H/L at GRR was 65/42 and there was no rain fall. The overnight low here in MBY so far has been 35 and there is a lot of frost on the top of the cars and roofs here. The official low so far at GRR looks to be 36. For today the average H/L is 67/42 the record high of 85 was a three peat in 1900, 1919 and 1974. The record low of a chilly 23 was in 1974. The 1^st part of this week looks to be sunny and warm then turning colder on Thursday and Friday.

 

[Tom]

Happy Monday!  Many of you will experience an end to the growing season later this week.  How has the harvest been?  I heard the corn crop hasn't been so good up in IA/NE.  Is that true?  I'm sure a lot of gardeners and farmers will be in a frenzy this week.

 

[westMJim]

8 hours ago, Niko said:

My first Frost Advisory for back home in Macomb County for Tanite. Temps dipping into the 30's.

I don't know about your back yard but here in MBY the low reached 35 and there is a lot of frost on the roofs and tops of cars. Not so much on the grass areas.

[westMJim]

In looking back at the past warm season here is the total of days with high temperatures of 90 or better. At Grand Rapids 7, Muskegon and Holland 6, Lansing 17. To the east Detroit 15, Flint 10 and Saginaw 6. For some reason Lansing seems to have been warmer that surrounding areas.

 

[Tom]

The Flow over the mid-lat's of our Nation is about to go through a Massive change this week as we will likely see Day 1 of the new LRC pattern.  This new pattern will be felt by literally all of us as a powerful Cold Front ushers in the seasons coldest airmass thus far.  Some may see flakes flying up north across the Yoopers!  I'm seeing a clear signal that a Long Term Long Wave Trough is developing across the eastern CONUS over the next 2 weeks.  Meanwhile, a W NAMER Ridge is anchoring itself over W Canada creating a NW Flow aloft that will usher in re-surging rounds of colder weather.  

Alright, Alright, Alright...let me dive right in....I've learned over the years from listening to Gary Lezak that we usually see the "old" pattern blend with the "new" during the 1st week of OCT.  I believe we are seeing this play out right now before our eyes with the trough centered over the N Rockies that's "cut-off" from the main flow aloft since it entered the PAC NW on 9/29.  Check out how this slow moving energy just sits and spins waiting for the CF to pick it up on the likelihood of Day 1 of the new LRC pattern.  

 

Last night's 0z EPS 500mb...I'm tracking a potential Autumn storm 10/11-10/14 to track into the N Rockies and usher in the first Significant Snows of the season.  Winter will arrive into the lower 48 for those folks.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Happy Monday!  Many of you will experience an end to the growing season later this week.  How has the harvest been?  I heard the corn crop hasn't been so good up in IA/NE.  Is that true?  I'm sure a lot of gardeners and farmers will be in a frenzy this week.

 

I would say harvest is over half done in my area.  Haven't heard about yields yet.  My guess is that it won't be the bumper crop of previous years.

[Tom]

You know when the models are struggling when you see these corrections in the EPO from the EPS...

 

 

[Tom]

It's getting to be that time of year when changes begin to occur up in the Stratosphere.  By Day 7, the Euro has been lock steady that a warming event will occur in the Arctic regions that will dislodge some early season cold off the snow pack that has already begun to take shape over the Archipelago/Arctic.

 

 

Current Snow Cover...

 

 

0z Euro 10-day North American snow forecast....Laying down the White Gold...

[snowstorm83]

Looking forward to highs in the 50s and potentially the first frost. Unfortunately still looking very dry for the foreseeable future.