October 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Gotta say, I'm digging what the models are showin' and what the weather is doin'!  A major early season LES event is about to hit the U.P. while the Upper MW just received their first accumulating snows of the season (not the last this month).

 

The Cross Polar Flow will deliver a major shot of early season cold for many of you.  Record breaking back home??  I'm prob going to miss out on the 1st flakes that could fly on Mon in NE IL.  I'll have plenty of chances when I get back. 

In the meantime, the pattern that keeps on giving here in the SW as a major surge in moisture will bless the deserts with significant amounts of RN.  Local totals may top 1-1.5" or more depending on training storms.  This is huge as it will hopefully increase the official tally's for the PHX area at Sky Harbor.

 

 

[Tom]

Topped out at a toasty 98F yesterday at PHX and this will likely be the last 90F+ reading of the season.  What a great way to finish off the week on a Summery note.  The pool was busy yesterday bc everyone wanted to get in a pool day before the "Weekend Washout."  I'm looking forward to seeing some torrential downpours.  It's wild to see how different the weather across our Nation can be as I enjoy the warmth/rain out here and ya'll up north are freezing and seeing snow and it's mid October.  The cold weather was not predicted well by the global models and missed the blocking patterns in the NE PAC and Greenland.

These departures will likely change significantly by end of next week for the Sub...

 

Looking for precip???  Chances are on the rise as my LR call post 20th we see a major pattern change.  I'm encouraged to see the models picking up on a couple cutters for the last week of the month.  Fits the pattern I see forthcoming.  The flip towards a -PNA and a relaxing EPO are the main drivers.  How long does this last?  I don't see this persisting into NOV.

On a side note, I predict the historically low water levels of the Mississippi Rive will reverse course and by next month the levels will rise.  By next Spring, we will most likely see a significant reversal and flooding from the Spring Snow Melt and loads of Precip as the La Nina pattern delivers.  Then what will "They" blame this on???  Time will tell.   

In the meantime, I want to see happy faces for those who need the moisture...

 

 

Finally, Think Snow...

[westMJim]

Good morning. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 53/38, there was officially 0.18” of rain fall no snow fall was reported and the sun was out 23% of the time. The overnight low and current temperature here in MBY has now fallen to 36 with some clearing. For today the average H/L  has now dropped to 61/42. The record high of 85 was set in 1897, 1899 and 1947. The record low of 23 was set in 1944. The record snow fall of a trace was set in 1983 and 2006. Last year it was 67/51 and there was 0.08” of rain fall. The next several days look to be wet and cool but with clouds hanging in there is not any hard freeze on the horizon in fact it looks like for the most part it should stay above 32.

 

[Andie]

71 this morning with a high expected to hit 93 ahead of a change for tomorrow.  

We should see a cloudy high of 78 Sunday with much welcomed rain! 
A low in the high 50’s Sunday night.
Fall in Texas is making its entrance in style!

[Iceresistance]

12 minutes ago, Andie said:

71 this morning with a high expected to hit 93 ahead of a change for tomorrow.  

We should see a cloudy high of 78 Sunday with much welcomed rain! 
A low in the high 50’s Sunday night.
Fall in Texas is making its entrance in style!

I'm expecting severe storms tonight. 

[Madtown]

26 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z GFS showed two feet of snow here by the end of the run.

A man can dream...

So I should get my fall cleanup done asap

[Clinton]

Another great weekend to get outside, I have had terrific temperatures this fall.  I'm likely to have a record low Tuesday morning, forecast is for 25 which would break the record of 28.  The hard freeze would be about 10 days ahead of average.

[Madtown]

Yikes...Sunday night!

[Tom]

9 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Yikes...Sunday night!

That’s wild stuff!  More like a late Nov Lake Effect event.  I remember going skiing up north by Wakefield to the former IndianHead Mtn resort during Thanksgiving and seeing good amount of lake effect powder.  Enjoy!

[chescowxman]

Spectacular weekend underway across Chester County PA. Showers likely on Monday followed by the chilliest air of the season for the rest of the week.

Go Phillies!!

The record high today is 89 degrees set way back in 1897. Our record low is 28 degrees from 1937. Daily rainfall record is the 1.58" that fell back in 1954.

[Iceresistance]

@OKwx2k4

Slight risk with Hatched area for Hail tonight, please be sure to take a nap today!  

[jaster220]

On 10/14/2022 at 8:28 AM, Tom said:

Cross Polar Flow…lookout below!

Reminds me of last September's strong SLP that had the same x-polar connection!

[jaster220]

APX says "Giddy-up" for early season LES accum's

 

[jaster220]

Lake Mich gonna be rockin'

[james1976]

Saw my first flakes of the season yesterday evening! I came back up to the MN home and right after I got here there was a nice squall that came through that was a rain/snow mix and then changed to all snow. Lasted about 20min and no accumulation but was great to see.

Thanks for posting all the model runs. Let's hope some of these maps verify!

[Tom]

Storms rolling in…these are the rolling clouds out ahead of an outflow!

[Tom]

About to get rocked!  Severe warned cell that’s intensifying is I always a good sign for some action.

[Iceresistance]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for Eastern Oklahoma into Central Arkansas, along I-40 from Okemah, OK to Memphis, TN.

[Tom]

Had a rainbow form right overhead  earlier on my morning walk…an eventful day of weather to say the least…

 

[Grizzcoat]

Doesn't get much lower for RH in this neck of the woods. 66 over 6 = RH of 9%!!!

[OmahaSnowFan]

10 hours ago, Tom said:

Topped out at a toasty 98F yesterday at PHX and this will likely be the last 90F+ reading of the season.  What a great way to finish off the week on a Summery note.  The pool was busy yesterday bc everyone wanted to get in a pool day before the "Weekend Washout."  I'm looking forward to seeing some torrential downpours.  It's wild to see how different the weather across our Nation can be as I enjoy the warmth/rain out here and ya'll up north are freezing and seeing snow and it's mid October.  The cold weather was not predicted well by the global models and missed the blocking patterns in the NE PAC and Greenland.

These departures will likely change significantly by end of next week for the Sub...

 

Looking for precip???  Chances are on the rise as my LR call post 20th we see a major pattern change.  I'm encouraged to see the models picking up on a couple cutters for the last week of the month.  Fits the pattern I see forthcoming.  The flip towards a -PNA and a relaxing EPO are the main drivers.  How long does this last?  I don't see this persisting into NOV.

On a side note, I predict the historically low water levels of the Mississippi Rive will reverse course and by next month the levels will rise.  By next Spring, we will most likely see a significant reversal and flooding from the Spring Snow Melt and loads of Precip as the La Nina pattern delivers.  Then what will "They" blame this on???  Time will tell.   

In the meantime, I want to see happy faces for those who need the moisture...

 

 

Finally, Think Snow...

Wanna bet money on the flooding?

And you seem to be missing what “they” are saying. More extreme events is the point.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Going to be quite the shock coming Monday and Tuesday before it goes right back to above normal and 70s.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Man who runs small time weather forum thinks the climate change scientists at NASA, and other scientific institutions and universities, etc. are morons.

More at 10 tonight.

[Iceresistance]

10 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Man who runs small time weather forum thinks the climate change scientists at NASA, and other scientific institutions and universities, etc. are morons.

More at 10 tonight.

Did you post at the wrong forum?

[OttumwaSnomow]

17 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Le sigh..

7 days? Lol 7 days of dry  is drop in bucket. Ive repeatedly  gone 10 to 20 days without   rain in 2022!  Im sitting  at about 23.5 inches which is about 14 or 15 inches below  avg. Except  for 1 week in march and 8 days in mid sept haven't  seen any periods of wet conditions.   If someone could find some official  numbers for Ottumwa  Iowa id appreciate  it.

[Grizzcoat]

^

[Madtown]

Let's get those flakes flying!

[Tom]

Complete opposite down here in the desert…Round 2 even better!  The winds that hit right at the beginning were rather gusty and bending the palm trees.  Looked like some of the vids you saw from Ian down in Tampa or Ft Myers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Iceresistance]

I'm under a severe thunderstorm watch. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

^

Thanks!  Yea otm not much on accuracy.  Automated gages. No melting of frozen precip etc.. i definitely  have had over 22 inches.

[Grizzcoat]

Only 9+ days out!!!   Fun to look at and that's about all I put into it.

[Tom]

I was awaken by Round 3 of noisy storms last night around 1:00am.  PHX total at midnight was 0.62" and I believe the airport had more rain afterwards.  I have to see how much the totals are for my area later this morning bc it will be easily over 1", maybe closer to 2".  These were some electric and strong storms that produced torrential downpours.  Just pure wx porn for the desert regions, esp out into W AZ/SoCal where there is a lot of crop being grown!

 

[Tom]

This is some real deal Legit Lake Effect snow Blitz incoming for the Yoopers up north!  My goodness...

Quote

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
447 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022

MIZ004-005-162100-
/O.NEW.KMQT.WS.W.0009.221017T0000Z-221018T1500Z/
Baraga-Marquette-
Including the cities of L`Anse, Gwinn, and Marquette
447 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM
EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy, wet snow begins tonight and continues through
  Monday night, resulting in poor travel conditions. Total snow
  accumulations of 8 to 16 inches in the higher terrain a few
  miles inland from Lake Superior with locally higher totals
  approaching 2 feet possible across the Michigamme Highlands.
  Winds gusting as high as 45 mph through Monday afternoon then as
  high as 50 mph Monday night.

* WHERE...Baraga and Marquette Counties.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Patchy
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the commutes Monday morning and
  Monday evening. Gusty winds and wet snow could bring down tree
  branches, resulting in potentially widespread power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Since this is the first winter storm of the
  season, extra caution is urged for those who must travel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

[Tom]

12 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Did you post at the wrong forum?

The only person on here who laughs at my posts that provide meaningful value for many of our members on here.  Pretty sad.

[Tom]

Literally everyone on here will enjoy some True Indian Summer wx next weekend as temps surge into the 70's/80's out ahead of our next system we will be tracking post 25th.

Meantime, it's a cool 63F here and this is the lowest temp I've experienced since coming out here in early Aug.  Might not get out of the upper 70's today and I'm looking forward to be at the pool when the skies clear out later this afternoon.

[Madtown]

WSW!!!! woot woot. looks like 4-8" here. Hopefully it happens. Lake effect is a fickle one. 

[Clinton]

This mornings GEFS is indicating that @CentralNebWeather @hawkstwelve and @james1976 will see there first accumulating snowfall around the 25th, 26th.  The ensembles are also showing some much need rainfall for many others including yours truly.

[Tom]

Will this be our Sub's 1st Winter Storm??  Trends are pointing that way...both 0z EPS and GEFS are starting to sniff out a potential wintry side to the Autumn storm around the target date of the 25th-27th.

 

[westMJim]

Yesterdays official H/L at Grand Rapids was 52/37 there was 0.14” of rain fall no sow fall was reported and there was 40% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in my yard this morning is 36 and that is the current temperature with clear skies. There is very good color in my area at this time in fact it is some of the best color I have seen here in many years. For today the average H/L is 61/42 the record high of 83 was set in 1938 and the record low of 25 was set in 1992 and 1943. The record snow fall amount of a trace was reported in 2004,1992 and 1943. Last year the H/L at Grand Rapids was 54/46.

 

[Clinton]

Freeze Watch goes into effect Monday night and highs Mon and Tuesday won't make it out of the 40s.