October 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Grizzcoat]

FTR,

2nd week of Sept 22', DSM ASOS was moved approximately 1/4 mile to the NW due to airport enlargement/construction. The NWS has said this movement is not significant to effect climo. ( I slightly disagree as it's now further away from the main runways, concrete, and more exposed to winds Not coming over concrete). But very fickle, none the less.

Since that time, myself and other observers have noticed a very slight down turn in overall temps compared to the old spot. Like less then one Degree F, but more responsive to change, esp at night.

I've been a CWO at KDSM for nearly 23 years. I don't think based on that experience that the old observation site would've recorded as cold as it did this AM ( or other times).

Point is- climate data is fickle. And our entire climo history is not apples to apples as subtle changes to locations are very likely not taken into account by most who read the #'s..

 

 

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

12z GFS still has a 1-2 punch with storm 1 hitting the Dakotas next week and storm 2 parks over the great lakes toward end of the month. Wouldn't be surprised if North Dakota gets a lot of snow. Curious how the Euro handles this.

[Doinko]

4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

New uber-long-range EPS looks pretty nice near the end of November. Muddled warmth until then.

Those don't look bad for the PNW too

[Niko]

It has been a wet, windy cold day today here in S MI. Temps have been hovering all day in the low 40s, to about near 40F. No snow has been reported or seen by me here where I am. Maybe tanite as temps drop into the 30s, a mix can occur.

Weekend looks splendid w temps warming into the (Dare I say it) 70's!!!!! Oh, and that goes w/ sunshine too. 

Indian Summer is coming, but not sure how long it lasts. I t could be warm all of next week per Euro 8-14 day outlook w temps averaging above to well above normal.

[Andie]

28 minutes ago, Niko said:

It has been a wet, windy cold day today here in S MI. Temps have been hovering all day in the low 40s, to about near 40F. No snow has been reported or seen by me here where I am. Maybe tanite as temps drop into the 30s, a mix can occur.

Weekend looks splendid w temps warming into the (Dare I say it) 70's!!!!! Oh, and that goes w/ sunshine too. 

Indian Summer is coming, but not sure how long it lasts. I t could be warm all of next week per Euro 8-14 day outlook w temps averaging above to well above normal.

Sounds more like the “Indian” needs a fur lined coat.  
Winter’s just round the corner up there, Niko   

Texas is just now feeling hints of the cool of Fall.  
I have a suspicion we will all have more of a typical fall this year.  
We’re at a sunny 64.  Cooling down to 40 tonight.  

[Iceresistance]

2 hours ago, Andie said:

Sounds more like the “Indian” needs a fur lined coat.  
Winter’s just round the corner up there, Niko   

Texas is just now feeling hints of the cool of Fall.  
I have a suspicion we will all have more of a typical fall this year.  
We’re at a sunny 64.  Cooling down to 40 tonight.  

DFW is expected to fall to 37

Me? 30

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Niko said:

It has been a wet, windy cold day today here in S MI. Temps have been hovering all day in the low 40s, to about near 40F. No snow has been reported or seen by me here where I am. Maybe tanite as temps drop into the 30s, a mix can occur.

Weekend looks splendid w temps warming into the (Dare I say it) 70's!!!!! Oh, and that goes w/ sunshine too. 

Indian Summer is coming, but not sure how long it lasts. I t could be warm all of next week per Euro 8-14 day outlook w temps averaging above to well above normal.

The windy rain has brought down quite a bit of leaves I noticed too. Some trees are bare already, while hardiest varieties are still thinking about turning. Still should be some really nice color viewing this coming weekend. 

[Niko]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

The windy rain has brought down quite a bit of leaves I noticed too. Some trees are bare already, while hardiest varieties are still thinking about turning. Still should be some really nice color viewing this coming weekend. 

You are absolutely right, this weekend should feature some very nice colors. B4 ya know it, all trees will be bare. Also this October has been a colder one than recent years and colors have started to change earlier as well. Like you said, some trees are already bare.

Did you get any snow in Canton, or mixing? Nada here. Just a cold rain, which is what I prefer for this time of the year. I want the good snows to come when its the right time of the year for our area, (such as from mid November or later), also, less daylight hours and colder averages help. Tbh, I don't mind seeing a few flakes in October, kinda remind you of winter is just around the corner.

[Clinton]

Still no consistency and lots of spread among the ensembles regarding precipitation amounts for next Monday and Tuesday.  It can be hard to break a dry pattern and it looks like some may get missed next week.

[Andie]

And very chilly 36 this morning.   
My husband has been resisting turning any heat on inside.   I’m freezing but I’m going to hear those words! “Let’s turn it on!”  

[Tom]

40 minutes ago, Andie said:

And very chilly 36 this morning.   
My husband has been resisting turning any heat on inside.   I’m freezing but I’m going to hear those words! “Let’s turn it on!”  

That's impressive Andie!  Wow, Record low's being shattered across the southern U.S. this morning and even down towards the GOM.  When this pattern cycles through mid/late Winter it's going to leave a mark.

 

@Clinton, it looks like Whiteman AFB just hit a new all time monthly low of 19.6F!  Octobrrrrr....

 

[Tom]

Today, will mark the 3rd consecutive day in the 40's for ORD if the forecast temp of 47F holds.  If this does, some noticable Winters pop up....while no correlation, it's fun to look back a stats.  2000-01' and 2009-10 were some good seasons iirc...I'd take a DEC 2000 repeat....

[Andie]

@Tom So, any chance of that deep freeze that Tx/Okla experienced where Texas lost power for a week?

Our concern here is the long overall pattern is changing.  

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a very cold mid-October day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 41/36 that 41 was the 4^th coldest Maximum for any October 18^th for Grand Rapids. There was 0.10” of rain all and 0% sunshine. No snow fall was reported. The overnight low both here in MBY and at GRR was 39 and that is the current temperature here with cloudy skies. For today the average H/L is now down to 59/41 The record high of 80 was set in 1910 and 1920. The record low of 19 was set in 1974. The record snow fall for the date is 4.5” in 1989. Last year the H/L was 72/42.

 

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, Andie said:

@Tom So, any chance of that deep freeze that Tx/Okla experienced where Texas lost power for a week?

Our concern here is the long overall pattern is changing.  

To early to say, but my gut feeling is you will see some arctic blasts this coming cold season.  The high lat blocking is not showing signs of dissipating as we get deeper into Autumn and early Winter.

[chescowxman]

Many spots across Chester County fell to freezing or below including here in East Nantmeal where we fell to 32.2. We also have quite a bit of frost to go with the freezing temps. The growing season has ended at 182 days between freezing temps (last on April 20th)

Below normal temps will continue through Friday, warming to above normal by the weekend into next week. Dry weather for at least the next week.

The record high for today is 83 degrees. Record low is 22 degrees from 1974. Daily rainfall record is 3.14" from 1996,

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

That's impressive Andie!  Wow, Record low's being shattered across the southern U.S. this morning and even down towards the GOM.  When this pattern cycles through mid/late Winter it's going to leave a mark.

 

@Clinton, it looks like Whiteman AFB just hit a new all time monthly low of 19.6F!  Octobrrrrr....

 

Ya temps tanked last night I had 21 this morning with light winds and very little frost.

[westMJim]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I had 21 this morning with light winds and very little frost.

That is cold for your area this early

[Niko]

6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Ya temps tanked last night I had 21 this morning with light winds and very little frost.

21F??? Holy Sh*t!

[Niko]

Atm, its a cool 39F w/ cloudy, wet conditions. A few showers are around, but no snow mixing in. Today should feature another day w/ well BN temps. Looking forward to the nice warm-up coming up.

[james1976]

I had 19 driving into work this morning. Couple degrees colder than yesterday morning. 

[Hawkeye]

Much of Iowa fell into the teens this morning.  The Cedar Rapids airport dropped to 16º, breaking the old record by 3º.  The personal station down the road from me, which hit 25º yesterday morning, made it down to 20º this morning.

[MIKEKC]

Drop to 19 degrees in MBY, I too had little frost. My neighbor forgot to turn is irrigation system off, it ran. It was a beautiful icy scene in his yard. 

Now, we could hit 80-85 Friday through Sunday....I love it!

[OKwx2k4]

This 44 is feeling pretty crazy as a lunch temperature! I love it.

Its a beautiful day! Can't wait to imagine it 11 degrees colder and with snow on the ground.

[CentralNebWeather]

Boy are the Canadian and GFS different for the storm early next week.  GFS basically dry slots Nebraska, where the Canadian has a lot of moisture.  Will be interesting to see where the Euro is with this.

[Tom]

Forgot to post this screenshot of a reporting station in W IA earlier this morning....D**n that's cold reading even if its not official!

 

[Iceresistance]

Crazy temperature differences today, I managed to fall to 28°F, and it got up to 66°F this afternoon. 

[Clinton]

18z GFS shifted west with the rainfall early next week.  All the models except the Euro are showing 1 or more inches of rainfall for KC, with the Canadian and ICON even further west and with higher amounts.  

 

[gabel23]

Haven’t seen rain in close to 2 months. Lord help us please; good to see a major storm setting up in the central parts of the US but man could I use just a bit of this precip. 

[Clinton]

7 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Haven’t seen rain in close to 2 months. Lord help us please; good to see a major storm setting up in the central parts of the US but man could I use just a bit of this precip. 

The air is dry today we warmed up from 21 to 56 with a NW wind.

[Madtown]

whats this all about?

[gabel23]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The air is dry today we warmed up from 21 to 56 with a NW wind.

Insanely dry! We we from 20 to 67 today. Dry skin is taking its toll….

[Black Hole]

Low of 26 F at Tulsa this morning breaking the daily record and the earliest on record to have a reading so low. Quickly turning around though with highs in the 70s by tomorrow and 80s the next day. 

[Black Hole]

Interesting with this next system how we could ingest moisture from a Pacific Hurricane. Still lots of uncertainty with respect to whether the system can really phase properly with the moisture, but if it does it could be a good storm! I think the best bet is for the main trough to pass a little too quickly to the east but we will see.

[OKwx2k4]

Look to have recorded 21 degrees here in eastern Oklahoma this morning from the mesonet. That's pretty darn cold!

[OKwx2k4]

3 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

Interesting with this next system how we could ingest moisture from a Pacific Hurricane. Still lots of uncertainty with respect to whether the system can really phase properly with the moisture, but if it does it could be a good storm! I think the best bet is for the main trough to pass a little too quickly to the east but we will see.

In future cycles, or later on in the season, this will be fun to see again.

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

Haven’t seen rain in close to 2 months. Lord help us please; good to see a major storm setting up in the central parts of the US but man could I use just a bit of this precip. 

I understand seeing things get abysmally dry. That was my whole summer. Hoping you see some precip soon.

[Clinton]

Winds have shifted to the south and temps have risen to 40 already this morning.  Looking ahead to Sunday night severe weather may be possible depending on the timing of the cold front, lots of shear and moisture from the gulf available. 

[westMJim]

Yesterday’s official H/L at Grand Rapids was 46/33 there was a trace of rain all and 14% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY for today so far is 34. At the current time it is 39 and cloudy here. The average H/L for today is 59/41 the record high of 83 was set in 1953 the record low of 22 was set in 1952 and 1974. The record snow fall of 2.2” was set in 1992. Last year the H/L was 71/47.

 

[chescowxman]

It looks like most spots across Chester County remained just above the freezing mark this morning...but quite a bit of frost once again. The next couple days will continue with below normal temps before warming to near normal by Saturday. Of note yesterday was the earliest measurable snow here in Chester County when 1" of snow fell in 1940.

The record high today is 82 degrees set in 1969. The record low is 21 degrees from 1972. The daily rainfall record is 2.48" set in 1988.