Phishy Wx Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 35 minutes ago, MossMan said: Becoming a weekly routine washing the ash and driveway dust off my truck. Now time to watch the Seahawks lose! Analog? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: Analog? 1949. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 The GEFS actually had a decent number of members showing us getting clipped by a chilly airmass after the 10th. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 @snow_wizard Definitely understand your rave reviews about the Liberty Mountains now! May have to come back and explore them at some point. I-90 from Seattle to Ellensburg is definitely one of the top stretches of interstate in the US. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 Temperature isn't the only way energy can be stored in a system. Given that stratospheric temperatures are at unprecedented record lows, multiple standard deviations below both running averages and previous records, it is demonstrably true that there is an energy imbalance in the atmosphere. Where that energy has gone, I don't know. Maybe the world temperature departure would be +0.1F instead of +0.2F, maybe the earth's oceans are a little warmer, or certain weather systems (ridges, large scale storms with tropical-midlatitude connections) are amplified. Maybe that energy is being put into evaporation, or glacial melt. Either way, it's there. If it weren't, the stratosphere wouldn't be so cold. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 Euro decides to mix things up a little and put us under a massive ridge toward day 10 2 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Temperature isn't the only way energy can be stored in a system. Given that stratospheric temperatures are at unprecedented record lows, multiple standard deviations below both running averages and previous records, it is demonstrably true that there is an energy imbalance in the atmosphere. Where that energy has gone, I don't know. Maybe the world temperature departure would be +0.1F instead of +0.2F, maybe the earth's oceans are a little warmer, or certain weather systems (ridges, large scale storms with tropical-midlatitude connections) are amplified. Maybe that energy is being put into evaporation, or glacial melt. Either way, it's there. If it weren't, the stratosphere wouldn't be so cold. Hmm what is the likely culprit? Wish I had become a scientist like I wanted to become in middle school. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 70 here just before noon. Haven’t recorded a high above 75 in October before (2005-present). Might do it today and tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Euro decides to mix things up a little and put us under a massive ridge toward day 10 The way it’s looking we might have to wait even longer than we did in 2012 for a flip to wetter weather. The dryness and warmth since early July has been even more anomalous than this spring even was. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Euro decides to mix things up a little and put us under a massive ridge toward day 10 Would be a nice change of pace, honestly. God forbid we had a repeat of 2020. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 The Euro shows us briefly getting clipped by that system before igniting another round of warm offshore flow. Sounds about right. Fire danger could be pretty high with that, something that feels bizarre to talk about since it will be nearly mid October by then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 The new Omega pattern 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: The way it’s looking we might have to wait even longer than we did in 2012 for a flip to wetter weather. The dryness and warmth since early July has been even more anomalous than this spring even was. The only thing anomalous about this spring is that we had to wait ten years for one like it 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 Just now, James Jones said: The Euro shows us briefly getting clipped by that system before igniting another round of warm offshore flow. Sounds about right. Fire danger could be pretty high with that, something that feels bizarre to talk about since it will be nearly mid October by then. AQI is 74 here it’s worse than it looks on satellite imagery. Looks like this is gonna go on for awhile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 Something tells me Jim is super stoked by how weird things look right now!!!!! 2 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 Just now, TacomaWx said: AQI is 74 here it’s worse than it looks on satellite imagery. Looks like this is gonna go on for awhile. Yeah, looks nasty on the ground from pictures I've seen. We've been very lucky in the Portland area to have only had a few days with particularly bad smoke. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Euro decides to mix things up a little and put us under a massive ridge toward day 10 First signs of cool offshore flow though. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 Just now, RentonHillTC said: Hmm what is the likely culprit? Wish I had become a scientist like I wanted to become in middle school. It would come from a reduction on outgoing energy, that way it builds up in the Troposphere instead of radiating out into space. And I should impress that the energy imbalance measured could very well be indistinguishable at a macro scale. Or perhaps it could be demonstrating itself transiently. The whole atmos/cryo/hydro system is so complex and interconnected that there is very little way of telling just *how* much energy has been added to the sfc system, or what the hell it is even doing to it, tangibly. Basically what I am trying to say is that both @snow_wizard and @TT-SEA have been enjoying their hot dogs lately, seeing as their posts regarding the Hunga Tonga eruption have been very... presumptuous... in nature, regarding its current and future impacts, as well as the scope of its effects. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 Just now, James Jones said: Yeah, looks nasty on the ground from pictures I've seen. We've been very lucky in the Portland area to have only had a few days with particularly bad smoke. We’ve had lots of weak-moderate offshore flow since the east wind event in early September. Just continuing to go on and on. Very bizarre to be in October with everything so bone dry smoky and absolutely no sign of cooler wet weather to change it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kayla said: First signs of cool offshore flow though. We need rain Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: We need rain No doubt. I've never seen the fire/smoke season last as long as it has for the PNW. Especially unusual considering that the rest of the west is actually decently moist thanks to these cutoffs. We're living in an upside down world it seems. 1 1 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 You know it’s been dry when the grass in North Bend and the grass in Vantage are the same color. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 LR EPS is insanely warm. This is a 52 member mean, 15 days out. 1 1 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Phil said: LR EPS is insanely warm. This is a 52 member mean, 15 days out. Weird. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 Whoa. Troutdale at 85. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, Phil said: LR EPS is insanely warm. This is a 52 member mean, 15 days out. I have a feeling it's going to crash hard in December. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 5 hours ago, TT-SEA said: SEA ended the water year with 45.48 inches which is +6.14 compared to normal. Ending up much wetter than normal... despite setting records for the warmest and driest July - September period ever and a summer which also set a record the longest streak of 90+ degree days and the most 90+ days in total. When I was looking up the updated SEA average annual rainfall (which is higher than the long term average)... I found this chart which shows how the average temps changed by month with the 1991-2020 averages and its not correct to say that its really only summer that is has been getting warmer. Its probably more accurate to say that the January - March period has been warming more slowly. The increase in average temps was pretty consistent from April - December and not just focused on summer. Again though, it's ignoring the elephant in the room to only go off SEA's numbers. I suspect a similar trend, with less warming, at stations that have seen less UHI increase. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said: The only thing anomalous about this spring is that we had to wait ten years for one like it This is objectively wrong. 1 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Something tells me Jim is super stoked by how weird things look right now!!!!! Put that COFFEE down, coffee's for closers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 Some low 80s popping up around the area. 73 here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 Just now, TacomaWx said: Some low 80s popping up around the area. 73 here. Spiked to 77 here, dropped back to 75 currently. Insane! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Something tells me Jim is super stoked by how weird things look right now!!!!! You spelled Tim wrong. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, fubario said: You spelled Tim wrong. Two sides of the same irrational coin Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 This year had far less smoke here than the past two. And a lot of new green shoots coming up after the rain this week. The worm will turn. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 Atleast 10 days until precip. Gee whiz. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 There are EPS members with 21-22°C 850mb temps over PDX on October 16th. That seems pretty outrageous. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said: The end is here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said: We need rain When don't we? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Something tells me Jim is super stoked by how weird things look right now!!!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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