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October 2022 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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27 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Its possible, but very rare this early up there. 

It has snowed here in October only several times in the past 105 years, with the most being 2 inches in the 1910s. (Don't know exactly when)

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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35 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

It has snowed here in October only several times in the past 105 years, with the most being 2 inches in the 1910s. (Don't know exactly when)

Probably 1910-11. Maybe year after. I know there were a few in there scattered out, but can't tell you which ones offhand.

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A piece of energy that came off the trough that moved through the Rockies the past few days will get cut-off for dayssss on end here in the SW.  It won't be until the next major trough enters the PAC NW/B.C. region that will eventually "kick" it out or phase together.  Models are struggling with the storm system during the 10/11-10/13 timeframe.  I think the spike in the AO/NAO teleconnections has something to do with it.

I'm digging the temp trends here as they are being lowered this weekend into next week due to the trough and precip chances.  Did I just see mid 80's in the grid next week???  Been a Longgg time since the PHX Valley has seen temps like these.  #Autumn

 

image.png

 

A rare temperature spread occurred yesterday in and around N IL/IN...up to a 40 degree temp spread from low to high...you don't see this often in the MW...

Screen Shot 2022-10-05 at 2.08.58 AM.png

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An interesting scenario could be setting up later next week with the dip in the PNA(-) creating a SW Flow pattern for a period of time.  The combination of the cut-off trough in the SW and the energy diving south into the western US, could create a multi-day scenario whereby this pattern will send pieces of energy into the central/southern CONUS.

@OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance @Andie I see the start of a multi-day Severe Wx threat firing up down by your region post 14th as the battle of the seasons shall commence down south.  Tis the Season for the 2nd Season...of Severe Wx that is...that's a beautiful map right there for the 4 corners.

image.gif

 

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Another 0.43" of rain fell overnight. Bringing our 5 day rain total since Saturday to 4.12". Today should be the last day with measurable rain for at least the next week! Temperatures tomorrow and Friday could reach 70 degrees especially in the lower spots of Chester County PA. However, temperatures again fall off sharply starting Saturday with a stretch of below normal temps again through at least next Tuesday.
The record high for today is 94 degrees from 1941. The record low is 28 degrees from 1965. The daily rainfall record is 2.04" set way back in 1902.
image.png.7740adb41c7a22d261b0ffcb55b588d2.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  We analyze only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find on NOAA/NCEI there have been absolutely no post observation computer adjustments to massage the data . All data here represents the actual data validated by the NWS from trained observers, stations and spotters since 1893.  

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Kind of like a broken record in days of old, yesterday was yet another great fall day with once again 100% of possible sunshine the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 72/37 and there was no rain fall. The overnight low here in MBY was 43 and at this time it is 45 with sun and some clouds. For today the average H/L is 66/46 the record high of 85 was set in 1900, 1922 and 1946 the record low of 29 was set n 1965 and 2004. Last year on this date the H/L was 69/58. Today looks to be the last day this week with highs in the low 70’s it looks to turn colder for Friday and Saturday but it looks to warm up next week once again.

 

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Looks like a Niña fall and winter.  
Same here dry and not much hope for sufficient rain this Fall.  Three Niña winters aren’t common   Maybe the ocean will go Neutral.  


We’re at 65* and Sunny for the next 10 days.  
 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

Paging MOTHER NATURE! Did you forget about us????

 

Drought is intensifying here in KC. Trees are already turning color but its the dead color look....

Hopefully next weekend we see some widespread moisture in the Central Plains. 

as much as i want moisture here i need it to hold off a couple days as i have a outdoor event next weekend! I need sun and warmth 🤞🏾

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Omaha NWS has raised the overnight lows for the two cooler nights the next 7 days. Then back above normal.

42 Thursday night and 37 Friday night. I should be able to keep all my plants outdoors.

Today
Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph. 
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 54. Northwest wind 3 to 7 mph. 
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. North wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 11 to 16 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph. 
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. North northeast wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. 
Friday
A 20 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 56. North northeast wind around 7 mph. 
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 37.
Saturday
Areas of frost before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 65.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 47.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 72.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48.
Columbus Day
Sunny, with a high near 73.
Monday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Tuesday
A slight chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.
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6 hours ago, Tom said:

An interesting scenario could be setting up later next week with the dip in the PNA(-) creating a SW Flow pattern for a period of time.  The combination of the cut-off trough in the SW and the energy diving south into the western US, could create a multi-day scenario whereby this pattern will send pieces of energy into the central/southern CONUS.

@OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance @Andie I see the start of a multi-day Severe Wx threat firing up down by your region post 14th as the battle of the seasons shall commence down south.  Tis the Season for the 2nd Season...of Severe Wx that is...that's a beautiful map right there for the 4 corners.

image.gif

 

Gary mentioned this morning in his blog that changes are under way next week! Beginning of the new LRC; god I hope it's a wet one for the Great Plains b/c we all need precip. 

ewscripps.brightspotcdn.png

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Interesting the 12z GFS has the "new LRC" energy Gary mentions becoming part of a western US Rex Block at the end of the run and also showing much of the country drying out at the same time (though some central plains areas receive welcome precip earlier in the run).

gfs_z500_vort_us_65.thumb.png.bff888166aaa7620a2d52ba2f782a3c7.png

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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We’re back to a dry streak of the next 9 days of upper 80’s.    I doubt we will see much Fall color now due here until early Nov.

 

D9C6C73E-F829-4EC9-87C6-DCCC04AC9927.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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Wow, to have color like that!

Beautiful!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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1 hour ago, Madtown said:

Last one, maybe. Colors are just unreal this year. Today is peak in my book. Leaves starting to hit the ground this afternoon.

Looks beautiful!  Enjoy the colors and pretty soon those will be snow covered roads.  Im looking forward to seeing the winter pics and vids this season.

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Tracking the seasons strongest CF yet....temps are to nose dive later this afternoon in Chicago, but before that happens, they will creep up into the low 70's, then crash into the 40's amid strong northerly winds and lake effect rain showers.  I can only imagine what this front could produce in the heart of Winter.  Not to mention, Lake Superior will deliver some snow flakes up north?  @Madtown

image.gif

 

 

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This will be a long post and cover a broad spectrum of the developing OCT wx pattern.  They say, "What happens in OCT, Cycles Back in DEC"...friends, what I'm seeing evolving this month is eye candy for literally all of us on this Sub.  Even though I'm out here in the deserts of Arizona, where it is still Summer in my book, I'm getting tickled with excitement at the data I'm reviewing.  The models tend to struggle Bigly during the change of seasons and none morse than now.  

Today, on average, marks the 1st day of the new LRC pattern.  We won't know when Day 1 is until later on this calendar year but I feel pretty confident that we are experiencing the 1st days of the new pattern.  The cut-off trough in the SW is a big clue, the developing NE PAC/W NAMER ridge is another one, the Trough N/NW of Hawaii is HUGE, and then the lower heights that stretch all the way from Baja of Mexico into the southern GOM states add confidence that an active STJ will be part of the Long Term Long Wave pattern.  Those that live over the southern 1/2 of the Sub must be rather intrigued with this developing pattern.  I'll be honest, I've been watching this region closely bc we haven't seen something as such in a number of years.

Nearly all the models are all showing a similar jet stream pattern for the southern edge of the U.S...2 things that stand out....1) Split Flow over the West. 2) N Caribbean Ridge (not the GOM Ridge we have seen before)....if you fast forward this jet pattern in the winter months when it shifts south...look out...#ActiveSTJ...all day...SW Flow will combine with Tropical moisture.

gfs-ens_uv250_namer_21.png

 

Overnight runs of the models, confirm what I have opined that from the GL's/MW and points East the pattern looks trough-like and cool, while folks farther west/south experience your typical volatile temp pattern.  The combination of both a -EPO/+PNA is a major clue that this will be a common player on the field as we head deeper into the cold season.

1.gif

 

Let's take a look at the latest JMA weeklies as they pretty much sum up with what I was saying above...

Week 2...nasty looking W NAMER Ridge and lower heights over the southern US...

1.png

Temp/Precip...BN temps from the SW/Central/East U.S. and a wet SW/S Plains...

 

Screen Shot 2022-10-06 at 3.49.37 AM.png

 

image.png

 

Week 3-4...Blocking up on Top and a beauty of a trough underneath...oh yeah, I almost missed this but check out the East Asian Trough...that is a good piece of info to produce a trough over the Eastern CONUS come NOV.

2.png

Temp/Precip...nearly an identical temp pattern and remember this is a LR forecast so it could very well end up being a lot colder provided the blocking ends up being right.  The mean placement of the trough over the CONUS should produce a very active pattern 2nd half of OCT.  Let's see who will be the winners and losers but I suspect there will be a lot of more winners this month.  

Screen Shot 2022-10-06 at 3.51.23 AM.png

 

Screen Shot 2022-10-06 at 3.51.29 AM.png

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Beautiful stretch of autumnal weather starting today. Temps will be near normal today and tomorrow before below normal weather for the weekend into next week.
Our record high for today is 94 degrees from 1900. The record low was 28 degrees from 1965. The daily rainfall record is 2.00" set back in 1932.
image.png.c6e2bc78c435698a6d61b77edb1c751f.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  We analyze only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find on NOAA/NCEI there have been absolutely no post observation computer adjustments to massage the data . All data here represents the actual data validated by the NWS from trained observers, stations and spotters since 1893.  

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Tracking the seasons strongest CF yet....temps are to nose dive later this afternoon in Chicago, but before that happens, they will creep up into the low 70's, then crash into the 40's amid strong northerly winds and lake effect rain showers.  I can only imagine what this front could produce in the heart of Winter.  Not to mention, Lake Superior will deliver some snow flakes up north?  @Madtown

image.gif

 

 

NWS Hastings mentioning a strong frontogenetic band setting up over my area tomorrow morning through early afternoon.  Possible wet snow flakes?  Yes Please.

"A few locations within
this heavier band could see over 0.50 inches of rain, with amounts
quickly tapering off north and south of this band. There has been
no change regarding expected precipitation type, which for our
area should be in the form of rain. However, with such an intense
precipitation band, a sounding that is just barely above
freezing, and surface temperatures around 35F in our northwest we
could be very close to mixing in a few wet snow flakes in."

 

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We are now have 5 days in the record books for October 2022 and so far each day has had highs above average. On the other hand the nights have been mostly below average. Here at Grand Rapids the official H/L yesterday was 74/42 there was 66% of possible sunshine and no rain fall. The overnight low here in MBY was 48 and the current temperature here is 50. At GRR the overnight low was 50 and the current temperature there is a reported 55. For today the average H/L is now down to 65/45 the record high of 87 was recorded in 2007 and the record low of 28 was set in 1964 and 2003.  Last year the H/L was 71/55.

 

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I'm enjoying this Fall in eastern Kentucky! There hasn't been a "warm" day in a while. 

It could be a tad wetter, but I like these mornings in the 40's. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 37
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 6/23, 6/25, 6/29, 7/3, 7/4, 7/5, 

Severe storms: 3
Max High: 96 (feels like 107 on June 17)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Uh oh, someone get @Phil on the phone. One of these guys is in my backyard right now. 😝

IMG_5117.JPG

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 37
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 6/23, 6/25, 6/29, 7/3, 7/4, 7/5, 

Severe storms: 3
Max High: 96 (feels like 107 on June 17)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

This will be a long post and cover a broad spectrum of the developing OCT wx pattern.  They say, "What happens in OCT, Cycles Back in DEC"...friends, what I'm seeing evolving this month is eye candy for literally all of us on this Sub.  Even though I'm out here in the deserts of Arizona, where it is still Summer in my book, I'm getting tickled with excitement at the data I'm reviewing.  The models tend to struggle Bigly during the change of seasons and none morse than now.  

Today, on average, marks the 1st day of the new LRC pattern.  We won't know when Day 1 is until later on this calendar year but I feel pretty confident that we are experiencing the 1st days of the new pattern.  The cut-off trough in the SW is a big clue, the developing NE PAC/W NAMER ridge is another one, the Trough N/NW of Hawaii is HUGE, and then the lower heights that stretch all the way from Baja of Mexico into the southern GOM states add confidence that an active STJ will be part of the Long Term Long Wave pattern.  Those that live over the southern 1/2 of the Sub must be rather intrigued with this developing pattern.  I'll be honest, I've been watching this region closely bc we haven't seen something as such in a number of years.

Nearly all the models are all showing a similar jet stream pattern for the southern edge of the U.S...2 things that stand out....1) Split Flow over the West. 2) N Caribbean Ridge (not the GOM Ridge we have seen before)....if you fast forward this jet pattern in the winter months when it shifts south...look out...#ActiveSTJ...all day...SW Flow will combine with Tropical moisture.

gfs-ens_uv250_namer_21.png

 

Overnight runs of the models, confirm what I have opined that from the GL's/MW and points East the pattern looks trough-like and cool, while folks farther west/south experience your typical volatile temp pattern.  The combination of both a -EPO/+PNA is a major clue that this will be a common player on the field as we head deeper into the cold season.

1.gif

 

Let's take a look at the latest JMA weeklies as they pretty much sum up with what I was saying above...

Week 2...nasty looking W NAMER Ridge and lower heights over the southern US...

1.png

Temp/Precip...BN temps from the SW/Central/East U.S. and a wet SW/S Plains...

 

Screen Shot 2022-10-06 at 3.49.37 AM.png

 

image.png

 

Week 3-4...Blocking up on Top and a beauty of a trough underneath...oh yeah, I almost missed this but check out the East Asian Trough...that is a good piece of info to produce a trough over the Eastern CONUS come NOV.

2.png

Temp/Precip...nearly an identical temp pattern and remember this is a LR forecast so it could very well end up being a lot colder provided the blocking ends up being right.  The mean placement of the trough over the CONUS should produce a very active pattern 2nd half of OCT.  Let's see who will be the winners and losers but I suspect there will be a lot of more winners this month.  

Screen Shot 2022-10-06 at 3.51.23 AM.png

 

Screen Shot 2022-10-06 at 3.51.29 AM.png

So far this pattern looks dry for the central Midwest and points west. Pacific ridging and NW flow is never good for us and just being cold fronts and dryness. We shall see how this pattern evolves over the next couple weeks 

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1 hour ago, Jayhawker85 said:

So far this pattern looks dry for the central Midwest and points west. Pacific ridging and NW flow is never good for us and just being cold fronts and dryness. We shall see how this pattern evolves over the next couple weeks 

I'm curious to see how far west the trough digs and whether or not phasing occurs before the storms pass us.

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2 hours ago, Jayhawker85 said:

So far this pattern looks dry for the central Midwest and points west. Pacific ridging and NW flow is never good for us and just being cold fronts and dryness. We shall see how this pattern evolves over the next couple weeks 

The cut-off trough in the SW is a nice sign bc it can end up being stronger in the colder wx months.  Next week it looks like pieces of energy will try and come out.  The EPS is showing this.  Let's see what happens.

 

The GOM Ridge....Gulf of Mexico Ridge

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1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

What is the "GOM Ridge"?  

Also, took this pic of the sun yesterday.  That's not a camera illusion.  That's what it really looked like, with the ring around it. 

 

  image.thumb.jpeg.1d73d8f9f8c0c53dff127fe545238856.jpeg

Isn’t this called a sun dog?   
 

https://www.thoughtco.com/sundog-overview-4047905

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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