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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx

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The models are just a train wreck today.  Incredible actually.

My money is on a reckoning later on.  We'll see.  No way this regime will hold through the entire cold season with a significant Nina in play.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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18z gonna be a banger, calling it now

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  • Excited 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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55 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This year had far less smoke here than the past two. And a lot of new green shoots coming up after the rain this week. The worm will turn.

This has gotten to the point where it has to lead to something significant.  May be nothing more than exceptional rain, but something is coming.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Two sides of the same irrational coin

You might need to do some self reflection as well.  I'm not sure most people would say you are the picture of rational right now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This has gotten to the point where it has to lead to something significant.  May be nothing more than exceptional rain, but something is coming.

...drought?

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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21 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

18z gonna be a banger, calling it now

150 hours in, and the only banging going on is the kind that involves both my head and the wall to my left.

  • lol 4

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

150 hours in, and the only banging going on is the kind that involves both my head and the wall to my left.

At least it looks like monsoon season is finally kicking in though!!

  • Popcorn 1

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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What amazes me is that what is being forecast is essentially a perma-heatwave, with high temps running 7-15F above average for days and days on end. Even with the heatwaves earlier this summer, the patterns themselves broke down within a week.

There is no pattern breakdown upcoming... Every day looks to hit summertime levels into the indefinite future. Absolutely confounding, bizarre predictions for October. A complete displacement from our actual climate... A figurative jaunt 800 miles to the south for much of the region.

For comparison, in July, this would mean highs above 90F for two plus weeks straight at KSEA. Only thing preventing a similar outcome now is the grace of lowering sun angles. The only even closely relevant precedent would be October 1991... And even then, there was a relatively even split between October climo and strong ridging, frequently trading between highs in the 70s and 60s. What is being forecast is 70F+ weather for....eternity?

  • Like 4
  • Sick 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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9 minutes ago, Kayla said:

At least it looks like monsoon season is finally kicking in though!!

Given the belated start, it's almost as if the monsoon were shifted forward in time by a month!

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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image.png

I mean what the hell even is this garbage?? A ridge extending from Russia to Ontario. :lol:

  • lol 1
  • Sick 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Had to log on here just to check if the week's forecast is actually in the 70's/sunny or if I was just seeing things.  

I planted peppers a bit late this year so I guess "Octugust" can help with that 😅

𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

image.png

I mean what the hell even is this garbage?? A ridge extending from Russia to Ontario. :lol:

I usually get mocked for mentioning Tonga... but it just feels like everything has been out of whack since about March.   And there is no end in sight.    And Tonga sure seems like a smoking gun.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I usually get mocked for mentioning Tonga... but it just feels like everything has been out of whack since about March.   And there is no end in sight.    And Tonga sure seems like a smoking gun.

Or, there could be no rhyme or reason at all and weather just happens? Sometimes you get heads, sometimes you get tails. Sometimes you get heads 3 times in a row. You could get heads 10 times in a row even though the odds are very much stacked against you. That feels like what we’re experiencing. Last June felt like heads 20 times in a row, although I know those odds are astronomically low. 

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2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Or, there could be no rhyme or reason at all and weather just happens? Sometimes you get heads, sometimes you get tails. Sometimes you get heads 3 times in a row. You could get heads 10 times in a row even though the odds are very much stacked against you. That feels like what we’re experiencing. Last June felt like heads 20 times in a row, although I know those odds are astronomically low. 

Sure... could be that too.    I  have no idea.    But it has just seemed really strange even in context of our warming climate.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

What amazes me is that what is being forecast is essentially a perma-heatwave, with high temps running 7-15F above average for days and days on end. Even with the heatwaves earlier this summer, the patterns themselves broke down within a week.

There is no pattern breakdown upcoming... Every day looks to hit summertime levels into the indefinite future. Absolutely confounding, bizarre predictions for October. A complete displacement from our actual climate... A figurative jaunt 800 miles to the south for much of the region.

For comparison, in July, this would mean highs above 90F for two plus weeks straight at KSEA. Only thing preventing a similar outcome now is the grace of lowering sun angles. The only even closely relevant precedent would be October 1991... And even then, there was a relatively even split between October climo and strong ridging, frequently trading between highs in the 70s and 60s. What is being forecast is 70F+ weather for....eternity?

I still remember 1991.  Freakishly dry late summer and well into the autumn.  Came out of that with a major cold wave.  I think there was a decent wind event before the cold as well.

This thing now is on a scale never seen before though, given what has already happened.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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34 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Or, there could be no rhyme or reason at all and weather just happens? Sometimes you get heads, sometimes you get tails. Sometimes you get heads 3 times in a row. You could get heads 10 times in a row even though the odds are very much stacked against you. That feels like what we’re experiencing. Last June felt like heads 20 times in a row, although I know those odds are astronomically low. 

I don't buy it.  The weather gets into certain regimes that produce unusual outcomes for years at a time.  As I've mentioned so many times the 1930s were psychotic.  Something caused that unusual period to happen.

Upon reflection I think Tonga could have something to do with this though.  Even though none of the stratospheric temp anoms have gotten into the northern hem there could be some kind of a chain reaction that has been set off.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Tonga lol

  • Confused 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Tonga is almost certainly going to factor into the equation here. This is an absurd amount of H2O lingering up in the stratosphere.

DF393076-1F92-4EDB-9149-EE503709DE4C.png
46851230-8043-430D-8217-75C79C93FA6E.png

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15 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t think it’s an lol. At all.

Ok. I really don’t think these record warm months are due to Tonga. It’s kind of been a thing since 2014.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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25 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The worst of the smoke has dissipated. Looking towards the mountains this morning, it seemed as if the smoke was worse at lower levels, so I took a chance and drove up to Mount Seymour. I was correct: above 750 m elevation, it was much clearer.

Some photos follow.

IMG_0035_scaled.jpg.dd84e68633501eb971cd8ba623f771d8.jpg

Mystery Lake. People were swimming it. Swimming in an alpine lake in October. Something just seems wrong about that.

 

IMG_0036_scaled.jpg.92845de0c913c9c6a6192844247d8c58.jpg

Wild blueberries (Vaccinium deliciosum). They live up to their Latin name.

 

IMG_0039_scaled.jpg.404aec3962dfb14000267005a4302e8e.jpg

That is a black bear just left of centre. Not the best of photos, but I did not have a telephoto lens and did not want to get any closer.

 

IMG_0041_scaled.jpg.0893bc6f86da9379c275df4b2cd82de7.jpg

Mount Seymour

 

IMG_0042_scaled.jpg.d9be5963ca19eb724f5076e0c4ea61e3.jpg

First Peak, aka Pump Peak

 

IMG_0044_scaled.jpg.634c8e9ad9984f9817ca44f88f2fef9a.jpg

Looking towards Vancouver from First Peak. Still very hazy!

 

IMG_0046_scaled.jpg.d394c73d78bb3577c667f4d599f06588.jpg

Second Peak, aka Mt. Seymour proper.

 

IMG_0049_scaled.jpg.5d9f153aac7afd77738dce2e04d41857.jpg

Looking NE from First Peak.

 

IMG_0050_scaled.jpg.ccee5c41f46554c9949bbb8e3ceac48b.jpg

Crowded at the top.

Nice pics. 
 

we’ve had so many bears (different ones) around in twisp relative to last two years it’s crazy. Don’t know if the extended warmth is good or bad for them. Maybe good since early alpine freeze would force them down to find more food before hibernation? Idk

 

32BC95ED-A2E8-45B0-8B9F-8B38DA19E84C.gif

A08FFB29-1F03-4767-9DA5-A98DE898E0BA.gif

AE850CA1-9A1B-42FA-A318-49E0C3F20392.gif

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