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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx

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33 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Eh, one errant AR and you could get like 1.5" in a day despite nothing else all month... And would be pretty easy to get, even (especially) in this ridgy regime. Risky bet on the under!

Happened in January and February this year. Both had very long dry stretches and would have been very dry months if not for one well-placed AR.

Farther south in northern CA foothill and upslope areas that's kinda how winter precip works by default. Sometimes you get 2-3 weeks with nothing and then an AR comes and dumps 5" in two days.

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It turns out 1942 is the best match to the observed weather in a La Nina year at least back to 1895.  I calculated that using hot summer, driest Jul - Oct totals on record, in a La Nina base state.  1974 is the second best match, but didn't have the hot summer.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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20 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

We are going to pay dearly for this stretch of Indian Summer weather that look to persists into at least mid-October. One day closer to an arctic blast!

12z GFS in 9 hours 24 minutes

And one day further from the last one.☹️

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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21 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF - Day 7-10 almost a nice backdoor cool shot as a clipper system dives through Montana. Snowy for Montana and Wyoming! Here we go!

floop-ecmwf_full-2022100300.500h_anom.na.gif

floop-ecmwf_full-2022100300.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_nw.gif

sn10_acc.us_nw.pngsfct.us_nw.png

Kind of lends some support to Phils retrogression theory.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm betting it will be more than 2 weeks before any meaningful rain arrives.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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00z EPS is literally a carbon copy of 1988.

FWIW that was also a strong niña/+QBO with warm extratropics. Interesting.

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A watched pot never boils. The worm will turn. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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If the forecast plays out (it will), we will average around 66 degrees for the first half of October. That's warmer than the average June or September. October averages 55.6.

In 3 days, the average high will be 69 and the average low will be 49. We haven't had a high that low since June 19th or a low that low since May 22nd. Our record streaks of 70+ and 50+ could go on another two weeks. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

If the forecast plays out (it will), we will average around 66 degrees for the first half of October. That's warmer than the average June or September. October averages 55.6.

In 3 days, the average high will be 69 and the average low will be 49. We haven't had a high that low since June 19th or a low that low since May 22nd. Our record streaks of 70+ and 50+ could go on another two weeks. 

 

I’m wondering if we end up with the most anomalously warm month on record. I certainly think it’s on the table. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

This guy beat me into the office this morning. We also had ice fog along the Truckee River which was neat to see. 

SmartSelect_20221003_071642_Gallery.jpg

Tahoe seems like such an awesome place to live.

I have visited countless times.

I am seriously considering a south shore cabin purchase so I can work from home there every winter.

 

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20 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

Tahoe seems like such an awesome place to live.

I have visited countless times.

I am seriously considering a south shore cabin purchase so I can work from home there every winter.

 

If you want an insane amount of snow look out towards Meyers in the North/South upper Truckee neighborhoods. If you want to walk to the water from your house look in the Al Tahoe neighborhood where I live. Prices are starting to come down finally but inventory is really low. Hopefully it will improve by next year. The crowds can get kind of insane but it is an amazing place to live. 

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5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

At this stage, I wouldn’t be surprised it the rainy season holds off until well into November. I also wouldn’t be surprised if it starts in a few weeks, despite the current model consensus.

Our region has been stuck under multi month ridges in the heart of winter for the last 5 years. I would rather we get the 90 day ridge out of the way now and kick off the rainy season in Dec and hopefully it won't shut off till March. The PNW needs a cold front ASAP to put out those stupid lingering fires. If we don't get a snap back in winter from this torching summer/fall we are all in big trouble. 

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9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I thinking first soaking storm in late October, probably be mid/late November for first snow here this year

Get the feeling it will be a “Niña that acts more like a Niño” winter for us, just because conditions have been similar to that in this region since early July. Not saying there’s going to be no lowland snow at all (usually get some even in a Niño winter), just that it will probably be less than an average amount and not stick around for long.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Get the feeling it will be a “Niña that acts more like a Niño” winter for us, just because conditions have been similar to that in this region since early July. Not saying there’s going to be no lowland snow at all (usually get some even in a Niño winter), just that it will probably be less than an average amount and not stick around for long.

A winter that saturates the SW isn't the worst thing in the world.

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Sunny in the eastern half of the valley, but some low clouds and patchy fog once you get to Salem. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Phishy Wx said:

warm fall = cold winter

cool fall = warm winter

 

???

Well... 2019 was our 3rd coldest October and coldest fall since 1985, didn’t mean much for winter...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

A winter that saturates the SW isn't the worst thing in the world.

If it happens. I’m more expecting a winter that’s decidedly on the mild and dry side here than I am one that’s on the wet side in the SW. It’s why I said I felt it was going to be such a winter for us. For other regions, not so sure.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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26 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Our region has been stuck under multi month ridges in the heart of winter for the last 5 years.

Yes, and IIRC one of them was a dud El Niño that failed to deliver much-hoped-for moisture in California and the Southwest. Likewise, I think we are now in for a dud La Niña in the PNW. Hopefully that means you get a wet winter.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Wonder what the LRC has to say about our coming winter...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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