October 2022 Observations and Discussion

[bud2380]

Southeast Canada getting an early start to winter.

 

[Madtown]

Last one, maybe. Colors are just unreal this year. Today is peak in my book. Leaves starting to hit the ground this afternoon.

[Iceresistance]

The Dakotas are expecting a very nasty freeze on Saturday morning, some locations will fall as low as 15°F

[Andie]

Wow, to have color like that!

Beautiful!

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Madtown said:

Last one, maybe. Colors are just unreal this year. Today is peak in my book. Leaves starting to hit the ground this afternoon.

Looks beautiful!  Enjoy the colors and pretty soon those will be snow covered roads.  Im looking forward to seeing the winter pics and vids this season.

[CentralNebWeather]

Leaves really starting to turn. My trees just exploding with color in the last week. The rains of the last month have sure helped in my opinion. 

[Tom]

Tracking the seasons strongest CF yet....temps are to nose dive later this afternoon in Chicago, but before that happens, they will creep up into the low 70's, then crash into the 40's amid strong northerly winds and lake effect rain showers.  I can only imagine what this front could produce in the heart of Winter.  Not to mention, Lake Superior will deliver some snow flakes up north?  @Madtown

 

 

[Tom]

This will be a long post and cover a broad spectrum of the developing OCT wx pattern.  They say, "What happens in OCT, Cycles Back in DEC"...friends, what I'm seeing evolving this month is eye candy for literally all of us on this Sub.  Even though I'm out here in the deserts of Arizona, where it is still Summer in my book, I'm getting tickled with excitement at the data I'm reviewing.  The models tend to struggle Bigly during the change of seasons and none morse than now.  

Today, on average, marks the 1st day of the new LRC pattern.  We won't know when Day 1 is until later on this calendar year but I feel pretty confident that we are experiencing the 1st days of the new pattern.  The cut-off trough in the SW is a big clue, the developing NE PAC/W NAMER ridge is another one, the Trough N/NW of Hawaii is HUGE, and then the lower heights that stretch all the way from Baja of Mexico into the southern GOM states add confidence that an active STJ will be part of the Long Term Long Wave pattern.  Those that live over the southern 1/2 of the Sub must be rather intrigued with this developing pattern.  I'll be honest, I've been watching this region closely bc we haven't seen something as such in a number of years.

Nearly all the models are all showing a similar jet stream pattern for the southern edge of the U.S...2 things that stand out....1) Split Flow over the West. 2) N Caribbean Ridge (not the GOM Ridge we have seen before)....if you fast forward this jet pattern in the winter months when it shifts south...look out...#ActiveSTJ...all day...SW Flow will combine with Tropical moisture.

 

Overnight runs of the models, confirm what I have opined that from the GL's/MW and points East the pattern looks trough-like and cool, while folks farther west/south experience your typical volatile temp pattern.  The combination of both a -EPO/+PNA is a major clue that this will be a common player on the field as we head deeper into the cold season.

 

Let's take a look at the latest JMA weeklies as they pretty much sum up with what I was saying above...

Week 2...nasty looking W NAMER Ridge and lower heights over the southern US...

Temp/Precip...BN temps from the SW/Central/East U.S. and a wet SW/S Plains...

 

 

 

Week 3-4...Blocking up on Top and a beauty of a trough underneath...oh yeah, I almost missed this but check out the East Asian Trough...that is a good piece of info to produce a trough over the Eastern CONUS come NOV.

Temp/Precip...nearly an identical temp pattern and remember this is a LR forecast so it could very well end up being a lot colder provided the blocking ends up being right.  The mean placement of the trough over the CONUS should produce a very active pattern 2nd half of OCT.  Let's see who will be the winners and losers but I suspect there will be a lot of more winners this month.  

 

[chescowxman]

Beautiful stretch of autumnal weather starting today. Temps will be near normal today and tomorrow before below normal weather for the weekend into next week.

Our record high for today is 94 degrees from 1900. The record low was 28 degrees from 1965. The daily rainfall record is 2.00" set back in 1932.

[CentralNebWeather]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Tracking the seasons strongest CF yet....temps are to nose dive later this afternoon in Chicago, but before that happens, they will creep up into the low 70's, then crash into the 40's amid strong northerly winds and lake effect rain showers.  I can only imagine what this front could produce in the heart of Winter.  Not to mention, Lake Superior will deliver some snow flakes up north?  @Madtown

 

 

NWS Hastings mentioning a strong frontogenetic band setting up over my area tomorrow morning through early afternoon.  Possible wet snow flakes?  Yes Please.

"A few locations within
this heavier band could see over 0.50 inches of rain, with amounts
quickly tapering off north and south of this band. There has been
no change regarding expected precipitation type, which for our
area should be in the form of rain. However, with such an intense
precipitation band, a sounding that is just barely above
freezing, and surface temperatures around 35F in our northwest we
could be very close to mixing in a few wet snow flakes in."

 

[westMJim]

We are now have 5 days in the record books for October 2022 and so far each day has had highs above average. On the other hand the nights have been mostly below average. Here at Grand Rapids the official H/L yesterday was 74/42 there was 66% of possible sunshine and no rain fall. The overnight low here in MBY was 48 and the current temperature here is 50. At GRR the overnight low was 50 and the current temperature there is a reported 55. For today the average H/L is now down to 65/45 the record high of 87 was recorded in 2007 and the record low of 28 was set in 1964 and 2003.  Last year the H/L was 71/55.

 

[Tom]

Oh, how quickly that Indian Summer tease has faded...Nice to see the wide coverage of AN precip...

[Beltrami Island]

First non-rain of the cold season falling this morning here. Considering it was near 70 yesterday that's a pretty big change in about 18 hours.

[Timmy Supercell]

I'm enjoying this Fall in eastern Kentucky! There hasn't been a "warm" day in a while. 

It could be a tad wetter, but I like these mornings in the 40's. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Uh oh, someone get @Phil on the phone. One of these guys is in my backyard right now. 

[Jayhawker85]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

This will be a long post and cover a broad spectrum of the developing OCT wx pattern.  They say, "What happens in OCT, Cycles Back in DEC"...friends, what I'm seeing evolving this month is eye candy for literally all of us on this Sub.  Even though I'm out here in the deserts of Arizona, where it is still Summer in my book, I'm getting tickled with excitement at the data I'm reviewing.  The models tend to struggle Bigly during the change of seasons and none morse than now.  

Today, on average, marks the 1st day of the new LRC pattern.  We won't know when Day 1 is until later on this calendar year but I feel pretty confident that we are experiencing the 1st days of the new pattern.  The cut-off trough in the SW is a big clue, the developing NE PAC/W NAMER ridge is another one, the Trough N/NW of Hawaii is HUGE, and then the lower heights that stretch all the way from Baja of Mexico into the southern GOM states add confidence that an active STJ will be part of the Long Term Long Wave pattern.  Those that live over the southern 1/2 of the Sub must be rather intrigued with this developing pattern.  I'll be honest, I've been watching this region closely bc we haven't seen something as such in a number of years.

Nearly all the models are all showing a similar jet stream pattern for the southern edge of the U.S...2 things that stand out....1) Split Flow over the West. 2) N Caribbean Ridge (not the GOM Ridge we have seen before)....if you fast forward this jet pattern in the winter months when it shifts south...look out...#ActiveSTJ...all day...SW Flow will combine with Tropical moisture.

 

Overnight runs of the models, confirm what I have opined that from the GL's/MW and points East the pattern looks trough-like and cool, while folks farther west/south experience your typical volatile temp pattern.  The combination of both a -EPO/+PNA is a major clue that this will be a common player on the field as we head deeper into the cold season.

 

Let's take a look at the latest JMA weeklies as they pretty much sum up with what I was saying above...

Week 2...nasty looking W NAMER Ridge and lower heights over the southern US...

Temp/Precip...BN temps from the SW/Central/East U.S. and a wet SW/S Plains...

 

 

 

Week 3-4...Blocking up on Top and a beauty of a trough underneath...oh yeah, I almost missed this but check out the East Asian Trough...that is a good piece of info to produce a trough over the Eastern CONUS come NOV.

Temp/Precip...nearly an identical temp pattern and remember this is a LR forecast so it could very well end up being a lot colder provided the blocking ends up being right.  The mean placement of the trough over the CONUS should produce a very active pattern 2nd half of OCT.  Let's see who will be the winners and losers but I suspect there will be a lot of more winners this month.  

 

So far this pattern looks dry for the central Midwest and points west. Pacific ridging and NW flow is never good for us and just being cold fronts and dryness. We shall see how this pattern evolves over the next couple weeks 

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Jayhawker85 said:

So far this pattern looks dry for the central Midwest and points west. Pacific ridging and NW flow is never good for us and just being cold fronts and dryness. We shall see how this pattern evolves over the next couple weeks 

I'm curious to see how far west the trough digs and whether or not phasing occurs before the storms pass us.

[Tom]

3 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Uh oh, someone get @Phil on the phone. One of these guys is in my backyard right now. 

I've been reading there a lot of these showing up and specifically in Indiana where BAMWx is located (Indy).

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Jayhawker85 said:

So far this pattern looks dry for the central Midwest and points west. Pacific ridging and NW flow is never good for us and just being cold fronts and dryness. We shall see how this pattern evolves over the next couple weeks 

The cut-off trough in the SW is a nice sign bc it can end up being stronger in the colder wx months.  Next week it looks like pieces of energy will try and come out.  The EPS is showing this.  Let's see what happens.

 

The GOM Ridge....Gulf of Mexico Ridge

[Andie]

1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

What is the "GOM Ridge"?  

Also, took this pic of the sun yesterday.  That's not a camera illusion.  That's what it really looked like, with the ring around it. 

 

  

Isn’t this called a sun dog?   
 

https://www.thoughtco.com/sundog-overview-4047905

[OmahaSnowFan]

3 hours ago, Jayhawker85 said:

So far this pattern looks dry for the central Midwest and points west. Pacific ridging and NW flow is never good for us and just being cold fronts and dryness. We shall see how this pattern evolves over the next couple weeks 

Remember every pending winter on here is going to be epic.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Andie said:

Isn’t this called a sun dog?   
 

https://www.thoughtco.com/sundog-overview-4047905

A Halo.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Iceresistance]

40 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

My Yearly deficit is 13-15 inches of rain.

[Iceresistance]

But never give up hope, we have a HUGE pattern break coming! I'm expecting just teaser showers for the next several days, but it would moisten up the atmosphere for storms next week!

[Clinton]

Looks like I may have some frost Saturday morning,  getting close to a freeze. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

My Yearly deficit is 13-15 inches of rain.

I had 14 inch deficit  early Aug. Another 1.5 inch behind for August.  But 5.60 in sept now another 17 days dry as a bone. So would estimate  my def to be 14 to 15.5 inches for 2022. My area only really had 2 wet periods  since late may!!  First 5 days of July and  5 inches in 8 days in mid September.  About 135 days of sun sun sun and a few sprinkles  or showers.

[OmahaSnowFan]

NWS dropped the lows tomorrow night 5 degrees. Looks like I will be bringing in the potted plants!

[OmahaSnowFan]

Poor Greenland

[Hawkeye]

The weather has been pretty nice, but gosh dang I'm sick of the endless bone dry pattern.  The latest GFS and Euro show little, if any, rain over the next 1-2 weeks.  It's always the same.

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

It is just crazy to me that I now live somewhere where 80% of LR EPS members can show snow falling by mid-November. Mid-November. We normally have to wait till February (our new holy grail month) to see numbers like that in the PNW. 

It's still sinking in that I don't ever have to worry about only having fleeting chances of snow for an entire winter season. Don't have to worry about getting unexpected onshore flow from the giant 50° body of water nextdoor and having it kill our chances. No worrying about whether the sloppy couple inches you just got was gonna be it for that season. No more elaborate snow dances to try and get the rain to changeover - well, actually, my kids like doing the snow dances so that one might stay around anyways. 

Sorry for the rant. It's just really refreshing to live in a place that sees snow, substantial snow, every year. So much more enjoyable.

So you enjoy the climate up there in Sioux Falls? I’m looking for places to move within the next year or two, hopefully somewhere in the Midwest.

[Tom]

Let it Snow...parts of the U.P. getting their 1st flakes...

[Tom]

The October chill looks to continue for many members and I'm seeing a significant shot of colder air mid month.  Possible Cross Polar Flow?  Wild pattern shaping up for the Week 1-2 period.

[CentralNebWeather]

At 6:45 AM, 39 degrees, feels like 36, with moderate rain falling.  My goodness what a change.  Looks like close to 0.20" so far as the rain moves NW to SE over a fairly narrow area again, same set up as Tuesday morning when I ended with 0.51".  Rain to continue until about lunch time with a good half inch or a little more predicted.  Skies clear this afternoon leading to frost and freeze conditions overnight.  HS football tonight should be nice and crisp.  I am the HS football team statistician, so I get to sit in our nice climate controlled press box.  Last home game was 3 weeks ago and the A/C was on. I'm sure tonight they may turn on the heat. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

The October chill looks to continue for many members and I'm seeing a significant shot of colder air mid month.  Possible Cross Polar Flow?  Wild pattern shaping up for the Week 1-2 period.

Wild and dry..  same thing for months  after months.    Troughs east  and ridges west. Temp Fluctuations   here. And tons of east winds. More than ive ever seen. Unlike much  of eastern usa  east winds do not alway mean precip.  This reoccurring  pattern  of west trough and huge east troughs  is a boring a weather as ive seen my entire  life.

[Clinton]

I have a frost advisory tonight and a freeze advisory not far away.

[westMJim]

We are now one week into October 2022. For the first 6 days of the month the mean at Grand Rapids is 55.1. That is a departure of -1.2 so far the average high has been 70.0 the average high at this point should be 66.4. The average low so far is 40.2 that below the average that is 46.3. So we have had warm days and cool nights so far. The official H/L  yesterday was 71/44 there was a trace of rain fall reported and 15% possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY was 38 and that is the current temperature. I recorded 0.04” of rain fall yesterday. For today the average H/L is 65/45 the record high of 87 was recorded in 2007 and the record low of 25 was set in 1964. Last year the H/L was 68/62 and there was 0.12” of rain fall.

 

[westMJim]

7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I have a frost advisory tonight and a freeze advisory not far away

There is a frost advisory for west Michigan, but the wind and clouds could keep temperatures will above the level that is needed for a frost and it should keep this area above 32 for sure.

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, westMJim said:

There is a frost advisory for west Michigan, but the wind and clouds could keep temperatures will above the level that is needed for a frost and it should keep this area above 32 for sure.

Around here I'm interested to see if there is enough moisture to have frost.  We were bumped up to extreme drought yesterday, the drought has escalated quickly.

[chescowxman]

Warmest day for the next week on tap for today. With above average temps in the low 70's today. A cold front will cross the county late tonight with a slight chance of a brief shower. Following the front winds will shift to the northwest and be a bit gusty tomorrow. Temps by Saturday morning will fall into the low 40's - highs tomorrow will struggle to pass the mid-50's despite a sunny day. By the way - Go Phillies!!!!

The record high for today is 90 degrees set in 1941 that is the 2nd latest 90 degree reading in Chester County history. The latest 90 plus day was on October 16, 1897 when it hit 94 degrees! The record low for today is 27 degrees set in 1923. The daily rainfall record is 1.48" set back in 1965.

[Niko]

Coldest air of the season tanite in Macomb, MI as temps fall into the 20's. Highs remaining only in the 40s today.

 

Meanwhile, here in NYC today the weather is absolutely gorgeous. Temps in the 70s, but much cooler tanite as temps drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s. (especially in northern Queens where I am). Highs tomorrow in the 50s. 

[Hawkeye]

A freeze warning has been issued for much of the region tonight.  We are expecting low 30s, so it's not a hard freeze.  I have to decide how many plants I want to bother covering.  I try to keep them going while hummingbirds are still here.

[Iceresistance]

Argh! I hate it when the Cockroach Death Ridge wipes out the heavy rainfall chances for Texas and Oklahoma!

[Clinton]

This isn't the start I had hoped for with the new LRC setting up.  The ugly ridge in the Pacific NW looks to hang around for awhile, hopefully it will break down in time.  The shots of cold air are encouraging but dryness looks to prevail for the next few weeks.  Still lots of pattern left to evolve so not all is lost yet.

Here is a look at the 15 day QPF anomaly for the EPS and GEFS.

 

 

[Madtown]

https://fb.watch/f-_vFZQVAC/

Had a few flakes here, this is 30min away from here.

[Clinton]

The MJO forecast from the GFS and JMA are encouraging as we move into late October.  There are some signs the MJO will be in the cooler wet phases as we move towards the snowier months.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has Rain/Snow mix for Minnesota, Wisconsin, and parts of Michigan next week!

[Tom]

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

I have a frost advisory tonight and a freeze advisory not far away.

Been a long time coming...I'm sure your ready!  

[Tom]

2 hours ago, chescowxman said:

Warmest day for the next week on tap for today. With above average temps in the low 70's today. A cold front will cross the county late tonight with a slight chance of a brief shower. Following the front winds will shift to the northwest and be a bit gusty tomorrow. Temps by Saturday morning will fall into the low 40's - highs tomorrow will struggle to pass the mid-50's despite a sunny day. By the way - Go Phillies!!!!

The record high for today is 90 degrees set in 1941 that is the 2nd latest 90 degree reading in Chester County history. The latest 90 plus day was on October 16, 1897 when it hit 94 degrees! The record low for today is 27 degrees set in 1923. The daily rainfall record is 1.48" set back in 1965.

PA has some good teams in the sports arena...Phillies and the Eagles are looking good.  Aren't the Eagles undefeated?  It'll be a chilly day for a Wild Card game today in St. Louis.