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October 2022 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

..and then there's the balmy MItt

But wait!  Da Yooper-land making up for us down here.

image.png.7a04e3896617f79eb50a6150a6f8eda2.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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A cold bite to the wind today! It feels like November. 55/43. Wind chill feels like upper 40's. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

A cold bite to the wind today! It feels like November. 55/43. Wind chill feels like upper 40's. 

41F and pretty good rain/wind when I headed home from the office. Purposely left my heat OFF in the car - trying to acclimate as it looks like the cold wants to dominate for the foreseeable future. Notwithstanding a pull-back for Indian Summer ofc. Finally went with the defroster as my windshield wanted to fog up. Driving in Detroit is hazardous enough! 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

But wait!  Da Yooper-land making up for us down here.

image.png.7a04e3896617f79eb50a6150a6f8eda2.png

New owners of Snow River by their actions will destroy small businesses this winter. They are not making a good name for themselves in any of the communities up here...pretty big boycott/push to Powderhorn.

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I see Lake Michigan has been upgraded to a STORM WARNING - didn't see that coming tbh. 

And hey, it's not just Yooperland getting an early taste from Old Man Winter:

image.png.0f2e1bdf9bb65124db4ad0d9ba127c69.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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image.png.894d3d0052a143b858413cf76677d025.png

 

Am I reading that correct? A full 24 hr warning. Not sure we've seen that since perhaps Sandy came through. Needless to say, this during winter would be a massive LES bliz.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Although, the 500mb pattern looks a bit wonkier with a low bombing out off the W Coast and a slight ridge springing up over the SW between that low and the deeper trough over the GL. Much weaker with the GOA ridge vs the 06z as well. 

Lots to iron out with this pattern over the next week or so as we have many more moving parts than we have been accustomed to with the long-standing pattern leading up to this change. Probably best to maintain eyes on ensembles which will be less prone to volatility. 

2022-10-17 11_40_37-Model viewer - Vivaldi.png

Lots to iron out is right and it all starts with where the MJO is headed.  The Euro has it stalling in 6 while the JMA moves it into 7 and the GFS takes it into the null phase.  The JMA has been rock solid imo when it comes to forecasting the MJO.

image.png.ef085b0dc2cf2c09874d83e36d3178fc.png

image.png.62200558f61415cdd6efcf576629f8b2.png

image.png.038d66fc9f9c0c68db4f7bb0dcb28b88.png

 

 

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Pretty busy in NMI this evening. Let's see this move south in coming weeks:

 

Screenshot 2022-10-17 APX headlines.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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15 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

image.png.894d3d0052a143b858413cf76677d025.png

 

Am I reading that correct? A full 24 hr warning. Not sure we've seen that since perhaps Sandy came through. Needless to say, this during winter would be a massive LES bliz.

I would guess those waves will do some serious damage?

 

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7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I would guess those waves will do some serious damage?

 

The good news there is the winds will be more northerly so not directly onto land. Also, the crazy high lake levels seen a couple years ago have come down enough to help mitigate vs exacerbate windstorm impacts. Winds and trees still with leaves under snow looks to be the main hazard. Many thousands without power in Indiana from this evening's snowfall there. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This is a rarity. Fort Wayne getting pounded by a streamer off lake Mich 100+ miles to their NW. 

Screenshot 2022-10-17 Radar.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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October?? 17 ??  

Who thought we'd descend so quickly into this mode?  Autumn's not a month old. Was still enjoying late summer at this point last year. 

 

 

Screenshot 2022-10-17 IWX briefing.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Low of 45 tonight and 40 tomorrow night.  That’s pretty chilly for us on the 17th/18th of Oct.  

I’m curious if this is a hint of what Fall and Winter will bring.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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@AndieThere is a slight risk of heavy rain just before the end of October along and East of I-35 from OKC to Dallas and further south! 

But, be cautious about it, the SOI has been showing a positive reading for 35+ days now. 

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Well I’m west of 35 maybe 20 miles.  
I’ll be happy to get some rain. Even heavy, but please no hail.  My list of projects is long enough.  Gotta get it done before surgery in about a month. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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real quick-- but OMA SMASHED record so far at 17F and KDSM so far broke record at 21F.  (doesn't show on this map-- after the ob, but it's my job )

Will update soon, but a record breaking COLD outbreak this AM-  7F in Sheldon,IA --- gotta be close to all time coldest for IA for the date.

image.thumb.png.26707965ab87b2e63a31cc4ec6ade6c2.png

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The first snows of the season came to the mtn's of N NM near Santa Fe, NM where upwards of 8" fell on the peaks.  This is a great sign of things to come down the road for the cold season.  Next trough is coming through the region the following weekend.

image.png

 

I had a vision back in Aug when I was up in the mtn's in Park City, UT that this area would have a banner snow season...well, I'm thrilled to see the 1st big trough rolling through the Rockies this weekend and delivering an impressive snowfall.  This is just the beginning of what will be a storm train off the PAC.

image.png

 

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Let's not forgot KC--- 26F as of last report (may have been colder or get colder) but record was 28F. That's three major climate sites breaking min/min records with data back near 150 years.  Pretty impressive cold snap-- albeit brief. 

16F Saint Joe, MO,, old record 27F. -- for that latitude with no snow on the ground this early is D**n impressive. image.thumb.png.60d2f8ad2e8c1b485b7c2a9def6389ef.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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KSUX also smashing record of 20F in 1972. Currently 16F.

Will do some research on this date and tomorrow in 1972 as I think there was snow involved.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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For mid to late October yesterday was a rather cold day. The official H/L yesterday was 46/38 It was the 9th coldest maximum for the date at Grand Rapids the rain fall for the day was 0.52” a trace of snow fall was reported that ties the record for the date. There was no sunshine. Here at my house there was enough sleet to cover the ground for a while. The overnight low both here in MBY and at the airport has been 36. That is the current temperature here with a light mist falling. For today the average H/L is 60/42 the record high of 82 was recorded in 1910,1938 and 1950. The record low is 19 set in 1976 that is the earliest low of below 20 at Grand Rapids. The record snow fall is 0.9” set in 1972. There was 0.3” of snow in 1991 and 0.1” in 1990. While it looks cold this week the temperatures will stay above 32 and we have yet to have a hard freeze

 

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The NWS has posted a freeze warning for Western Chester County and a Frost Advisory for Easter Chester County for overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. If we do see freezing temps tomorrow morning that would end the growing season at 182 days. Our last freezing temperature was on April 20th. The growing season averages 172 days in the lower elevations of the county below 430 feet and 186 days in the higher elevations. The average date of first fall freeze is October 14th in lower spots and October 24th in the relatively higher locales. The shortest growing season in County history was the 119 days back in 1956. The longest season was 233 days back in 2005.
The record high for today is 89 degrees set in 1908. The record low is 22 degrees from 1974. The daily rainfall record is 1.98" from 1911.
image.png.787dec8986330582253d04cda4120f84.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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5 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

High monday of 42 with 100% sunshine.  Low last night of 22. But relentless  wind  kept temp up. This was some of strongest cold air avection I can every remember  mid October? 

That's what you get when the origin of this air came off the Arctic circle!

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7 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

High monday of 42 with 100% sunshine.  Low last night of 22. But relentless  wind  kept temp up. This was some of strongest cold air avection I can every remember  mid October? 

Your right on. Serious CAA and that the temps dropped to what they did is more impressive with the mixing ( winds) and no snow cover.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Dropped to 26 this morning, decent freeze, likely see 21-24 tonight and up to 80-85 this weekend. Sounds like KC's weather. 

 

WE REALLY NEED THAT STORM TO HIT MONDAY. Varying solutions right now, we're close to some heavy amounts with some of the data. Hopefully we trend in the right direction as the week moves on. 

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We bottomed out last night at 45 in Ft Worth. High should reach 65.  
Nice to feel the chill.   

Ran across a curious article on Europes drought. Empty rivers are revealing ancient boats and Roman bridges.  Amazing what lurks under these ancient river ways.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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25 at my house this morning. I may make a run at the upper teens tonight and break the record low of 21.  44 will be the high today which is the average low, very impressive!

RECORD*** The Record low of 28 set in 1972 was broken this morning as Kansas City International reached 25 degrees. This would be a normal low for December 12th and makes for the first hard freeze of the season which on average occurs on 11/5. #NotNormal #RecordBreakingKC

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

25 at my house this morning. I may make a run at the upper teens tonight and break the record low of 21. 

That is much colder than it has been here so far this fall season. In Michigan the lakes and the clouds they produce keep the nighttime temperatures up and that can last well into winter.

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