October 2022 Observations and Discussion

[chescowxman]

34 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Yesterday’s official H/L at Grand Rapids was 46/33 there was a trace of rain all and 14% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY for today so far is 34. At the current time it is 39 and cloudy here. The average H/L for today is 59/41 the record high of 83 was set in 1953 the record low of 22 was set in 1952 and 1974. The record snow fall of 2.2” was set in 1992. Last year the H/L was 71/47.

 

Interesting we have the same record ranges with both of us seeing the same record low back in 1974.

[Tom]

Many of you will welcome the long awaited Indian Summer weather over the heartland of the Nation starting on Friday and through the weekend.  It's perfect timing for everyone to get out and enjoy the Halloween decor, Pumpkin farms and take care of some outdoor yard prep & clean ups.  

I see ORD dipped to a low of 33F yesterday and that is the current temp this morning.  It's been a chilly past few days back home and I'm sure a lot of folks are ready for some warmth. PHX topped out at 88F yesterday and making a run towards 91F (avg is 88F).  

[Tom]

JMA all day....it continues to whoop the Euro in the MJO dept...Phase 7 here we come!

 

As a result, it is seeing a rather interesting 500mb pattern for the 1st half of NOV...the dominant -NAO will allow storms to track underneath the Ridge in Canada into the lower 48.

 

Temp pattern appears to indicate warmth over Canada and seasonal to BN over the eastern CONUS...the model doesn't see cold as most global models don’t these days.

  

 

 

[snowstorm83]

Yesterday had a low of 16 at LNK before hitting 65 by the afternoon. Avg high/low for the month is 72/38 so far (normal is 66/41). Needing to find all my scattered chapsticks a bit early this year 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Reed’s way more optimistic than I am at this point. (Not surprising!)

LCL’s look to be way too high for much of a tornado potential at this time.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Indian Summer back with a vengeance and perfect timing falling on a weekend too. Crazy considering it was 17 IMBY Tuesday morning. From record low to record highs in 5 days.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Kinda “cool” to see what a killing freeze does to outdoor plants

The Canna Lilies look like they were in a severe wind or hailstorm. Would have been cool to do a time lapse!

[Niko]

I am happy to say that my first flakes of the season are flying this morning. Yes, it is snowing moderately as a matter of fact. It s not sticking as temps are holding steady at 36F. Beautiful scenery. Tis the season!! 

[jaster220]

Currently a balmy 40F

No snow falling from the sky despite some surface maps showing such. There are a few flakes mixing in just a bit to my N

[jaster220]

On 10/19/2022 at 7:46 AM, Tom said:

Today, will mark the 3rd consecutive day in the 40's for ORD if the forecast temp of 47F holds.  If this does, some noticable Winters pop up....while no correlation, it's fun to look back a stats.  2000-01' and 2009-10 were some good seasons iirc...I'd take a DEC 2000 repeat....

For DTW, I believe all four were good to great fwiw.

[Clinton]

12z GFS has a good looking storm for KC monday, it has trended towards the Canadian just a little further east. 

[OKwx2k4]

Then give me GFS hour 120 later this s3ason. Oh yes. 

Going to get bumpy down here before it gets snowy, I'm afraid.

There's a cost for second spring.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Lots of drought stuff

Here in Omaha we’ve had one day of rain since 9/24. Gonna be a close call for Sunday too.

[jaster220]

Storm still going here - saved some of the best for last here in SEMI

[Iceresistance]

This upcoming storm system is really hard to forecast, that is all I can say for this weekend and next week for now.

[james1976]

On 10/19/2022 at 12:37 PM, Tom said:

Forgot to post this screenshot of a reporting station in W IA earlier this morning....D**n that's cold reading even if its not official!

 

@Tom this may have been accurate. Local met last night said Sheldon, IA got down to 10° which was the coldest temp in the lower 48.

[gabel23]

3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Sharing a post from the PNW side of the forum. The #1 analog they used was 1985-1986 which this October actually seems to be mirroring October 1985 fairly well, at least at FSD. November 1985 in Sioux Falls looked pretty insane with us recording 22 inches of snow (normal is 6.2) and a departure of -14 on the month. December posted a -13 with 9 inches of snow (higher than normal) and a snow depth of 10 inches going into Christmas Eve. Sounds like heaven.

As for the other analogs on that list...

• Half of the Novembers featured considerably more snow than normal
• 2/3 of Decembers also featured more snow than normal
• January was almost always below normal snow while February was pretty evenly split
• Vast majority of them recorded below normal temps throughout the winter season
• There was only one really bad stinker in there, being 2001-2002 in which every month was above normal temperatures and below normal snow (except November 2001). Last year wasn't particularly good either but at least had one above normal snow and below normal temp month

85-86 was a dreadful winter for us, at least at Columbus and Lincoln reporting areas. Well below snowfall and lots of temp swings. Columbus didn't record a single inch of snow in the month of Jan which is very hard to do. 

[CentralNebWeather]

5 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

85-86 was a dreadful winter for us, at least at Columbus and Lincoln reporting areas. Well below snowfall and lots of temp swings. Columbus didn't record a single inch of snow in the month of Jan which is very hard to do. 

That was a horrible winter around here for lack of snow and moisture.  

[Tom]

16 minutes ago, james1976 said:

@Tom this may have been accurate. Local met last night said Sheldon, IA got down to 10° which was the coldest temp in the lower 48.

That's the most impressive temp stat I've seen in mid October with no snow OTG!  Crazy stuff.

[Tom]

"Here....Cutter, Cutter, Cutter???"  That's what the 12z Euro and Canadian are suggesting...#SWFlow

 

[Iceresistance]

31 minutes ago, Tom said:

"Here....Cutter, Cutter, Cutter???"  That's what the 12z Euro and Canadian are suggesting...#SWFlow

 

Don't forget the ICON! It's showing it too for the Southern Plains!

[snowstorm83]

52 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

85-86 was a dreadful winter for us, at least at Columbus and Lincoln reporting areas. Well below snowfall and lots of temp swings. Columbus didn't record a single inch of snow in the month of Jan which is very hard to do. 

Lincoln had 18.9" that year, though only a trace in January. Late November and most of December were cold with snow on the ground, and also a stretch in February. Not a great year, but it sounds like it wasn't physically impossible for more than an inch of snow to fall, so I'll take it over last year 

[Iceresistance]

I'm under a Fire Weather Watch for this weekend.

[Clinton]

Both the GEFS and EPS are showing beneficial rains in places that are needing it badly.  The trend today by both models is an increase in amounts.  They've been shown up by the CMC and ICON with this storm.

[Iceresistance]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Both the GEFS and EPS are showing beneficial rains in places that are needing it badly.  The trend today by both models is an increase in amounts.  They've been shown up by the CMC and ICON with this storm.

Someone on my other forum said "What kind of alternative universe is this "

[Iceresistance]

75/40 today

[jaster220]

7 hours ago, gabel23 said:

85-86 was a dreadful winter for us, at least at Columbus and Lincoln reporting areas. Well below snowfall and lots of temp swings. Columbus didn't record a single inch of snow in the month of Jan which is very hard to do. 

7 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

That was a horrible winter around here for lack of snow and moisture.  

Was an awesome winter for the Lakes. Areas of N Mich had 5+ feet OTG before a mid-winter melt off. Just happened to be the weekend I headed north to ski. Was still plenty of snow on the slopes but the "Winter Wonderland" effect of extremely deep powder was MIA. I remember a friend in Traverse telling me how they and their kids were sledding down the hill in their backyard. Instead of sliding on the snow, they were just going through a tunnel about a 100 foot drop down to the frozen lake they lived on. I've seen depths like that twice up in the snowbelts. Jan '79 and Jan '82. 

[Hawkeye]

I'm liking the trend for early to mid next week.  The entire area badly needs a soaker.

[Iceresistance]

@Andie and @OKwx2k4, The WPC now has a Slight Risk of Heavy Rainfall in Northern Texas and most of Central and Eastern Oklahoma next Monday!

[chescowxman]

A couple beautiful autumnal days on tap both today and tomorrow across Chester County PA. Highs today will be close to normal. Tomorrow highs will be slightly above normal. A chance of some showers with a low moving up the east coast by later Sunday.

The record high for today is 85 degrees set back in 1947. The record low is 19 degrees - the earliest sub 20 low set back in 1922. The daily rainfall record is 3.13" set way back in 1904.

[westMJim]

We are now about 2/3rds of the way thru October 2022. At Grand Rapids the mean for the month so far is 48.9 that is a departure of -4.6 the high so far this month is 75 on 11^th and the low so far is 30 on the 8^th the first 10 days of the month there was only a trace of rain fall but in the last 10 days there has been a total of 2.45” that is still below the average of 2.59” there has been a trace of snow fall and that too is below the average of 0.1”

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 54/34 there was a reported trace of rain fall and 37% of possible sunshine. The overnight low at GRR was a reported 33 (the current temperature there is 40) Here in MBY the low was 32 and that is the current temperature here. For today the average H/L is now down to 58/41 the record high of 85 was in 1953 and the record low of 18 was in 1976. The record snow fall for the date is 1.1” and that was also in 1976. Last year the H/L was 59/44 and there was 0.79” of rain fall.

 

[Clinton]

7 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I'm liking the trend for early to mid next week.  The entire area badly needs a soaker.

It's been a long time since we've seen a series of storms target the central US.  I'll remember this has the October trio, sign me up for this a few times over the Winter.

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

@Andie and @OKwx2k4, The WPC now has a Slight Risk of Heavy Rainfall in Northern Texas and most of Central and Eastern Oklahoma next Monday!

Some mid range models indicating some severe weather for Oklahoma and Texas possible Monday afternoon.  I bet the SPC increases the risk level over the weekend.

 

[Tom]

13 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It's been a long time since we've seen a series of storms target the central US.  I'll remember this has the October trio, sign me up for this a few times over the Winter,

Wow, I literally just created a storm thread and we are on the same page my friend!  

 

[tStacsh]

Amazing stretch of weather coming up for SMI.  68 now the high for today and will be in the mid 70's through next Monday.   Looks like with MIchigan football being off this saturday on a bye week and the Lions unwatchable on Sundays again   I will be able to winterize my yard.  

[snowstorm83]

89 (and blowing dust) in the grids for Sunday. If it hits 90, that will break the latest 90 degree day on record by 3 days. Beginning Sunday I'll also begin living in Grand Island permanently. 

[Clinton]

Windy and warm weather here this weekend, quite the change from the record lows we had earlier this week.  Highs this weekend look to range from the low to mid 80s.

[Andie]

49 headed for 87*. 
Highs these next 3 days will be 87 until Sunday when a front moves through.  
Highs will be 78 & 71 Sunday & Monday with rain in the picture.  
Come on rain!

[OKwx2k4]

Bowling ball, rainfall, and a mtn west full of snowy cold air reserves....

Great close to October!

Going to get bumpy after the nice weekend. Hoping to make it through the fire potential.

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Unfortunately still looking problematic in the precip department for the Dakotas and the N/Central Plain states as we look to stand right in between the two main systems moving through next week. Too far south to get substantial rain with the Sunday PM/Monday AM system, too far north for the Tues/Wed system. Hopefully we can score something on Monday AM because otherwise it's more of the same abnormally dry conditions for the foreseeable future.

On the brightside, at least my friends in the PNW will finally get enough rain to put out those pesky wildfires. Can't believe that's still an issue in mid-October. 

In other news, my drought worries will be totally eliminated. Haha.