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October 2022 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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3 hours ago, Jayhawker85 said:

So far this pattern looks dry for the central Midwest and points west. Pacific ridging and NW flow is never good for us and just being cold fronts and dryness. We shall see how this pattern evolves over the next couple weeks 

Remember every pending winter on here is going to be epic.😉

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But never give up hope, we have a HUGE pattern break coming! I'm expecting just teaser showers for the next several days, but it would moisten up the atmosphere for storms next week!

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

My Yearly deficit is 13-15 inches of rain.

I had 14 inch deficit  early Aug. Another 1.5 inch behind for August.  But 5.60 in sept now another 17 days dry as a bone. So would estimate  my def to be 14 to 15.5 inches for 2022. My area only really had 2 wet periods  since late may!!  First 5 days of July and  5 inches in 8 days in mid September.  About 135 days of sun sun sun and a few sprinkles  or showers.

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The weather has been pretty nice, but gosh dang I'm sick of the endless bone dry pattern.  The latest GFS and Euro show little, if any, rain over the next 1-2 weeks.  It's always the same.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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24 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

It is just crazy to me that I now live somewhere where 80% of LR EPS members can show snow falling by mid-November. Mid-November. We normally have to wait till February (our new holy grail month) to see numbers like that in the PNW. 

It's still sinking in that I don't ever have to worry about only having fleeting chances of snow for an entire winter season. Don't have to worry about getting unexpected onshore flow from the giant 50° body of water nextdoor and having it kill our chances. No worrying about whether the sloppy couple inches you just got was gonna be it for that season. No more elaborate snow dances to try and get the rain to changeover - well, actually, my kids like doing the snow dances so that one might stay around anyways. 🙂

Sorry for the rant. It's just really refreshing to live in a place that sees snow, substantial snow, every year. So much more enjoyable.

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So you enjoy the climate up there in Sioux Falls? I’m looking for places to move within the next year or two, hopefully somewhere in the Midwest.

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At 6:45 AM, 39 degrees, feels like 36, with moderate rain falling.  My goodness what a change.  Looks like close to 0.20" so far as the rain moves NW to SE over a fairly narrow area again, same set up as Tuesday morning when I ended with 0.51".  Rain to continue until about lunch time with a good half inch or a little more predicted.  Skies clear this afternoon leading to frost and freeze conditions overnight.  HS football tonight should be nice and crisp.  I am the HS football team statistician, so I get to sit in our nice climate controlled press box.  Last home game was 3 weeks ago and the A/C was on. I'm sure tonight they may turn on the heat. 

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

The October chill looks to continue for many members and I'm seeing a significant shot of colder air mid month.  Possible Cross Polar Flow?  Wild pattern shaping up for the Week 1-2 period.

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Wild and dry..  same thing for months  after months.    Troughs east  and ridges west. Temp Fluctuations   here. And tons of east winds. More than ive ever seen. Unlike much  of eastern usa  east winds do not alway mean precip.  This reoccurring  pattern  of west trough and huge east troughs  is a boring a weather as ive seen my entire  life.

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We are now one week into October 2022. For the first 6 days of the month the mean at Grand Rapids is 55.1. That is a departure of -1.2 so far the average high has been 70.0 the average high at this point should be 66.4. The average low so far is 40.2 that below the average that is 46.3. So we have had warm days and cool nights so far. The official H/L  yesterday was 71/44 there was a trace of rain fall reported and 15% possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY was 38 and that is the current temperature. I recorded 0.04” of rain fall yesterday. For today the average H/L is 65/45 the record high of 87 was recorded in 2007 and the record low of 25 was set in 1964. Last year the H/L was 68/62 and there was 0.12” of rain fall.

 

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7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I have a frost advisory tonight and a freeze advisory not far away

There is a frost advisory for west Michigan, but the wind and clouds could keep temperatures will above the level that is needed for a frost and it should keep this area above 32 for sure.

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6 minutes ago, westMJim said:

There is a frost advisory for west Michigan, but the wind and clouds could keep temperatures will above the level that is needed for a frost and it should keep this area above 32 for sure.

Around here I'm interested to see if there is enough moisture to have frost.  We were bumped up to extreme drought yesterday, the drought has escalated quickly.

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Warmest day for the next week on tap for today. With above average temps in the low 70's today. A cold front will cross the county late tonight with a slight chance of a brief shower. Following the front winds will shift to the northwest and be a bit gusty tomorrow. Temps by Saturday morning will fall into the low 40's - highs tomorrow will struggle to pass the mid-50's despite a sunny day. By the way - Go Phillies!!!!
The record high for today is 90 degrees set in 1941 that is the 2nd latest 90 degree reading in Chester County history. The latest 90 plus day was on October 16, 1897 when it hit 94 degrees! The record low for today is 27 degrees set in 1923. The daily rainfall record is 1.48" set back in 1965.
image.png.e6d254070beabcc00393a0160e82767e.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Coldest air of the season tanite in Macomb, MI as temps fall into the 20's. Highs remaining only in the 40s today.

 

Meanwhile, here in NYC today the weather is absolutely gorgeous. Temps in the 70s, but much cooler tanite as temps drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s. (especially in northern Queens where I am). Highs tomorrow in the 50s. 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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A freeze warning has been issued for much of the region tonight.  We are expecting low 30s, so it's not a hard freeze.  I have to decide how many plants I want to bother covering.  I try to keep them going while hummingbirds are still here.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This isn't the start I had hoped for with the new LRC setting up.  The ugly ridge in the Pacific NW looks to hang around for awhile, hopefully it will break down in time.  The shots of cold air are encouraging but dryness looks to prevail for the next few weeks.  Still lots of pattern left to evolve so not all is lost yet.

Here is a look at the 15 day QPF anomaly for the EPS and GEFS.

1666396800-6o3kj4k8Omk.png

1666504800-FlOwiuJCmA4.png

 

 

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2 hours ago, chescowxman said:
Warmest day for the next week on tap for today. With above average temps in the low 70's today. A cold front will cross the county late tonight with a slight chance of a brief shower. Following the front winds will shift to the northwest and be a bit gusty tomorrow. Temps by Saturday morning will fall into the low 40's - highs tomorrow will struggle to pass the mid-50's despite a sunny day. By the way - Go Phillies!!!!
The record high for today is 90 degrees set in 1941 that is the 2nd latest 90 degree reading in Chester County history. The latest 90 plus day was on October 16, 1897 when it hit 94 degrees! The record low for today is 27 degrees set in 1923. The daily rainfall record is 1.48" set back in 1965.
image.png.e6d254070beabcc00393a0160e82767e.png

PA has some good teams in the sports arena...Phillies and the Eagles are looking good.  Aren't the Eagles undefeated?  It'll be a chilly day for a Wild Card game today in St. Louis.

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16 minutes ago, Tom said:

Been a long time coming...I'm sure your ready!  

Can't wait and I will likely have to turn on the heat for the first time tomorrow morning.   12z GFS brings a little moisture to parts of MO and Iowa next Tuesday night and another shot of cold.

image.thumb.png.3a6e58ff48a59d6aef82647a97eb1b68.png

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This morning's GFS and Euro are showing a potential wet front and big storm up along the Canada border.  The Euro has a big snow event, with a snow mix down into northern Iowa.  The Euro is slower with the front, so it's much wetter here.  I sure hope it's correct.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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17 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The weather has been pretty nice, but gosh dang I'm sick of the endless bone dry pattern.  The latest GFS and Euro show little, if any, rain over the next 1-2 weeks.  It's always the same.

Sadly, I see no reason to believe the winter will be different.  

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My first freeze warning of the season. Temps will bottom out in the upper 20s.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It appears that today will mark the 1st day of an official Freeze for many across our Sub and the opening days of the new LRC pattern.  Back home, many local stations are reporting temps in the low/mid 30's and outside the urban heat island plenty of upper 20's.  Kinda wish I was back home for this but there will be more of these temps to come later the following weekend and extended.

Screen Shot 2022-10-08 at 2.16.39 AM.png

 

A couple days ago, I experienced a cell that erupted right near my place and dumped a quick .43" of precip and also some gusty winds.  It was nice to hear rumbles of thunder and the smells of the rains that fell.  The cut-off trough in the SW is a big deal as the weather pattern develops in the early stages of the LRC.  The valley will prob see more storms later this afternoon/evening.  Temps locally peaked in the upper 80's and I can tell you that the air has a different feel to it now that we have turned the corner here in the Valley of the Sun.  The mornings especially are a lot cooler and comfy. While the afternoons are still a bit Hot near 90F, it is much more tolerable and by the time we get close to sunset it is perfection.

 

 

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@OttumwaSnomow @Clinton ..The 1st wave will eject out of the SW and deliver some moisture next week as an interesting system blows up over the GL's next weekend.

0z EPS indicating a good opportunity for moisture in this Split Flow pattern aloft for the MW/GL's/S Plains region...

 

image.gif

 

The pattern next weekend could be downright cold over much of the Upper MW/GL's/MW and will continue into the following week before I see this colder pattern breaking down.  By that time, I think some of you will be yearning for some delightful Indian Summer weather and there are signs that post 20th it will be making an appearance for those out west first.  That will also introduce opportunities for more moisture over the heartland during the later half of OCT.

 

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With an official high of 50 yesterday was the coolest high since April 27th the low yesterday was 36. There was no rain fall and a reported 15% of possible sunshine. There has only been officially a trace of rain fall so far this month. As expected, the winds shifted to out of the west and that brought in some clouds and warmer temperatures off the lake. Thus the overnight low here in MBY stopped at 32 and it looks like it did get down to at least 31 at GRR. At the current time it is cloudy and 39 here but to the west the  last reported reading was up to 49 at Muskegon.  For today the average HL is now down to 64/45 the record high of 88 was in the warm October of 2007 and the record low of 28 was set in 1896 and again in 1989.

 

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