October 2022 Observations and Discussion

[OmahaSnowFan]

79 degrees with 23% RH. Rain chances dropped to 30% now for tomorrow evening. If we don’t luck out tomorrow, then it looks like another week with no moisture.

[Iceresistance]

Got .2 inches of rain with more coming!

[OmahaSnowFan]

384 hours of basically nothing.

[Anti Marine Layer]

17 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

384 hours of basically nothing.

CA's drought is expanding. 

[OKwx2k4]

9 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

To give you an idea of how bad the GFS is, it is significantly more accurate at 14 days out for KC than it is at 10 days out, and its warm bias is therefore worse at 10 days than at 14.   At 10 days out the GFS averages 7.5 degrees too warm for KC.  At 14 days out, it averages 2.4 degrees too warm.  

I thought maybe that could be because at 14 days out, the GFS is actually off by more, but tends to be off to the low side and high side more equally.  That would skew the numbers, making it look like the 14-day is more accurate when it's really off by more degrees, but the highs and lows average out better.  But at 14 days the GFS is off by an average of 12 degrees (whether too high or too low) and at 10 days it's off by an average of 11.2 degrees.  

Conclusion, the GFS is off by roughly the same amount at 10 and 14 days, but its warm bias is significantly worse at 10 days.  You would think it would be more accurate at a shorter range. 

That's pretty darn bad.  

Well stated. Its become so bad that we "hedge" its biases. Lol.

[OKwx2k4]

25 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

CA's drought is expanding. 

That's no good. It's just a no-win out there.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Does anyone here in the Midwest / Plains think we are currently in a pattern that is reminiscent of the 1930's Dust Bowl era in terms of the current drought? I know this drought hasn't been going on out here as long it has been in the Southwest and California, but I am just curious what people on this forum from this area think about the current pattern.

[Clinton]

Waking up to the sweet sound of rain falling this morning.  Not a large amount expected today and tonight but anything is appreciated. 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Waking up to the sweet sound of rain falling this morning.  Not a large amount expected today and tonight but anything is appreciated. 

I was thinking about you a few minutes ago when I saw the radar showing that 1st initial wave coming up from the south.  Hope you score some storms when the CF blasts through later tomorrow am.  You'll be riding the southern edge where these storms fire up.  

Second Season of Severe Wx kicks off in a relatively benign way...however, that may not be the case for the Sun-Mon period for TX/OK folks and you'll say goodbye to the CockRoach Ridge! @Iceresistance @Andie

 

 

 

 

[Andie]

We’re ready for the moisture.  
it’s been so dry you feel like you should sweep the dust off the roof.  
It’s just been so bad many of us are worried about some of the trees that haven’t established themselves.  I’ve already begun deep watering as you can see them struggle.  

[chescowxman]

Yesterday was the 8th below normal temperature day over the 1st 10 days of the month of October here in Chester County PA. If you think this has been an unusually chilly start you are correct. This is the coldest 1st 10 days in October in 34 years dating back to 1988. The average temp has been 51.9 - this is the 13th chilliest start to October since NWS Coop records began in 1894. The chilliest was the 48.5 from 1935 - followed by the 48.9 in 1974.

The record high for today is 87 degrees set in 1904. The record low is 23 degrees from 1929. Record daily rainfall is the 1.37" that fell today in 1902.

[westMJim]

Yesterday was yet another great early October day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 67/36 there was no rain fall and so far, there has only been a trace the month. There was 89% of possible sunshine. The overnight low and current temperature here in MBY is 39. The official low at GRR is a warmer 43 and their current temperature is 43. For today the average H/L is 63/44 the record high of 85 was set in 1928 and the record low of 25 was set in 1906. Last year the H/L was 80/63 there was 0.70” of rain fall. That high of 80 was the last day of 80 or better in 2021. There was a total of 84 days of 80 or better in 2021. This year there will be a total of 85 days of 80 or better. The average number of days is 71 the most is 96 in 2012 and the least is 36 in 1924. There is a chance that today could be the last day of 70 or better in 2022. If today makes it to 70 or better it will be the 130 day this year the average number of days of 70 or better at Grand Rapids is 133 the record is 163 in 1900 and the least is 102 in 1907. Last year there were 150.

 

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

I was thinking about you a few minutes ago when I saw the radar showing that 1st initial wave coming up from the south.  Hope you score some storms when the CF blasts through later tomorrow am.  You'll be riding the southern edge where these storms fire up.  

Second Season of Severe Wx kicks off in a relatively benign way...however, that may not be the case for the Sun-Mon period for TX/OK folks and you'll say goodbye to the CockRoach Ridge! @Iceresistance @Andie

 

 

 

 

Hope we score more tonight.  I'm at work so I don't know how much I received but Warrensburg got a nice shower this morning. 

[snowstorm83]

10 hours ago, Dan the Weatherman said:

Does anyone here in the Midwest / Plains think we are currently in a pattern that is reminiscent of the 1930's Dust Bowl era in terms of the current drought? I know this drought hasn't been going on out here as long it has been in the Southwest and California, but I am just curious what people on this forum from this area think about the current pattern.

Dust Bowl drought was much longer and more severe. 1934 and 1936 were worse than 2012, and 2012 was worse than this year. But if next year doesn't change, then things will be in realllly bad shape. Looking at Lincoln during the 1930s decade, the average annual precip was only 23.26" (compared to a usual around 29") and 4 years were under 20". 

[Tom]

The term "Indian Summer" has different meanings for different areas of our Nation...

https://wgntv.com/weather/weather-blog/what-is-the-definition-of-indian-summer/

After the next major shot of cold air coming later this weekend into next week, I'd say many on here will enjoy some delightful Indian Summer weather as troughs begin to hit the West Coast post 20th.  This has been my target date of a significant pattern change for those in the PAC NW/N CA region.  How long does this last and who will benefit???  That is still up the in the Air as we enter the later parts of OCT.  My gut feeling says the majority of the Plains will see the best chance for more sustained warmer weather to close out OCT.

Speaking of air, the air temp trends here in the Valley of the Sun are rising into the mid/upper 90's the next few days BUT will fall significantly into the low 80's over the weekend as yet another trough comes in off the PAC into So Cal and the 4 corners.  We will be blessed with more precip here in the deserts.  Temps the following week will be in the 80's as a BN temp pattern sets up.  I think it'll be time to turn off the A/C for good this time???  Gotta say, the signs are pointing towards a good Autumn/Winter here from what I'm seeing.

 

 

[FV-Mike]

Ready for some rain. Radar looks decent back to the SW. 

[Iceresistance]

OK Mesonet says I got 1/2 inch in the past 2 days!

[OmahaSnowFan]

What’s this weird stuff in the air? I think they call it “humidity”.

[Iceresistance]

Beware for next week! The 12z CMC has a BIG (for Mid-October) cold blast in the Central and Southern USA starting Next Monday! Next Tuesday and Wednesday could have lows Below Freezing as far south as San Antonio, Houston (Texas), Baton Rouge (Louisiana, Birmingham, Montgomery (Alabama), and Atlanta or Colombus (Georgia).

@Andie, @OKwx2k4, and all other Southern Members here. Be ready to cover the plants or bring them inside next week!

[Andie]

16 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Beware for next week! The 12z CMC has a BIG (for Mid-October) cold blast in the Central and Southern USA starting Next Monday! Next Tuesday and Wednesday could have lows Below Freezing as far south as San Antonio, Houston (Texas), Baton Rouge (Louisiana, Birmingham, Montgomery (Alabama), and Atlanta or Colombus (Georgia).

@Andie, @OKwx2k4, and all other Southern Members here. Be ready to cover the plants or bring them inside next week!

Hey, that IS early for us.  
DFW generally doesn’t see below freezing till mid Nov.  

Sometimes we don’t see freezing until after Christmas.  

[Iceresistance]

18 minutes ago, Andie said:

Hey, that IS early for us.  
DFW generally doesn’t see below freezing till mid Nov.  

Sometimes we don’t see freezing until after Christmas.  

Also early for us too! Average first freeze in the first week of November and average first frost is in Late October

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Either we are going to witness Wisconsin turn into Hoth in October or there is something seriously wrong with the GFS snowfall map near the end of the run. 

Have you noticed a little bit of snow in Oklahoma on the same run?

 

The GFS does have a wackiness tendency for the long-range, this does apply for all of the models, but the GFS is usually the craziest.

[Niko]

This sounds sounds sweet..especially if it were in the colder months:

NOAA:

A long period of below normal
temperatures is then anticipated as an amplified Rossby Wave
attempts at closing off throughout the upcoming weekend. Despite the
large upper level low, the models are suggesting one that remains
dynamic as various internal potential vorticity features and jet
maxima are forecasted to rotate around the periphery. Enhanced fgen
could lead to relatively higher PoP chances early Saturday and again
by Monday. It will be interesting to see whether or not an active
subtropical jet becomes phased to the large upper level feature.

BTW: My forecast is calling for my first snowshowers of the season for early next week as a much colder air mass arrives. Highs remaining in the 40s and lows mostly in the 20s to maybe near 30F in the city of Detroit.

[james1976]

Just hit 80 at the MN home. Last time this year?

[CentralNebWeather]

10 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Just hit 80 at the MN home. Last time this year?

82 here with 26% humidity.  No wonder Red Flag Warnings are out.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Fire weather watch here for Wednesday and Thursday.

[Iceresistance]

Why have I not noticed it earlier on the 12z GFS? I don't know. But the model has a Rain/Snow mix for Oklahoma (including me and @OKwx2k4) Next Friday at +240 hours. (10 Days)

[Clinton]

I picked up .38 inches of rain this morning another round of thunderstorms are possible tonight.  Temps this fall have been fantastic, just need some rain.  More great temperatures ahead this week.

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Why have I not noticed it earlier on the 12z GFS? I don't know. But the model has a Rain/Snow mix for Oklahoma (including me and @OKwx2k4) Next Friday at +240 hours. (10 Days)

The 18z GFS drops the snow potential, but still a chilly blast mostly east of the by the +PNA

[OKwx2k4]

1 minute ago, Iceresistance said:

The 18z GFS drops the snow potential, but still a chilly blast mostly east of the by the -PNA

Right. Its going to be a slap in the face one way or the other. Euro and GFS flash signs of something over KS in the 10 day range. There's a sign for a near phase and huge blast in there with a storm parade. 

Objectively at this range, who knows?

Tomorrow, same low could be over AZ. Lol

[Madtown]

74 today...guessing it's the last 60 till May.

The week ahead...please recycle this 3 or 4 times in winter!

[Andie]

They’re calling for 92 tomorrow but next Wednesday may see a High of 70!  
40% chance of thunderstorms this Sunday.  Rain, at last.  
Talk about a dry Fall ! Maybe we’ll get lucky.  

[OKwx2k4]

44 minutes ago, Andie said:

They’re calling for 92 tomorrow but next Wednesday may see a High of 70!  
40% chance of thunderstorms this Sunday.  Rain, at last.  
Talk about a dry Fall ! Maybe we’ll get lucky.  

Grass is already brown here. Just waiting on the cold. Fall is coming. I believe winter will be howling on in right behind it.

[Grizzcoat]

GFS starting to lock on to a hard freeze on it's last two runs. Agreeing with the Euro and CMC. Would be end of growing season ( if not all ready happened)  for many reading.

[Clinton]

Fast moving line of storms blew through KC with some 50mph winds.  It should be in mby soon and deliver about a 1/2 inch of rainfall. 

[Iceresistance]

@Andie

A heavy rainfall event is possible for most of Central and Southern Texas in the next 5-8 Days. Some locations could have up to 3-5 inches locally. Northern Texas is currently likely to get 1-3 inches of rain. 

[westMJim]

Well, we finally got some rain and at times it was a heavy rain. Here in MBY I have recorded a total of 1.04” of rain fall. Up until midnight the official amount at Grand Rapids was 0.59” The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 75/42. That may have been the last high of 70 or better for 2022. We shall see. There was a reported 65% of possible sunshine. The overnight low so far today here in MBY has been 56. At the airport the low so far has been 57. For today the average H/L is now at 63/43 the record high of 84 was set in 1930 and the record low of 27 was set in 1957 and again in 1987. Last year the H/L was 66/61 and there was 0.37” of rain fall. Back in 2006 Grand Rapids had 2” of snow fall on this date.

 

[chescowxman]

Increasing clouds today with slightly above normal temps. Showers and some heavier rains arrive tomorrow with generally 0.50" to 1.00" of rain with more across western areas of the county. Dry and near normal temperatures over the weekend before a turn to sharply colder by early next week.

The record high for today is 86 degrees set in 1962. The record low is 27 degrees set in 1964. The daily rainfall record is 2.96" set way back in 1904.

Go Phillies!!!!!!!!!!!

[Tom]

As a wx enthusiast, how do you not get geeked out about this wx pattern???  Nature delivering a text book Greenland Block and a massive cut-off trough spins for days over the Upper MW/GL's region.  This is likely to be a signature period for this year's LRC pattern.  Gosh, one can only imagine what this could mean DEC-FEB. 

Let's not forget about what is transpiring near So CAL and the SW region as yet ANOTHER trough is cut-off and tracks into this area.  Like I've said before, IMHO this is a huge deal going forward into the colder months as the seasonal jet intensifies.  #STJ

 

Finally, there is a pattern break that will come into fruition and bring an end to the West Coast Ridge post 20th.  Get ready for an early start to the Snow season in the PAC NW/N CA region as the Sierra MTN's will see their first snows.  

 

[Andie]

9 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Grass is already brown here. Just waiting on the cold. Fall is coming. I believe winter will be howling on in right behind it.

That’s a scary thought if too fast.