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October 2022 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Another beauty of a day today with highs running a couple of degrees above normal. The well advertised cold front will cross the county from west to east early Monday morning. High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will struggle to escape the 40's more typical of Late November than mid October.
Record high today is 94 degrees set way back in 1897. The record low is 27 degrees from 1939. Daily rain record is the 1.66" that fell in 2019.
Go Phillies and Go Birds!
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Checking in for the first time from Tulsa! Well technically southern Broken Arrow. In my week here its been mostly quiet but we had some storms last night, just 0.11". Looks like our first freeze coming up and then more warm weather for at least a week. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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3 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

Checking in for the first time from Tulsa! Well technically southern Broken Arrow. In my week here its been mostly quiet but we had some storms last night, just 0.11". Looks like our first freeze coming up and then more warm weather for at least a week. 

Welcome! Used to be like 1 single poster from OK. Now it's becoming a team. I am active here mostly for winter events, and the more interesting tropical storms will get my attention.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Now that Tuesday AM is getting closer for more accurate progs-- here are some ideas of low temps Tuesday AM across IA and NE etc. 18Z suite

Record lows for Tuesday AM = it's going to be very close for most long term climate sites.

KDSM - 22F in 1972

KOMA- 20F in 1972

KFSD- 15F in 1972

KSUX- 20F in 1972

KLNK- 21F in 1972

also-

Waterloo: 18 (1952)
Mason City: 17 (1972)
Ottumwa: 23 (1972)
Lamoni: 23 (1972)

sfct.us_mw.pngsfct.us_mw.png

sfct.us_mw.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

Checking in for the first time from Tulsa! Well technically southern Broken Arrow. In my week here its been mostly quiet but we had some storms last night, just 0.11". Looks like our first freeze coming up and then more warm weather for at least a week. 

Welcome here new fellow Oklahoman! :D

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Welcome! Used to be like 1 single poster from OK. Now it's becoming a team. I am active here mostly for winter events, and the more interesting tropical storms will get my attention.

I used to be one of only 2 on my other weather forum, now there are 4 of them! (one of them comes here during the winter)

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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This is a nice cold air mass coming. Highs for mby on Mon-Tues in the low 40s ( some spots not getting outta the 30s for highs). Snowshowers are a real good possibility as well and w/ the holidays not too far away, its a real treat. It will be short lived though as this trough breaks by weeks end. Warm-up anticipated by the weekend.

https://s.w-x.co/ColdBlast1016.jpg

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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4 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

I used to be one of only 2 on my other weather forum, now there are 4 of them! (one of them comes here during the winter)

I'm glad for the other Okies and yourself. Was getting lonely down here.

I'm the original Okie "snowflake" here, I think. Lol. I've just been quietly praying you other folks brought snow with you. We've been absolutely disappinted for about 10 years, minus 2013-14 and '14-15'.

Andie is from Texas so she's a fellow southerner. We have a good group all together though. I like seeing everyone's weather and pulling for them.

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A week of beautiful pleasant, early Fall weather ahead. Sunny/Partly cloudy 62 to 82 Highs. 
They took the rain out of DFWs forecast.  Rain will stay west and south. Would have been nice.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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8 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I'm glad for the other Okies and yourself. Was getting lonely down here.

I'm the original Okie "snowflake" here, I think. Lol. I've just been quietly praying you other folks brought snow with you. We've been absolutely disappinted for about 10 years, minus 2013-14 and '14-15'.

Andie is from Texas so she's a fellow southerner. We have a good group all together though. I like seeing everyone's weather and pulling for them.

I still remember those 10 very mild winters. I knew that it was going to break at a certain point. 2019-2020 was crazy, but the Temperatures would not comply. And I predicted that Winter 2020-2021 was going to be really nasty. Then came February 2021 and the rest was history. 

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Yesterday, is the quintessential reason why Snowbirds come out to the SW this time of year.  PHX topped out at 78F amidst intermittent sunshine.  It really felt like we flipped the switch into Autumn the past few days.  The cut-off storm spinning on the border of AZ/NM has definitely delivered the "goods" and provided abundant moisture for the region.  More of these on the horizon???   Yes! #SWFLOW

Not only did it rain, but there was SNOW on the radar in the White Mountains to my East and up near the ski resort of Snowbowl in Flagstaff!

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Pics from Snowbowl...

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From a high of 98F this past Fri, to a string of 70's/80's these next few days will certainly add to that Autumn flavor in the valley.  The following week looks even better as highs stay in the upper 70's and nights in the cool & crisp 50's. 

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Slight chance of some showers today as the cold front crosses the area. Temperatures the next 4 nights will fall into the 30's across Chester County. High temperatures will struggle to escape the 40's both Tuesday and Wednesday. We should see temperatures rising to slightly above above normal toward next weekend.
The record high for today is 89 degrees set in 1908. The record low is 25 degrees in 1937. Record rainfall is 1.30" in 1932.
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Just beautiful to see many days in a row of precip chances for the drought areas of the Central Sub...the anticipated pattern change on schedule.

 

image.gif

 

Let's not forget about the Western U.S. as they get their Octobrrrr Taste of Winter...

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Looks like I've dropped to a low of 28 after looking at several weather stations and apps. as of 7:30 am.  Forecast tonight still calling for lows in the upper teens to low 20's.  NWS Hastings did mention some potential high clouds overnight that might not let all of Nebraska get this cold.  We'll see.

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Good morning. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 52/39 there was an official 0.19” of rain fall reported. And just 4% of possible sunshine. There was no reported snow fall. Here in MBY as of 8 AM this morning I recorded 0.54” of rain fall much of that falling overnight. There was a good amount of small hail in a heavy shower yesterday afternoon. The overnight low and current temperature here in my yard was/is 38. For today the average H/L is now down to 60/42 the record high of 84 was set in 1947 and the record low of 22 was set in 1972. The most snow fall of a trace was reported in 8 years the last time was in 2002. Last year the H/L was 62/44. BYW the record coldest maximum for today is 42 set in 2002 and it was 43 in 2004 and 1972.

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Reached 17 degrees here this morning, good for our coldest min so far this season.

Just weird to me to have these kinds of temps in October. Normally have to wait till an arctic outbreak hit the PNW later in winter (normally December at the earliest) to see teen readings.

Cross Polar Flow delivering the Octobrrrr Chill....man, that's gotta feel cold!  I had to put my hoodie on over here for the 1st and its ONLY 61F...LOL

gfs_uv250_namer_1.png

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18 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

18Z GFS-

sfct.us_mw.png

..and then there's the balmy MItt

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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We will finally have troughs moving into the west, but models are showing the troughs sweeping eastward so quickly that very little rain falls over the middle of the country.

GFS

image.thumb.png.78ba66eba1e623fd90a064dc6faab036.png

Euro

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

We will finally have troughs moving into the west, but models are showing the troughs sweeping eastward so quickly that very little rain falls over the middle of the country.

GFS

image.thumb.png.78ba66eba1e623fd90a064dc6faab036.png

Euro

image.thumb.png.0cca2f1a569ced3c5c7b219336b3f61c.png

Euro looks good for SMI tho. Ponds arcross this region are all but dried up. We need some good soaking rains, not the hit-n-miss T-shower action of summer.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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