October 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

16 minutes ago, Tom said:

Been a long time coming...I'm sure your ready!  

Can't wait and I will likely have to turn on the heat for the first time tomorrow morning.   12z GFS brings a little moisture to parts of MO and Iowa next Tuesday night and another shot of cold.

[Madtown]

More flakes....moderate snowshowers...giddy up!

[Hawkeye]

This morning's GFS and Euro are showing a potential wet front and big storm up along the Canada border.  The Euro has a big snow event, with a snow mix down into northern Iowa.  The Euro is slower with the front, so it's much wetter here.  I sure hope it's correct.

[bud2380]

17 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The weather has been pretty nice, but gosh dang I'm sick of the endless bone dry pattern.  The latest GFS and Euro show little, if any, rain over the next 1-2 weeks.  It's always the same.

Sadly, I see no reason to believe the winter will be different.  

[Iceresistance]

Finally! It's raining outside!

[Niko]

My first freeze warning of the season. Temps will bottom out in the upper 20s.

[Tom]

It appears that today will mark the 1st day of an official Freeze for many across our Sub and the opening days of the new LRC pattern.  Back home, many local stations are reporting temps in the low/mid 30's and outside the urban heat island plenty of upper 20's.  Kinda wish I was back home for this but there will be more of these temps to come later the following weekend and extended.

 

A couple days ago, I experienced a cell that erupted right near my place and dumped a quick .43" of precip and also some gusty winds.  It was nice to hear rumbles of thunder and the smells of the rains that fell.  The cut-off trough in the SW is a big deal as the weather pattern develops in the early stages of the LRC.  The valley will prob see more storms later this afternoon/evening.  Temps locally peaked in the upper 80's and I can tell you that the air has a different feel to it now that we have turned the corner here in the Valley of the Sun.  The mornings especially are a lot cooler and comfy. While the afternoons are still a bit Hot near 90F, it is much more tolerable and by the time we get close to sunset it is perfection.

 

 

[Tom]

@OttumwaSnomow @Clinton ..The 1st wave will eject out of the SW and deliver some moisture next week as an interesting system blows up over the GL's next weekend.

0z EPS indicating a good opportunity for moisture in this Split Flow pattern aloft for the MW/GL's/S Plains region...

 

 

The pattern next weekend could be downright cold over much of the Upper MW/GL's/MW and will continue into the following week before I see this colder pattern breaking down.  By that time, I think some of you will be yearning for some delightful Indian Summer weather and there are signs that post 20th it will be making an appearance for those out west first.  That will also introduce opportunities for more moisture over the heartland during the later half of OCT.

 

[westMJim]

With an official high of 50 yesterday was the coolest high since April 27^th the low yesterday was 36. There was no rain fall and a reported 15% of possible sunshine. There has only been officially a trace of rain fall so far this month. As expected, the winds shifted to out of the west and that brought in some clouds and warmer temperatures off the lake. Thus the overnight low here in MBY stopped at 32 and it looks like it did get down to at least 31 at GRR. At the current time it is cloudy and 39 here but to the west the  last reported reading was up to 49 at Muskegon.  For today the average HL is now down to 64/45 the record high of 88 was in the warm October of 2007 and the record low of 28 was set in 1896 and again in 1989.

 

[Clinton]

Good frost morning, its great to see everything whitened this morning and it has a Winter feel.   Temps here dropped into the low 30s this morning.   It's currently 33 headed into the low 60s today.  Great looking weekend ahead.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

@OttumwaSnomow @Clinton ..The 1st wave will eject out of the SW and deliver some moisture next week as an interesting system blows up over the GL's next weekend.

0z EPS indicating a good opportunity for moisture in this Split Flow pattern aloft for the MW/GL's/S Plains region...

 

 

The pattern next weekend could be downright cold over much of the Upper MW/GL's/MW and will continue into the following week before I see this colder pattern breaking down.  By that time, I think some of you will be yearning for some delightful Indian Summer weather and there are signs that post 20th it will be making an appearance for those out west first.  That will also introduce opportunities for more moisture over the heartland during the later half of OCT.

 

The 0z Euro looks great with 1in+ amounts over mby.  We need the rain bad, lets break the ice and change our fortunes around here!

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

@OttumwaSnomow @Clinton ..The 1st wave will eject out of the SW and deliver some moisture next week as an interesting system blows up over the GL's next weekend.

0z EPS indicating a good opportunity for moisture in this Split Flow pattern aloft for the MW/GL's/S Plains region...

 

 

The pattern next weekend could be downright cold over much of the Upper MW/GL's/MW and will continue into the following week before I see this colder pattern breaking down.  By that time, I think some of you will be yearning for some delightful Indian Summer weather and there are signs that post 20th it will be making an appearance for those out west first.  That will also introduce opportunities for more moisture over the heartland during the later half of OCT.

 

Boy the pattern looks cold and exciting for those around the Lakes and Minnesota in the long range (days 8-10.)  For KC it looks cold and dry but this could really deliver for the Lakes Region.

 

[Clinton]

To follow up more on Toms post this morning a break down in that ugly ridge in the Pacific NW is showing up for the last 10 days or so of Oct.  This gives me a little hope after the down right ugly runs from the GEFS Ext and Euro Weeklies. 

[chescowxman]

A beautiful autumnal weekend on the way. Today and tomorrow will struggle to escape the 50's in many spots. Tonight we run a risk in some of the lower valley locations in Chester County to see our first frost.

Our record high for today is 85 degrees set back in 1916. The record low is 28 degrees in 1904. The daily rainfall record is 2.43" set back in 1903.

[OmahaSnowFan]

27.5 IMBY last night, but not a killing freeze, as all the stuff I leave outside is still fine.

Crazy temperature rise too as soon as the sun rose.

755a- 28.2

855a- 37.9 (+9.7)

955a- 50.0 (+12.1)

It’s now 57.6 already so +30.1 degrees in 3.5 hours!

Still no rain. Last measurable rain here was .41” on 9/23, 15 days ago.

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Hawkeye]

We got our freeze this morning.  The airport hit 28º and it was likely about 30º here in town.  A few of the sensitive plants I did not cover are a bit toasted.  Everything I covered looks fine.

It appears yesterday morning's GFS and Euro runs, showing a slower and wetter front later next week, may have been a one-run wonder.  The GFS, GDPS, and UK are now showing a much faster front that produces little, if any, rain here, and there is nothing in sight after that.  God I hate long, dry patterns.  This cannot end soon enough.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

Here's the forecast

@OmahaSnowFan should find something problematic about it and any NOAA forecast anywhere else through this weekend. It's also been in all the forecasts for quite a few days now.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Could be 3+ weeks with no moisture by next weekend.

[Iceresistance]

The Stupid Cockroach Death Ridge is refusing to accept its fate!  

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Could be 3+ weeks with no moisture by next weekend.

California could actually get something. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Got the cruiser cleaned up on this fine crisp 59 degree day! It feels like Halloween is around the corner.

Some dummy smashed into one of the vacuum machines with their car.

[Timmy Supercell]

I'll clean up my signature soon to make way for 22-23 winter, and just have some highlight info from 2022 on there.

[Andie]

Wow !   Heat of the day and 77*.  
Bright and sunny. Perfection.

[Tom]

POP up storm delivering some good rain…

 

 

[Clinton]

Both the GFS and Euro Control showing the ridge in the NW breaking down and storms coming into the west coast.  Long ways out I know but both models showing similar solutions.   We have to hope or what else are we going to do lol.

[james1976]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Both the GFS and Euro Control showing the ridge in the NW breaking down and storms coming into the west coast.  Long ways out I know but both models showing similar solutions.   We have to hope or what else are we going to do lol.

12z had something similar as well but yes we gotta hope!

[westMJim]

With the official low of 30 yesterday that ended the growing season for the summer of 2022. The was the earliest day for the 1st low of 30 or less since 2009. The official high yesterday was 53. There was no rain fall and 34% of possible sunshine. The low overnight both here in MBY and at GRR was 36. At the current time it is 36 and clear here in my yard. I was in Muskegon late last night and when I left there the temperature was 57, by the time I got home (26 miles away) it was 39 so it just shows how much the lake can warm up the lake shore at times in the fall and winter season. Also of note it that the fall color is ahead of where it has been in many of the recent past falls.

[Tom]

My local wx station reported 0.30” of rain yesterday.  I was one of the lucky locals that was on the receiving end of the storms that rolled in East off of the mountains.

It is a nice and cool morning…daylight is emerging as I welcome in this new day.

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Pretty strong zonal jet across the CONUS at the end of the 06z GFS. Might help bring some more precip to areas that need it.

This is a great pattern setting up with extensive blocking that nearly every global model is now strongly agreeing on for the later half of OCT.  Let's see if you can score your first flakes of the season from one of these big troughs that roll on through.  

 

[Tom]

This is such a beautiful blocking pattern setting up and one that I strongly believe will cycle back in the colder months.  That west-based Greenland block that develops earlier in this run is a thing of beauty for our Sub to benefit from it's placement and couple that with the W NAMER ridge all of this has my attn.  The great thing about where the pattern could be heading to close out OCT is the relaxation of the real colder weather as both the PNA/EPO relax but the high lat blocking continues as the storm track begins to hit the west coast and wetter systems will be developing over the heartland.

[Madtown]

[Niko]

Back in Michigan. Came home late last night.

Here are some pics:

PIC1: Dinnertime. Great view of the water.

PIC2: This is a creamy style dessert w syrup on the bottom and a crust on the top. Delicious! (Galaktopoureko)

PIC3: Greek cheese pie w/ a delicious crust on the top. Best to eat it warm or very warm. "Oasis Cafe"

PIC4: Beautiful Autumn  day in Time Square. Temps were in the upper 50's.

PIC5: Not a cloud to be found under deep blue skies.

PIC6: Action movie being filmed.

[Timmy Supercell]

Ashland got down to 30 this morning. First freeze of the new cold season!

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Ashland got down to 30 this morning. First freeze of the new cold season!

My lowest temperature was 43°F the night before!

[Timmy Supercell]

Last year was a later start for freezing lows. Looks like our first one was in Nov 2021, however there was probably a frost on 10/27 (33 that day). 

I would say October 9 is a tad sooner than established average first freeze, still. 

[snowstorm83]

Wouldn't be surprised to see LNK make a run for 90 on Tuesday despite the current forecast being only 84. Seems like the type of day to overperform. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Lows tanked last night to 35.2, well below forecast of 42. We still had the projector out though watching football/baseball with the fire pit AND fire table going for warmth

Right now sitting out on the patio with 76 degrees, full sunshine, and a nice breeze.

80s (10-15 degrees above average) next couple of days before it cools back down…. to normal.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Iceresistance]

6 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

This is the definition of the Cockroach Death Ridge

[snowstorm83]

Late October through 12/31 isn't a particularly wet time of the year either, so that number probably won't be moving significantly. Norfolk also only received 4.1" of snow last winter (still can't get over that lol). Before last year, 7-10" seemed to be the floor in eastern Nebraska. 

[Tom]

Happy Monday and Happy Columbus Day!  Even though today is a bank holiday, I will be hard at work but before then we have a lot of exciting weather to touch on!  Boy, what a beauty of a Block is to Blossom near Greenland.  I have opined that a west-based Greenland Block is a thing of beauty for our Sub and that is exactly what shall transpire.

My goodness, 0z Euro trends are indicative of what wx enthusiasts like myself have been yearning to see in many years.  I don't recall blocking patterns showing up like this in the models in a number of years.  Yes please!  This will undoubtedly be a Signature part of the LRC and a quite fascinating scenario in the winter months.  #NorthAmericanVortex

 

 

[Tom]

Stepped out a few minutes ago to capture the remnants of the Harvest Full Moon (10/9) and Jupiter on 10-10-22…my night exposure kinda skewed from the bright Moon.

[westMJim]

I got some of my pre winter yard work done yesterday. It was a rather nice October day with the official H/L at Grand Rapids of 65/36. There was a reported trace of rain fall and 54% of possible sunshine. The leaves on the trees in this area have good color and it is earlier than in several of the past fall seasons. The overnight low so far this morning here in MBY has been 39 the lowest reading so far at GRR looks to be 40.  For today the average H/L is now down to 63/44 that is down 20° from the July averages. The record high for today is 85 set in 1949. Last year the H/L was 76/64 that 64 is the record warmest minimum for the date. There is a chance that tomorrow could be the last day of 70 or better this year. We shall see.

 

[Minny_Weather]

11 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

Norfolk also only received 4.1" of snow last winter

I officially don't hate them anymore.

[chescowxman]

Another morning with some 30's in many lower spots around the county. In East Nantmeal we only made it down to 41.0....Beautiful start to the week but still a bit chilly for early October. Showers look to arrive toward Thursday morning. Should clear out and be sunny and cool for Phillies at the bank next weekend!

The record high for today is 88 degrees in 1939. The record low is 24 degrees in 1929. The daily rainfall record is 3.19" set way back in 1894.

[james1976]

I love seeing this from MPX AFD. Mentioning much colder air and possible snowflakes:

The large-scale pattern behind Tuesday`s front will undergo a
significant shift for the remainder of the week, with deep troughing
and associated cooler weather settling deep into the eastern half of
the country. Prolonged cyclonic flow over the Upper Midwest through
the week will favor a few light showers/sprinkles at
times...possibly even mixed with a few flakes especially north of
the Twin Cities. High temperatures by Thursday will struggle to make
it out of the 40s with overnight temperatures dropping below
freezing. This will be followed by slight moderation in temperatures
by the end of the week before another reinforcing shot of cold air
moves in Sunday and Monday.

[Clinton]

Another nice weather week with some rain possible.  Rainfall amounts near a 1/2 in possible.

[Tom]

Interesting short read of how the Ancients calculated time that in turn created our calendar. #cycles

[jaster220]

On 10/9/2022 at 8:23 AM, westMJim said:

With the official low of 30 yesterday that ended the growing season for the summer of 2022. The was the earliest day for the 1st low of 30 or less since 2009. The official high yesterday was 53. There was no rain fall and 34% of possible sunshine. The low overnight both here in MBY and at GRR was 36. At the current time it is 36 and clear here in my yard. I was in Muskegon late last night and when I left there the temperature was 57, by the time I got home (26 miles away) it was 39 so it just shows how much the lake can warm up the lake shore at times in the fall and winter season. Also of note it that the fall color is ahead of where it has been in many of the recent past falls.

Yeah, I noticed that as well. In fact, here in SEMI there's some real eye-popping color for so early (1st wk of Oct). In Wayne, we had that cold morning a week ago, but only upper 30's. Saturday morning's 32F will only help the cause of early colors!