October 2022 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I have a frost advisory tonight and a freeze advisory not far away

There is a frost advisory for west Michigan, but the wind and clouds could keep temperatures will above the level that is needed for a frost and it should keep this area above 32 for sure.

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, westMJim said:

There is a frost advisory for west Michigan, but the wind and clouds could keep temperatures will above the level that is needed for a frost and it should keep this area above 32 for sure.

Around here I'm interested to see if there is enough moisture to have frost.  We were bumped up to extreme drought yesterday, the drought has escalated quickly.

[hawkstwelve]

First official freeze of the season with the temperature hitting 30. 

Overnight Euro run is holding on to the trough for both the 12th and the one near the end of the run. Those might help FSD offset the +8 departure they are running on the month so far. 

[chescowxman]

Warmest day for the next week on tap for today. With above average temps in the low 70's today. A cold front will cross the county late tonight with a slight chance of a brief shower. Following the front winds will shift to the northwest and be a bit gusty tomorrow. Temps by Saturday morning will fall into the low 40's - highs tomorrow will struggle to pass the mid-50's despite a sunny day. By the way - Go Phillies!!!!

The record high for today is 90 degrees set in 1941 that is the 2nd latest 90 degree reading in Chester County history. The latest 90 plus day was on October 16, 1897 when it hit 94 degrees! The record low for today is 27 degrees set in 1923. The daily rainfall record is 1.48" set back in 1965.

[Niko]

Coldest air of the season tanite in Macomb, MI as temps fall into the 20's. Highs remaining only in the 40s today.

 

Meanwhile, here in NYC today the weather is absolutely gorgeous. Temps in the 70s, but much cooler tanite as temps drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s. (especially in northern Queens where I am). Highs tomorrow in the 50s. 

[Hawkeye]

A freeze warning has been issued for much of the region tonight.  We are expecting low 30s, so it's not a hard freeze.  I have to decide how many plants I want to bother covering.  I try to keep them going while hummingbirds are still here.

[Iceresistance]

Argh! I hate it when the Cockroach Death Ridge wipes out the heavy rainfall chances for Texas and Oklahoma!

[Clinton]

This isn't the start I had hoped for with the new LRC setting up.  The ugly ridge in the Pacific NW looks to hang around for awhile, hopefully it will break down in time.  The shots of cold air are encouraging but dryness looks to prevail for the next few weeks.  Still lots of pattern left to evolve so not all is lost yet.

Here is a look at the 15 day QPF anomaly for the EPS and GEFS.

 

 

[Madtown]

https://fb.watch/f-_vFZQVAC/

Had a few flakes here, this is 30min away from here.

[Clinton]

The MJO forecast from the GFS and JMA are encouraging as we move into late October.  There are some signs the MJO will be in the cooler wet phases as we move towards the snowier months.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has Rain/Snow mix for Minnesota, Wisconsin, and parts of Michigan next week!

[Tom]

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

I have a frost advisory tonight and a freeze advisory not far away.

Been a long time coming...I'm sure your ready!  

[Tom]

2 hours ago, chescowxman said:

Warmest day for the next week on tap for today. With above average temps in the low 70's today. A cold front will cross the county late tonight with a slight chance of a brief shower. Following the front winds will shift to the northwest and be a bit gusty tomorrow. Temps by Saturday morning will fall into the low 40's - highs tomorrow will struggle to pass the mid-50's despite a sunny day. By the way - Go Phillies!!!!

The record high for today is 90 degrees set in 1941 that is the 2nd latest 90 degree reading in Chester County history. The latest 90 plus day was on October 16, 1897 when it hit 94 degrees! The record low for today is 27 degrees set in 1923. The daily rainfall record is 1.48" set back in 1965.

PA has some good teams in the sports arena...Phillies and the Eagles are looking good.  Aren't the Eagles undefeated?  It'll be a chilly day for a Wild Card game today in St. Louis.

[Clinton]

16 minutes ago, Tom said:

Been a long time coming...I'm sure your ready!  

Can't wait and I will likely have to turn on the heat for the first time tomorrow morning.   12z GFS brings a little moisture to parts of MO and Iowa next Tuesday night and another shot of cold.

[Madtown]

More flakes....moderate snowshowers...giddy up!

[Hawkeye]

This morning's GFS and Euro are showing a potential wet front and big storm up along the Canada border.  The Euro has a big snow event, with a snow mix down into northern Iowa.  The Euro is slower with the front, so it's much wetter here.  I sure hope it's correct.

[bud2380]

17 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The weather has been pretty nice, but gosh dang I'm sick of the endless bone dry pattern.  The latest GFS and Euro show little, if any, rain over the next 1-2 weeks.  It's always the same.

Sadly, I see no reason to believe the winter will be different.  

[hawkstwelve]

Some nice snow totals being shown in N Minnesota and NE NoDak on the 12z Euro about a week from now. Even shows an inch falling here. FSD does average 1.4 inches of snow in October so wouldn't be too outlandish. 

[Iceresistance]

Finally! It's raining outside!

[Niko]

My first freeze warning of the season. Temps will bottom out in the upper 20s.

[Tom]

It appears that today will mark the 1st day of an official Freeze for many across our Sub and the opening days of the new LRC pattern.  Back home, many local stations are reporting temps in the low/mid 30's and outside the urban heat island plenty of upper 20's.  Kinda wish I was back home for this but there will be more of these temps to come later the following weekend and extended.

 

A couple days ago, I experienced a cell that erupted right near my place and dumped a quick .43" of precip and also some gusty winds.  It was nice to hear rumbles of thunder and the smells of the rains that fell.  The cut-off trough in the SW is a big deal as the weather pattern develops in the early stages of the LRC.  The valley will prob see more storms later this afternoon/evening.  Temps locally peaked in the upper 80's and I can tell you that the air has a different feel to it now that we have turned the corner here in the Valley of the Sun.  The mornings especially are a lot cooler and comfy. While the afternoons are still a bit Hot near 90F, it is much more tolerable and by the time we get close to sunset it is perfection.

 

 

[Tom]

@OttumwaSnomow @Clinton ..The 1st wave will eject out of the SW and deliver some moisture next week as an interesting system blows up over the GL's next weekend.

0z EPS indicating a good opportunity for moisture in this Split Flow pattern aloft for the MW/GL's/S Plains region...

 

 

The pattern next weekend could be downright cold over much of the Upper MW/GL's/MW and will continue into the following week before I see this colder pattern breaking down.  By that time, I think some of you will be yearning for some delightful Indian Summer weather and there are signs that post 20th it will be making an appearance for those out west first.  That will also introduce opportunities for more moisture over the heartland during the later half of OCT.

 

[westMJim]

With an official high of 50 yesterday was the coolest high since April 27^th the low yesterday was 36. There was no rain fall and a reported 15% of possible sunshine. There has only been officially a trace of rain fall so far this month. As expected, the winds shifted to out of the west and that brought in some clouds and warmer temperatures off the lake. Thus the overnight low here in MBY stopped at 32 and it looks like it did get down to at least 31 at GRR. At the current time it is cloudy and 39 here but to the west the  last reported reading was up to 49 at Muskegon.  For today the average HL is now down to 64/45 the record high of 88 was in the warm October of 2007 and the record low of 28 was set in 1896 and again in 1989.

 

[hawkstwelve]

My station, which we are right on the furthest edge of town so might be a little less prone to UHI effects, is reading a frigid 23 degrees this morning. FSD is reporting a low of 30. Either way you slice it it's cold out there!

[Clinton]

Good frost morning, its great to see everything whitened this morning and it has a Winter feel.   Temps here dropped into the low 30s this morning.   It's currently 33 headed into the low 60s today.  Great looking weekend ahead.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

@OttumwaSnomow @Clinton ..The 1st wave will eject out of the SW and deliver some moisture next week as an interesting system blows up over the GL's next weekend.

0z EPS indicating a good opportunity for moisture in this Split Flow pattern aloft for the MW/GL's/S Plains region...

 

 

The pattern next weekend could be downright cold over much of the Upper MW/GL's/MW and will continue into the following week before I see this colder pattern breaking down.  By that time, I think some of you will be yearning for some delightful Indian Summer weather and there are signs that post 20th it will be making an appearance for those out west first.  That will also introduce opportunities for more moisture over the heartland during the later half of OCT.

 

The 0z Euro looks great with 1in+ amounts over mby.  We need the rain bad, lets break the ice and change our fortunes around here!

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

@OttumwaSnomow @Clinton ..The 1st wave will eject out of the SW and deliver some moisture next week as an interesting system blows up over the GL's next weekend.

0z EPS indicating a good opportunity for moisture in this Split Flow pattern aloft for the MW/GL's/S Plains region...

 

 

The pattern next weekend could be downright cold over much of the Upper MW/GL's/MW and will continue into the following week before I see this colder pattern breaking down.  By that time, I think some of you will be yearning for some delightful Indian Summer weather and there are signs that post 20th it will be making an appearance for those out west first.  That will also introduce opportunities for more moisture over the heartland during the later half of OCT.

 

Boy the pattern looks cold and exciting for those around the Lakes and Minnesota in the long range (days 8-10.)  For KC it looks cold and dry but this could really deliver for the Lakes Region.

 

[Clinton]

To follow up more on Toms post this morning a break down in that ugly ridge in the Pacific NW is showing up for the last 10 days or so of Oct.  This gives me a little hope after the down right ugly runs from the GEFS Ext and Euro Weeklies. 

[chescowxman]

A beautiful autumnal weekend on the way. Today and tomorrow will struggle to escape the 50's in many spots. Tonight we run a risk in some of the lower valley locations in Chester County to see our first frost.

Our record high for today is 85 degrees set back in 1916. The record low is 28 degrees in 1904. The daily rainfall record is 2.43" set back in 1903.

[OmahaSnowFan]

27.5 IMBY last night, but not a killing freeze, as all the stuff I leave outside is still fine.

Crazy temperature rise too as soon as the sun rose.

755a- 28.2

855a- 37.9 (+9.7)

955a- 50.0 (+12.1)

It’s now 57.6 already so +30.1 degrees in 3.5 hours!

Still no rain. Last measurable rain here was .41” on 9/23, 15 days ago.

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Hawkeye]

We got our freeze this morning.  The airport hit 28º and it was likely about 30º here in town.  A few of the sensitive plants I did not cover are a bit toasted.  Everything I covered looks fine.

It appears yesterday morning's GFS and Euro runs, showing a slower and wetter front later next week, may have been a one-run wonder.  The GFS, GDPS, and UK are now showing a much faster front that produces little, if any, rain here, and there is nothing in sight after that.  God I hate long, dry patterns.  This cannot end soon enough.  

[Mr Marine Layer]

Here's the forecast

@OmahaSnowFan should find something problematic about it and any NOAA forecast anywhere else through this weekend. It's also been in all the forecasts for quite a few days now.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Could be 3+ weeks with no moisture by next weekend.

[Iceresistance]

The Stupid Cockroach Death Ridge is refusing to accept its fate!  

[Mr Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Could be 3+ weeks with no moisture by next weekend.

California could actually get something. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Got the cruiser cleaned up on this fine crisp 59 degree day! It feels like Halloween is around the corner.

Some dummy smashed into one of the vacuum machines with their car.

[Timmy Supercell]

I'll clean up my signature soon to make way for 22-23 winter, and just have some highlight info from 2022 on there.

[Andie]

Wow !   Heat of the day and 77*.  
Bright and sunny. Perfection.

[Tom]

POP up storm delivering some good rain…

 

 

[Clinton]

Both the GFS and Euro Control showing the ridge in the NW breaking down and storms coming into the west coast.  Long ways out I know but both models showing similar solutions.   We have to hope or what else are we going to do lol.

[james1976]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Both the GFS and Euro Control showing the ridge in the NW breaking down and storms coming into the west coast.  Long ways out I know but both models showing similar solutions.   We have to hope or what else are we going to do lol.

12z had something similar as well but yes we gotta hope!

[westMJim]

With the official low of 30 yesterday that ended the growing season for the summer of 2022. The was the earliest day for the 1st low of 30 or less since 2009. The official high yesterday was 53. There was no rain fall and 34% of possible sunshine. The low overnight both here in MBY and at GRR was 36. At the current time it is 36 and clear here in my yard. I was in Muskegon late last night and when I left there the temperature was 57, by the time I got home (26 miles away) it was 39 so it just shows how much the lake can warm up the lake shore at times in the fall and winter season. Also of note it that the fall color is ahead of where it has been in many of the recent past falls.

[hawkstwelve]

00z Euro is showing a trough dropping down around the 16th that has some serious bite to it. Highs only in the low 40s, which would be almost 20 degrees below normal. Brrr.

[hawkstwelve]

Pretty strong zonal jet across the CONUS at the end of the 06z GFS. Might help bring some more precip to areas that need it.

[Tom]

My local wx station reported 0.30” of rain yesterday.  I was one of the lucky locals that was on the receiving end of the storms that rolled in East off of the mountains.

It is a nice and cool morning…daylight is emerging as I welcome in this new day.

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Pretty strong zonal jet across the CONUS at the end of the 06z GFS. Might help bring some more precip to areas that need it.

This is a great pattern setting up with extensive blocking that nearly every global model is now strongly agreeing on for the later half of OCT.  Let's see if you can score your first flakes of the season from one of these big troughs that roll on through.  

 

[Tom]

This is such a beautiful blocking pattern setting up and one that I strongly believe will cycle back in the colder months.  That west-based Greenland block that develops earlier in this run is a thing of beauty for our Sub to benefit from it's placement and couple that with the W NAMER ridge all of this has my attn.  The great thing about where the pattern could be heading to close out OCT is the relaxation of the real colder weather as both the PNA/EPO relax but the high lat blocking continues as the storm track begins to hit the west coast and wetter systems will be developing over the heartland.

[Madtown]

[Niko]

Back in Michigan. Came home late last night.

Here are some pics:

PIC1: Dinnertime. Great view of the water.

PIC2: This is a creamy style dessert w syrup on the bottom and a crust on the top. Delicious! (Galaktopoureko)

PIC3: Greek cheese pie w/ a delicious crust on the top. Best to eat it warm or very warm. "Oasis Cafe"

PIC4: Beautiful Autumn  day in Time Square. Temps were in the upper 50's.

PIC5: Not a cloud to be found under deep blue skies.

PIC6: Action movie being filmed.