Gradient Keeper Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 We are going to pay dearly for this stretch of Indian Summer weather that look to persists into at least mid-October. One day closer to an arctic blast! 12z GFS in 9 hours 24 minutes 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 33 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Eh, one errant AR and you could get like 1.5" in a day despite nothing else all month... And would be pretty easy to get, even (especially) in this ridgy regime. Risky bet on the under! Happened in January and February this year. Both had very long dry stretches and would have been very dry months if not for one well-placed AR. Farther south in northern CA foothill and upslope areas that's kinda how winter precip works by default. Sometimes you get 2-3 weeks with nothing and then an AR comes and dumps 5" in two days. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 It turns out 1942 is the best match to the observed weather in a La Nina year at least back to 1895. I calculated that using hot summer, driest Jul - Oct totals on record, in a La Nina base state. 1974 is the second best match, but didn't have the hot summer. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 20 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: We are going to pay dearly for this stretch of Indian Summer weather that look to persists into at least mid-October. One day closer to an arctic blast! 12z GFS in 9 hours 24 minutes And one day further from the last one. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: And one day further from the last one. Ah yes, but we're not only one day closer to the next one, we are for the following Winter too. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 00z ECMWF - Day 7-10 almost a nice backdoor cool shot as a clipper system dives through Montana. Snowy for Montana and Wyoming! Here we go! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 21 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z ECMWF - Day 7-10 almost a nice backdoor cool shot as a clipper system dives through Montana. Snowy for Montana and Wyoming! Here we go! Kind of lends some support to Phils retrogression theory. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 I'm betting it will be more than 2 weeks before any meaningful rain arrives. 1 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 00z EPS is literally a carbon copy of 1988. FWIW that was also a strong niña/+QBO with warm extratropics. Interesting. 4 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Looked at the observed weather for the Portland area July-Sept of 1988 and 1942. Would give anything to have had that kind of climatologically normal pleasantness compared to the months of torrid hell we’ve just endured. 2022 is in its own league. Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 It is insane how many 16 day runs in a row show us getting skunked for rain. That doesn’t even happy in mid-summer too often. There is not even a glimmer of hope until well beyond halfway through October. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Yeah 00z EPS says NOPE! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Somehow have 52 degree fog here this morning even with the bone dry soil and 87 degree day yesterday. 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 A watched pot never boils. The worm will turn. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 I think the latter half of October abruptly turns wet and very active potential wind storms into November. Winter, 2-3 arctic intrusions or full-on blasts. Snow amounts unknown. 12z ECMWF in 4 hours 32 minutes 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 5 hours ago, Phil said: Early February 1989 delivered a major arctic blast for us. The remainder of the Fall/Winter was boring. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 If the forecast plays out (it will), we will average around 66 degrees for the first half of October. That's warmer than the average June or September. October averages 55.6. In 3 days, the average high will be 69 and the average low will be 49. We haven't had a high that low since June 19th or a low that low since May 22nd. Our record streaks of 70+ and 50+ could go on another two weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: If the forecast plays out (it will), we will average around 66 degrees for the first half of October. That's warmer than the average June or September. October averages 55.6. In 3 days, the average high will be 69 and the average low will be 49. We haven't had a high that low since June 19th or a low that low since May 22nd. Our record streaks of 70+ and 50+ could go on another two weeks. I’m wondering if we end up with the most anomalously warm month on record. I certainly think it’s on the table. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Dense fog here and 55. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 This guy beat me into the office this morning. We also had ice fog along the Truckee River which was neat to see. 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsktkr Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: This guy beat me into the office this morning. We also had ice fog along the Truckee River which was neat to see. Tahoe seems like such an awesome place to live. I have visited countless times. I am seriously considering a south shore cabin purchase so I can work from home there every winter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 20 minutes ago, rsktkr said: Tahoe seems like such an awesome place to live. I have visited countless times. I am seriously considering a south shore cabin purchase so I can work from home there every winter. If you want an insane amount of snow look out towards Meyers in the North/South upper Truckee neighborhoods. If you want to walk to the water from your house look in the Al Tahoe neighborhood where I live. Prices are starting to come down finally but inventory is really low. Hopefully it will improve by next year. The crowds can get kind of insane but it is an amazing place to live. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Welcome to Augtober! Population: Everyone 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 as mentioned a couple days ago, bring on an 88-89 redux 66" of snow in Spokane on the season highlighted by a -4/-11 on 2/2/89 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: as mentioned a couple days ago, bring on an 88-89 redux 66" of snow in Spokane on the season highlighted by a -4/-11 on 2/2/89 I am pretty sure it took a freak SSW event for that Feb blast to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 This warm weather keeps pushing back my garlic planting. The tomatoes are happy, but feel bad about having to rip them out with so many green ones. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 At this stage, I wouldn’t be surprised it the rainy season holds off until well into November. I also wouldn’t be surprised if it starts in a few weeks, despite the current model consensus. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 I thinking first soaking storm in late October, probably be mid/late November for first snow here this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: At this stage, I wouldn’t be surprised it the rainy season holds off until well into November. I also wouldn’t be surprised if it starts in a few weeks, despite the current model consensus. Our region has been stuck under multi month ridges in the heart of winter for the last 5 years. I would rather we get the 90 day ridge out of the way now and kick off the rainy season in Dec and hopefully it won't shut off till March. The PNW needs a cold front ASAP to put out those stupid lingering fires. If we don't get a snap back in winter from this torching summer/fall we are all in big trouble. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: I thinking first soaking storm in late October, probably be mid/late November for first snow here this year Get the feeling it will be a “Niña that acts more like a Niño” winter for us, just because conditions have been similar to that in this region since early July. Not saying there’s going to be no lowland snow at all (usually get some even in a Niño winter), just that it will probably be less than an average amount and not stick around for long. 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 3, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Low of 52 this morning and foggy…AQI still not great yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Low of 52 this morning and foggy…AQI still not great yet. Same here but sans fog. Crazy warm for a clear night in October! Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said: Get the feeling it will be a “Niña that acts more like a Niño” winter for us, just because conditions have been similar to that in this region since early July. Not saying there’s going to be no lowland snow at all (usually get some even in a Niño winter), just that it will probably be less than an average amount and not stick around for long. A winter that saturates the SW isn't the worst thing in the world. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 warm fall = cold winter cool fall = warm winter ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Sunny in the eastern half of the valley, but some low clouds and patchy fog once you get to Salem. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Just now, Phishy Wx said: warm fall = cold winter cool fall = warm winter ??? Well... 2019 was our 3rd coldest October and coldest fall since 1985, didn’t mean much for winter... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, GobBluth said: A winter that saturates the SW isn't the worst thing in the world. If it happens. I’m more expecting a winter that’s decidedly on the mild and dry side here than I am one that’s on the wet side in the SW. It’s why I said I felt it was going to be such a winter for us. For other regions, not so sure. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 26 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: Our region has been stuck under multi month ridges in the heart of winter for the last 5 years. Yes, and IIRC one of them was a dud El Niño that failed to deliver much-hoped-for moisture in California and the Southwest. Likewise, I think we are now in for a dud La Niña in the PNW. Hopefully that means you get a wet winter. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Wonder what the LRC has to say about our coming winter... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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