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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx

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Good morning everyone! Iphone weather shows no rain and near 70 for the next week and beyond. That’s really all I need to see at this point. Absolutely surreal to be stuck in this pattern a week into October with no end in site. For the sake of being extremely abnormal, keep it going. Wonder how this is effecting Mt Baker snow cover… glacial melt? 

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3 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Abysmal...

ens_image.php?geoid=135728&var=201&run=0

Legit looks like July. Crazy to have essentially chance of rain thorough 2/3rds of October. And the ridge is parked in the same spot with the same intensity at the end of the run. I think there’s no way we get a pattern change until at least Halloween. This October will change what we thought was climatalogically possible as June, 2021 did. 

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2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Legit looks like July. Crazy to have essentially chance of rain thorough 2/3rds of October. And the ridge is parked in the same spot with the same intensity at the end of the run. I think there’s no way we get a pattern change until at least Halloween. This October will change what we thought was climatalogically possible as June, 2021 did. 

We’ve had many bone dry October’s before. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We’ve had many bone dry October’s before. 

You are minimizing the unusual nature of the situation.  

At SEA... this was the driest July - September ever with .48 total for those 3 months.    Looking at other years with a top tier dry July - September period... it almost always turns wet in October.   

Some examples of October rainfall at SEA following very dry July - September periods:

2017 - 4.80  (0.61)

1967 - 6.66  (0.97)

2012 - 6.71  (1.07)

Also the pattern is unusually stuck in a perpetual ridgy pattern for the foreseeable future as it has been since about the middle of June.     I don't ever remember anything this persistent.  

2002 is the closest example I could find with just 1.10 inches in July - September (5th driest ever) and then just .67 in October.  But that year was much cooler overall compared to this year.    November was also fairly dry in 2002.  

 

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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20 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

How many months have we ever have we had with a temperature anomaly of +10 or even half of that? That’s where we are headed. 

The worm will turn. Even in a rapidly warming climate. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The worm will turn. Even in a rapidly warming climate. 

Maybe so... but we are in unprecedent territory at this point.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe so... but we are in unprecedent territory at this point.  

That’s what you always say. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

You are minimizing the unusual nature of the situation.  

At SEA... this was the driest July - September ever with .48 total for those 3 months.    Looking at other years with a top tier dry July - September period... it almost always turns wet in October.   

Some examples of October rainfall at SEA following very dry July - September periods:

2017 - 4.80  (0.61)

1967 - 6.66  (0.97)

2012 - 6.71  (1.07)

Also the pattern is unusually stuck in a perpetual ridgy pattern for the foreseeable future as it has been since about the middle of June.     I don't ever remember anything this persistent.  

2002 is the closest example I could find with just 1.10 inches in July - September (5th driest ever) and then just .67 in October.  But that year was much cooler overall compared to this year.    November was also fairly dry in 2002.  

 

 

2012 was incredibly noticeable for me because it followed nearly the same script we are experiencing now. The first 15 days of Oct. saw almost no rain, then the last 2 weeks saw some incredible amounts on the daily basis. When we break out of this pattern, it’s not going to be pleasant for those that don’t like rain. Just a matter of when but as Phil alluded to before, I don’t think we’ll break out of it until very late Oct or early Nov. 

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"Mostly dry" doesn't adequately describe what is going on right now. This isn't annoying split flow, or even what you could call a "ridgy period"...

We've had, what, one, maybe two at least partially significant troughs in the last month? Troughs. Two. In a month. That feels almost impossible this time of year. Ridging isn't just the default right now, it is the permanent base state. Stratoform rain can not break through. Fronts die a thousand miles offshore. Cold marine airmasses are being puked out of the Bering sea and being repurposed for maintained baroclinity (and consequently ridging) over the NPac.

As we head later into the month and into early November, even if we don't see a pattern change, there is no way we don't at least see some systems start to break through due to climo. Probably in the form of undercutters, or NW sliders like the potential system next week. This perfect, unblemished ridging is unsustainable this time of year. Push it any further than this, and we'll be getting into some real zany territory, far removed from not only climo, but also previous high water marks for Fall ridging. We're already beginning to right now.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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10 minutes ago, Cloud said:

2012 was incredibly noticeable for me because it followed nearly the same script we are experiencing now. The first 15 days of Oct. saw almost no rain, then the last 2 weeks saw some incredible amounts on the daily basis. When we break out of this pattern, it’s not going to be pleasant for those that don’t like rain. Just a matter of when but as Phil alluded to before, I don’t think we’ll break out of it until very late Oct or early Nov. 

Except August of 2015 was the 3rd wettest ever at SEA.  

SEA also had rain in early September that year and about 1.5 inches during the first 10 days of October in 2015 and finished with 4.81 inches for the month.     

This is already way beyond 2015.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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At the very least it looks like the gaudy temperatures forecast by the GFS have not passed the litmus test. October inversion climo has largely taken the main stage... KSEA has not hit 65F in two days, and judging by the dense cloudcover this morning, it may be made three. As Tim has pointed out, this is actually around or even slightly below normal.

Any even slight pertubations in these warm southerlies completely neuters our ability to mix out low level marine airmasses from the morning. I imagine we have a better shot today through Sunday to clear early and crack 70F, but this is not a given. The sun is definitively weaker now, and it's difficult to get 'hot', even when most other dynamics are in place.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I blame the massive Hunga-Tonga volcanic eruption back in January. 50 million tons of water vapor in the atmosphere. Who knows. Maybe the triple-Nina. Who the heck knows.

12z GFS in 1 hour 18 minutes

Hard not to think this extremely stubborn and unusual pattern is somehow related to the very unusual situation in the stratosphere right now.     

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11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

At the very least it looks like the gaudy temperatures forecast by the GFS have not passed the litmus test. October inversion climo has largely taken the main stage... KSEA has not hit 65F in two days, and judging by the dense cloudcover this morning, it may be made three. As Tim has pointed out, this is actually around or even slightly below normal.

Any even slight pertubations in these warm southerlies completely neuters our ability to mix out low level marine airmasses from the morning. I imagine we have a better shot today through Sunday to clear early and crack 70F, but this is not a given. The sun is definitively weaker now, and it's difficult to get 'hot', even when most other dynamics are in place.

different story over here, near 80 or above for awhile now.  climo is mid 60s for highs and low 60s by next week but temps are still forecast to be in the low 70s.  we're not hitting any daily records yet per se but the persistence of the warmth.  greater than +10 most days is most shocking and its bone dry minus the .5 we got a last week

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Human cause climate change has ripped up the playbook. Blaming Tonga is just another form of denialism. The script has changed, the old playbook is no longer effective. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hard not to think this extremely stubborn and unusual pattern is somehow related to the very unusual situation in the stratosphere right now.     

And, a woolly bear just happened at my place. Massive weather to follow... 🍂🍻

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Nice morning. Upper 40s

8BE602CF-DCFD-4BC9-B575-B97380D97338.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Human cause climate change has ripped up the playbook. Blaming Tonga is just another form of denialism. The script has changed, the old playbook is no longer effective. 

Both can be true.   Saying that there can't be any effect from an unprecedented stratospheric situation because the climate is already warming is sort of silly.    Its obviously way more nuanced than that.     And I am not even saying Tonga is warming the Earth more... I am just speculating that it might be affecting the global patterns.

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7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm going to make a firm prediction we will either be going into abnormal cold or a very wet period by Oct 25.  Historically speaking it would be beyond belief if this pattern went beyond that time frame.

I’m still thinking neither abnormally cold nor abnormally wet (note that this does allow room for it to be cooler and moister than it has been). Well, there may be brief escapades of such weather this winter, but they won’t predominate as the overall story.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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7 hours ago, Cloud said:

I recently kept two house spiders as pets in same container.. 1 big, 1 small. The big one ate the small one for lunch/dinner. I had no idea they cannibalize. 😱

Many species cannibalize their mates. It is why black widows got their name.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Wouldn’t be surprised if the models are too bullish on the amount of clearing we get today through the weekend. These stagnant air masses this time of year can play havoc on the models and the sun angle is too weak to get much mixing. Models were doubtful the fog would make it back here today but it’s back and I doubt we get much clearing before early afternoon.

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17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Human cause climate change has ripped up the playbook. Blaming Tonga is just another form of denialism. The script has changed, the old playbook is no longer effective. 

Sorry, the middle statement is false. The increasing role of human influence does not preclude non-human forms of influence as well. Hunga Tonga could well be playing a role in what we are seeing.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, MV_snow said:

Wouldn’t be surprised if the models are too bullish on the amount of clearing we get today through the weekend. These stagnant air masses this time of year can play havoc on the models and the sun angle is too weak to get much mixing. Models were doubtful the fog would make it back here today but it’s back and I doubt we get much clearing before early afternoon.

FWIW... the low clouds are less extensive today.     But even if the low clouds clear there can still be an inversion effect on temperatures.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Sorry, the middle statement is false. The increasing role of human influence does not preclude non-human forms of influence as well. Hunga Tonga could well be playing a role in what we are seeing.

Exactly.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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35 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Sorry, the middle statement is false. The increasing role of human influence does not preclude non-human forms of influence as well. Hunga Tonga could well be playing a role in what we are seeing.

Tonga was being blamed for unusually cold and wet weather this spring and is now being blamed for unusually hot and dry weather since mid-July. It can’t possibly explain every unusual weather event / unusual temps. But hopefully we will get to know more about the effects on climate soon.

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Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Tonga was being blamed for unusually cold and wet weather this spring and is now being blamed for unusually hot and dry weather since mid-July. It can’t possibly explain every unusual weather event / unusual temps. But hopefully we will get to know more about the effects on climate soon.

No one is saying its to blame for everything.   But it could be impacting the weather.   I think the connection this spring was related to Tonga assisting with the rapid re-development of the Nina which had been fading.    And Nina resurgence seemed to directly impact our local weather in the spring.    Now we are onto something even more unprecedented in terms of extreme weather.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Maybe we'll get 4 La Ninas in a row. That would be something!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm going to make a firm prediction we will either be going into abnormal cold or a very wet period by Oct 25.  Historically speaking it would be beyond belief if this pattern went beyond that time frame.

It's already beyond belief.  Once it's beyond belief anything can happen.

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9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm going to make a firm prediction we will either be going into abnormal cold or a very wet period by Oct 25.  Historically speaking it would be beyond belief if this pattern went beyond that time frame.

We already have late February sun angles. Give it a few weeks and we’ll probably have some fake cold in the valleys with this pattern.

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11 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

It's already beyond belief.  Once it's beyond belief anything can happen.

Fall 1952... Then the worm turned. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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On this date in 1952 Silver Falls had an 89/32 day. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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