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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx

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4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Nice pics. 
 

we’ve had so many bears (different ones) around in twisp relative to last two years it’s crazy. Don’t know if the extended warmth is good or bad for them. Maybe good since early alpine freeze would force them down to find more food before hibernation? Idk

 

32BC95ED-A2E8-45B0-8B9F-8B38DA19E84C.gif

A08FFB29-1F03-4767-9DA5-A98DE898E0BA.gif

AE850CA1-9A1B-42FA-A318-49E0C3F20392.gif

And that was only one of the two bears I saw today! I assume the berries were attracting them.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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16 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Still 70 degrees at nearly 6pm. And there is a sprinkler running in my yard…In October…Well okay then…

2BA29639-CA5B-4E70-B773-40B08BDC4D53.jpeg

Are you...watering your...moss??

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yes! Cannot have dead moss! 

Considering you are made of it, that would not be good!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Ok. I really don’t think these record warm months are due to Tonga. It’s kind of been a thing since 2014.

Not saying that Tonga is responsible for warming.    I am speculating that it might be related to changing the normal circulation patterns around the globe.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Winterdog said:

77 for a high today after a 46 for a low.  I think we may need a major shakeup like a monster typhoon to knock this pattern around a bit.  It's very pleasant but I would prefer cold and miserable.

At least cold.  Maybe the MJO wave getting into the right position will give it the needed kick.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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43 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Still 70 degrees at nearly 6pm. And there is a sprinkler running in my yard…In October…Well okay then…

2BA29639-CA5B-4E70-B773-40B08BDC4D53.jpeg

How does 75 at 6:30 sound?  The temps have stayed really warm in the evening here the last couple of days and then it plunges after dark.  Lows have been in the upper 40s here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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16 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

7BC8FCAB-562C-4AD4-8384-B4C9DAA0049F.jpeg.729d3e1aa095622be0dadb47941318c1.jpeg

Wow.  Some states have been even warmer than here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Can't wait until we have a change to talk about.  Until then it's speculate about what this means and what it may lead to.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Since the weather looks to be kind of boring for the first half of the month at least, I was thinking about other Octobers and was wondering, why are October windstorms more common than April ones? There was the April 2017 event but that was unusual I think while October has had many more windstorms.

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SEA NWS making some enemies here with comments like this...

“What a delight,” said Mike McFarland, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Seattle. “Around here, if we get any extra summery weather into the fall, that is just a bonus.”

 

seas 79.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'm just going to vent for a brief moment. It's been a month of smoke at my house, with US 2 being intermittently closed (which that part is fine by me, no pass traffic). I'm sick of it. Just need one decent wet system to run through and it just won't, and there's no relief in sight. This sucks and I kinda really hate it.

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Just now, smerfylicious said:

I'm just going to vent for a brief moment. It's been a month of smoke at my house, with US 2 being intermittently closed (which that part is fine by me, no pass traffic). I'm sick of it. Just need one decent wet system to run through and it just won't, and there's no relief in sight. This sucks and I kinda really hate it.

Totally agree.    I was thinking about you earlier today being so close to the source of this smoke.    The fact that we have not had even one decent system and none in sight is genuinely frustrating.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

F97EDFE0-80FE-480D-93E1-A3B5967F2B88.thumb.jpeg.54854139354c0c81f68767bd680998c6.jpeg

@snow_wizard Definitely understand your rave reviews about the Liberty Mountains now! May have to come back and explore them at some point.

I-90 from Seattle to Ellensburg is definitely one of the top stretches of interstate in the US.

Did you know: Mt. Stuart is roughly 100 million years old, 50 million years older than the entire Cascade range! It's made of exotic rock that's been isotopically linked to Baja, Mexico. Really interesting geology there. (there's actually a ton of really interesting geography in Washington, really underrated)

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Programming alert... on tonight's new episode of Family Guy the family travels to Bend, OR to visit the last Blockbuster Video store. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

Since the weather looks to be kind of boring for the first half of the month at least, I was thinking about other Octobers and was wondering, why are October windstorms more common than April ones? There was the April 2017 event but that was unusual I think while October has had many more windstorms.

With wavelengths rapidly increasing it’s more likely to encounter strong baroclinic setups as we get further into October. That coupled with potential typhoon remnants makes it a good breeding ground.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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October 2006 was super dry and then it rained over 2’ here in November. 

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  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Sitting out on the porch, my wife keeps remarking about how pleasant it is. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Programming alert... on tonight's new episode of Family Guy the family travels to Bend, OR to visit the last Blockbuster Video store. 

All about Blockbuster with only incidental mention of Bend... not even any Oregon or PNW digs.     There was some social commentary on the people between "Washington and Washington".

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Well...this run has Nevada getting way more rain than WA.  Pretty insane.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

At this rate I won't be getting my rain fix until I'm in SE Asia toward the end of this month. At least my odds for rain look pretty good there. With 164" of rain per year, Kuching makes our totals look measly in comparison.

A lot of that could be monsoons, which might be ending soon if they haven't already.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Well...this run has Nevada getting way more rain than WA.  Pretty insane.

And there’s a good chance this run is still too progressive with the pattern. I think this pattern will end with the ridge retrograding out into the GOA upon the next -EAMT/-dAAMt, should it be sufficient.

Hard to say when that is, but it’s probably a ways off.

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

A lot of that could be monsoons, which might be ending soon if they haven't already.

Kuching is deep in the ITCZ, they have a tropical rainforest rather than seasonal monsoon climate with heavy rain every month of the year. They are impacted by the NE monsoon though and that really kicks off in Nov - Mar. Intense afternoon thunderstorms are basically a guarantee there. I'm also visiting Thailand before heading back and they're more impacted by the SW monsoon and the NE monsoon usually rips through quickly in October, so will probably be drier by then. Apparently much of SE Asia has had an intense monsoon season this year.

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FWIW the extended GEFS had the pattern breaking down at the very end of this month on the mean and around the 20th on the control model.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot of that could be monsoons, which might be ending soon if they haven't already.

Just looked it up.  Their wet season is just starting... runs October-April.    Summer is their dry season and they still average 8+ inches in those months.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

And there’s a good chance this run is still too progressive with the pattern. I think this pattern will end with the ridge retrograding out into the GOA upon the next -EAMT/-dAAMt, should it be sufficient.

Hard to say when that is, but it’s probably a ways off.

Yeah...some runs have hinted at retrogression.  As you say that could take weeks.  Probably a cold end if it happens that way.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Just looked it up.  Their wet season is just starting... runs October-April.    Summer is their dry season and they still average 8+ inches in those months.

Sounds like he'll see some rain then.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Seattle/Portland rain total for October will be 1in

-135 for under 

+500 for over 

Eh, one errant AR and you could get like 1.5" in a day despite nothing else all month... And would be pretty easy to get, even (especially) in this ridgy regime. Risky bet on the under!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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