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October 2022 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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18 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It looks like Toms call for a warm up to end the month will happen.  The MJO is moving into phase 6 and may stay there for awhile.  Phase 6 is not only warm in Oct but also dry in the central part of the country.  We have great blocking setting up and other good teleconnections but we are missing the most important ingredient to have a snowy winter and that is storms. 

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Hopefully, it may try to go further than that, what are the most favorable MJO phases for October?

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Low in the mid 50’s tonight. 

Sweet. 😃

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Weather here in S MI is about to get wacky early next week.

NOAA:

Even colder air is set to arrive early in the week Monday and
Tuesday as the next strong wave causes the centroid of the stacked
low to relocate southward from southwest Ontario to Southern Lake
Huron. Northerly flow behind this wave will be a direct feed from
northern Canada with ECMWF showing 850mb temps in the negative
teens. Currently this airmass is slated to drop into the Midwest,
slightly modifying over the western Lakes before reaching lower MI.
Still, 850mb temps around -5C will stall over the region resulting
in highs in the low 40s Monday and Tuesday. Models are actually
showing precip to be all snow in the higher terrain of the Irish
Hills Monday night. Still time to work out those details but
forecast will have snowflakes mentioned for that period.

Monday
Night

Monday Night: Rain showers likely before 11pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.

Rain/Snow
Likely

Low: 31 °F

@jaster220I think we will see our first snowflakes of the season early next week and pretty darn early this year, right?!  We could be all snow Mon-nite as temps fall below freezing.

 

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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17 hours ago, Tom said:

PHX topped out at balmy 95F yesterday and will be about the same today and tomorrow before our next system comes off the PAC ocean over the weekend.  You have no idea how much I'm enjoying this pattern evolve over here.  It's not often, esp in recent years, that storms come off the PAC this far south into the So Cal/4 Corners region.  IMHO, this is a massive clue that the new LRC is showing itself.  As I have opined, this Split Flow pattern is going to produce some interesting storm systems this Winter.

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Not sure if ya'll can read this Blog bc it is a great read and exactly what I have been thinking about over the past week or so when I saw this pattern in the modeling.

https://blog.weather.us/ever-wonder-or-hear-of-what-a-split-flow-is/

 

 

 

Snowklahoma is what that (blog post)means. Lol. 

At least the Ozarks region. Yessir. 

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Here is a link with the latest drought information for Missouri and Kansas.  Drought conditions continue to spread into the eastern part of the country as well.

https://www.weather.gov/media/eax/drought/drought.pdf

The 30 day QPF 30 day anomaly continues to look bleak on the Euro Weeklies, GEFS Extended, and CMC Extended.  Sadly this could be the biggest topic this Winter.

1668211200-YRlZLYl9hC8.png

1668211200-WowHjs7vEGY.png

1668211200-zGOZMNdMZ44.png

 

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Happy Friday!  A wonderful wx pattern is to take shape over here in AZ and @IMoveALot_Weather area in So Cal this weekend.  Rotating Ribbons of possible training storms are to take shape Sat afternoon around here thru Sun that could dump some serious rainfall for the valley.  Flood Watch hoisted for my region.  Looking forward to this system as it has characteristics of an Autumn storm system.  There could even be some mtn snows in NM!  Love it...who's says there ain't no action???  #STJ...S Plains going to get some good precip over the next few days as will the GL's region.  Sadly, the central Plains are out on the sidelines for a bit until later this month as expected.  

@james1976 Snow Showers in the air this morning???  Nice impulse rotating around this broad ULL will deliver an early Winter-Feel... @Madtown @Beltrami Island

*Interesting tidbit, the last time ORD hit Sub Freezing was on 4/17 and the forecast temp of 31F on 10/18 is nearly 6 months to the date.  

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Welcome to Friday the 14th The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 53/43 there was officially 0.19” of rain fall and there was a trace of snow fall. I would report that snow fall as small hail as that is what fell here in MBY. There was 18% of possible sunshine between showers. Here in MBY I recorded 0.66” of rain fall as of 7 AM. The overnight low here in my yard was 38 and that is the current temperature with light rain falling. For today the average H/L is 62/43 the record high of 83 was recorded in 1892, 1897 and 1975. The record snow fall is a trace on several years.  The record low of 29 was set in 1937. Last year the H/L was 72/52 and there was 0.29” of rain fall.

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Things will begin to pick up in activity post 20th as we see the 0z EPS lighting it up for the last week of the month.

image.gif

 

Is there a system during the 26th-28th period that tracks thru the Plains/MW that could produce some Flakes of Snow??

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We picked up 1.16" of rain in East Nantmeal yesterday. Beautiful weather over the weekend before a sharp cold front crosses the area on Monday. After that the chilliest weather of the fall season is on tap for Chester County. Many spots (if they have not already) will see their 1st frost and possibly the first freeze...and the end of the growing season by either Wednesday or Thursday morning.
The record high for today is 85 degrees set back in 1975. The record low is the 27 degree low from 1988. The daily rainfall record is 1.05" from 1977.
GO PHILLIES!
image.png.612d2d377cce4509bd0332710dfce323.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Happy Friday!  A wonderful wx pattern is to take shape over here in AZ and @IMoveALot_Weather area in So Cal this weekend.  Rotating Ribbons of possible training storms are to take shape Sat afternoon around here thru Sun that could dump some serious rainfall for the valley.  Flood Watch hoisted for my region.  Looking forward to this system as it has characteristics of an Autumn storm system.  There could even be some mtn snows in NM!  Love it...who's says there ain't no action???  #STJ...S Plains going to get some good precip over the next few days as will the GL's region.  Sadly, the central Plains are out on the sidelines for a bit until later this month as expected.  

@james1976 Snow Showers in the air this morning???  Nice impulse rotating around this broad ULL will deliver an early Winter-Feel... @Madtown @Beltrami Island

*Interesting tidbit, the last time ORD hit Sub Freezing was on 4/17 and the forecast temp of 31F on 10/18 is nearly 6 months to the date.  

That is one powerhouse storm rotating around the US/Canadian boarder and over the lakes.  It's going to bring down some seriously cold air for October and will produce a artic outbreak later this Winter.  Hard freeze expected here early next week, even the warm GFS is showing some serious cold.

0d40d5_b695575c38694353ab7fe42ca18cfea0~mv2.gif

0d40d5_b6e2771fa65f4bf0bfdb60ec35742794~mv2.png

0d40d5_b7b34b4862e746b3bc26d9b7df475490~mv2.png

Who's ready for wind chills in the single digits and teens?

0d40d5_84f45c3012794fa282995cf680f49ad3~mv2.png

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The GFS has been trending more organized with a system coming out of the SW along the southern jet.  It's around the day 10 range but if it verifies it would be the first organized storm to move through the central plains in October.  The Euro Control has a similar looking storm only a few days later, the moisture will be welcome the drought is intensifying in the Mid West.

 image.thumb.gif.b34d263b5a2e2c81b14e06a5d316b200.gif

0d40d5_14eb58e5bde6490babfc9e68f87bf9ca~mv2.png

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22 minutes ago, Clinton said:

That is one powerhouse storm rotating around the US/Canadian boarder and over the lakes.  It's going to bring down some seriously cold air for October and will produce a artic outbreak later this Winter.  Hard freeze expected here early next week, even the warm GFS is showing some serious cold.

0d40d5_b695575c38694353ab7fe42ca18cfea0~mv2.gif

0d40d5_b6e2771fa65f4bf0bfdb60ec35742794~mv2.png

0d40d5_b7b34b4862e746b3bc26d9b7df475490~mv2.png

Who's ready for wind chills in the single digits and teens?

0d40d5_84f45c3012794fa282995cf680f49ad3~mv2.png

Cross Polar Flow…lookout below!

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It sure feels like November outside and smells like snow. Current temp is at 39F under mostly cloudy skies.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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10 hours ago, Clinton said:

Here is a link with the latest drought information for Missouri and Kansas.  Drought conditions continue to spread into the eastern part of the country as well.

https://www.weather.gov/media/eax/drought/drought.pdf

The 30 day QPF 30 day anomaly continues to look bleak on the Euro Weeklies, GEFS Extended, and CMC Extended.  Sadly this could be the biggest topic this Winter.

1668211200-YRlZLYl9hC8.png

1668211200-WowHjs7vEGY.png

1668211200-zGOZMNdMZ44.png

 

And this is why i laughed at forecast calls about winter being so brutal and snowy. This first month of the new LRC is showing clear signs of a major drought happening in the heart of the plains where all our Ag comes from. Aka grocery prices will continue to climb next year from heat and drought 

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Happy Friday!  A wonderful wx pattern is to take shape over here in AZ and @IMoveALot_Weather area in So Cal this weekend.  Rotating Ribbons of possible training storms are to take shape Sat afternoon around here thru Sun that could dump some serious rainfall for the valley.  Flood Watch hoisted for my region.  Looking forward to this system as it has characteristics of an Autumn storm system.  There could even be some mtn snows in NM!  Love it...who's says there ain't no action???  #STJ...S Plains going to get some good precip over the next few days as will the GL's region.  Sadly, the central Plains are out on the sidelines for a bit until later this month as expected.  

@james1976 Snow Showers in the air this morning???  Nice impulse rotating around this broad ULL will deliver an early Winter-Feel... @Madtown @Beltrami Island

*Interesting tidbit, the last time ORD hit Sub Freezing was on 4/17 and the forecast temp of 31F on 10/18 is nearly 6 months to the date.  

IMG_20221014_072421327.jpg.a72ab6f7c92ace2be5cfcb57156127e8.jpg

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56 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

And this is why i laughed at forecast calls about winter being so brutal and snowy. This first month of the new LRC is showing clear signs of a major drought happening in the heart of the plains where all our Ag comes from. Aka grocery prices will continue to climb next year from heat and drought 

It's not just the heartland but the drought seems to be spreading across a good portion of the country.  Lots of time still for things to change and as always what actually happens is more important than what is forecasted to happen.  The next 4 to 5 weeks will be critical.

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17 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

I can't see the video, can you upload it to YouTube if you don't mind to?

It gave me a direct download, so I viewed it using vlc player.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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9 hours ago, Tom said:

Things will begin to pick up in activity post 20th as we see the 0z EPS lighting it up for the last week of the month.

image.gif

 

Is there a system during the 26th-28th period that tracks thru the Plains/MW that could produce some Flakes of Snow??

2.png

Well hello 12z Euro Control, look at the block on this guy.  Please let this verify!

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_norm_anom-1665748800-1666461600-1667044800-20.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1665748800-1666461600-1667044800-20.gif

 

 

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How good or bad has CPC been the last month???  the Heidke skill scores from CPC at the 8-14 range leave something to be desired.

Understanding the skill score

The Heidke Skill Score (HSS) compares how often the forecast category correctly match the observed category, over and above the number of correct "hits" expected by chance alone.

This score utilizes the number of correct and incorrect category hits. The values range from -50 to 100. A score of 100 indicates a perfect forecast and a score of -50 indicates a perfectly incorrect forecast. Scores greater than 0 indicate improvement compared to a random forecast and indicate skill. So a score below 0 indicates no skill or lack of one. Blue in the below map. OUCH!!! Can't be worse in the Deep South. I can't recall seeing an avg  so low at 1.9. Just about better flipping a 3 sided dice.

image.png.d887d01b6daf50618bf134ce312f135e.png

 

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

18z GFS has a parade of storms starting on the 25th.  We haven't been seeing these types of model runs in quite some time.  Let's break the drought!

image.thumb.png.4d218f365be49d95aa50ab7a99423e2a.png

Humm

image.thumb.png.22f6f4bf082f79018029434173d366e2.png

image.thumb.png.aad0f31bedd3c52b761630af29c2608f.png

Not going to be much problem finding cold air as we go into November...

Don't need a Russian snowcover map to spell it out. Holy moly.

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Potential record breaking cold this Tues AM here in C.IA specifically for KDSM.  AFD talking about it. No local media. Imagine that. If it was"potential"  record warmth- local CBS channel would be all over it from days on out.  But no mention last night on all 3 major networks.   Probably will not happen, but the hype and circumstance certainly is not the same compared to potential "record breaking heat" ( off which no MAX records where broke this summer, but the common person would think I'am nuts) --- the record is 22F in 1972. I get it-- I'am biased. But don't think for a second that the media isn't.  image.thumb.png.bf4a88c2734cdcd99af033059761b432.png

 

image.thumb.png.8d5bc202fa4609182e5461fda5e2112d.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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