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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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image.png

hahahaha!!!

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Still no sign of any meaningful rainfall the next 10 days on the gfs or cmc. In the fall of 2012 the faucet turned on October 12th. I think sometime mid month the pattern will finally shift and we will get our first real storms. Could really use a pattern like we had during the 2nd half of that month. Picked up 7.57” of rain from 10/12-10/31 that year. 

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3 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

74/50 today was the warmest October day since 10/6/14 when we pulled off a 75/53. That’s also the warmest day I’ve recorded 2005 to present. Pretty good chance we break that record coming up. 

79/47 here.  Amazing how much higher spread I end up with here.  It's so incredibly dry here it's able to plunge at night very easily.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Geeze.  Out of the last 3 Octobers I've only had three 70+ days here.  All in 2020 and all low 70s.  These next few days are going to be at just plain freaky levels.  Something big is going to happen when we come out of this.  Just don't know what exactly.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

79/47 here.  Amazing how much higher spread I end up with here.  It's so incredibly dry here it's able to plunge at night very easily.

Longer nights definitely help out despite the warm airmass. Down to 11 hours and 40 minutes of daylight as of today. Overnight lows still haven’t been very impressive here for late September/early October. DPs are in the mid 50s across the area right too. 

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Still no sign of any meaningful rainfall the next 10 days on the gfs or cmc. In the fall of 2012 the faucet turned on October 12th. I think sometime mid month the pattern will finally shift and we will get our first real storms. Could really use a pattern like we had during the 2nd half of that month. Picked up 7.57” of rain from 10/12-10/31 that year. 

Yeah....This GFS run was terrible.  Just as far from anything at the end of the run as we are now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Longer nights definitely help out despite the warm airmass. Down to 11 hours and 40 minutes of daylight as of today. Overnight lows still haven’t been very impressive here for late September/early October. DPs are in the mid 50s across the area right too. 

I sure wish the dps were lower.  As it is the nights are long enough and ground dry enough that the dp gets chased down through the night here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Geeze.  Out of the last 3 Octobers I've only had three 70+ days here.  All in 2020 and all low 70s.  These next few days are going to be at just plain freaky levels.  Something big is going to happen when we come out of this.  Just don't know what exactly.

 

E976A117-BBB0-4975-ABDD-A315E938DD4C.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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If this MJO wave keeps going the pattern will have to change when the wave gets to a favorable position for us.  If the wave dies this could go on for a long time.  There are years in the past that went dry through most of November.  None of those years had the insane dryness going into autumn that we had this year though.  If November is dry it should be cold if past history has anything to say about it.

No matter how you slice it this is getting weird though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

That's probably a good sign.

I dunno.  This pattern is about as stable as it gets.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I dunno.  This pattern is about as stable as it gets.

Maybe the effects from Tonga have altered the normal patterns?   No way to know for sure, but we do know there is an unprecedented situation in the stratosphere right now in terms of water vapor.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z ECMWF looks similar to its 12Z run for early next week.   A little farther east with the troughing to the north but the overall evolution is about the same.   That probably means it's going to happen.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Weather summary
for British Columbia
issued by Environment Canada
at 12:07 a.m. PDT Sunday 2 October 2022.

Discussion.

A ridge of high pressure brought another warm autumn day. 

The following areas set a daily maximum temperature record on 
October 1, 2022 (temperature values given in degrees Celsius): 

Cache Creek Area (Ashcroft) 
New record of 26.6 
Old record of 26.3 set in 2012 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Clearwater Area (Clearwater Auto) 
New record of 24.8 
Old record of 23.9 set in 1923 
Records in this area have been kept since 1913 

Comox Area (Comox A) 
New record of 23.0 
Old record of 22.9 set in 1992 
Records in this area have been kept since 1914 

Courtenay Area (Comox A) 
New record of 23.0 
Old record of 22.9 set in 1992 
Records in this area have been kept since 1914 

Hope Area (Hope Airport) 
New record of 28.8 
Old record of 27.7 set in 1987 
Records in this area have been kept since 1936 

Lytton Area (Lytton RCS) 
New record of 27.3 
Old record of 26.9 set in 2003 
Records in this area have been kept since 1921 

Merritt Area (Merritt) 
New record of 27.9 
Old record of 27.8 set in 1975 
Records in this area have been kept since 1918 

Port Alberni Area (Port Alberni (AUT)) 
New record of 28.0 
Old record of 26.5 set in 1987 
Records in this area have been kept since 1900 

Revelstoke Area (Revelstoke Airport Auto) 
New record of 23.1 
Old record of 22.8 set in 2003 
Records in this area have been kept since 1898 

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe the effects from Tonga have altered the normal patterns?   No way to know for sure, but we do know there is an unprecedented situation in the stratosphere right now in terms of water vapor.

Yeah the situation in the stratosphere is unprecedented in recorded history. Can’t neglect it.

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah the situation in the stratosphere is unprecedented in recorded history. Can’t neglect it.

No doubt something really weird is going on.  I will say this is no more messed up than the 1930s were though.

All I know is the pattern will change eventually.  Huge potential for something epic later on.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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SH temps are -0.5 right now.  No sign of any warming from Hunga Tonga.  Global temps only +0.2.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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EPS shows us drier than an SOB right through the end of the run. 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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No doubt this is some crazy shit caused by the volcano.  25S to 65S at the 30mb level is where it really shows up.

30mb2565.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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How can I get weenie tagged and downvoted for statements that are provably true?  Only one post had any kind of speculation involved.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like Bozeman ended up with 23.06" of precipitation for the water year which is a bit above the average of 20". 

Had a 51/45 day here yesterday with just 0.06" of rainfall. Already up to 0.42" on the day today though and it's still raining. currently 45F.

It has been another really beneficial rainfall, especially for Central Montana.

Screen Shot 2022-10-02 at 8.07.23 AM.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

EPS shows us drier than an SOB right through the end of the run. 

You weren't kidding.   I won't believe a pattern change is imminent until I see it on the EPS.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1664668800-1664668800-1665964800-10.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_15day-5921600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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