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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx

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Very end of the GFS is incredible. Give me that at once please.  

 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 hour ago, Kayla said:

It wasn’t bad in Montana this year thankfully with some well timed rain storms in August and September. I’ve seen ~6” of rainfall since July 1st and some areas have fared quite a bit better than me even. This of course after our record flooding rains in May/June as well. All in all it was a very quiet fire season in Montana.

Yes we indeed got lucky in this part of the state in regards to massive fires except for the handful of  small ones that popped up and got put out fairly quickly.  I have seen a total of 6.90" since July which was much needed and came at just the right time!  I am happy to say that so far this year, I am currently at 14.44" total precip which has already beat last years total precip.  I am curious what this winter has to bring though.... 

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16 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Incredible for who? San Francisco? 

Montana!

Screen Shot 2022-10-08 at 6.36.39 PM.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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5 minutes ago, Clancy MT DW9972 said:

Yes we indeed got lucky in this part of the state in regards to massive fires except for the handful of  small ones that popped up and got put out fairly quickly.  I have seen a total of 6.90" since July which was much needed and came at just the right time!  I am happy to say that so far this year, I am currently at 14.44" total precip which has already beat last years total precip.  I am curious what this winter has to bring though.... 

That is awesome to hear! That is some really healthy and much needed precip totals for you guys. We are at 18.23" on the year currently so things are looking quite good here as well.

Winter looks...promising in Montana and I'll leave it at that!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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The boat is now ready for winter madness…Or at least some fall drizzle if that is ever going to happen? 
75/49 on the day. Currently 63. 

E4ED1C87-AC7D-4AE4-BAF9-420053A278CE.jpeg

E4B95A62-E6D9-4A3E-9144-678820599346.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The worm will turn. Hard. 

55BF9EC7-7B8E-48B2-A649-4D3036CB7CC3.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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13 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

PNA, PDO, Niño 3.4, positive, negative, El Niño, La Niña, volcanic eruptions, blah, blah, blah… it doesn’t matter. All roads lead to ridging, warmth, and drought in the PNW.

It’s like the stock market to me. It goes up 500 points one day and “experts” say it’s due to a good job report. It goes down 500 another and experts say it’s because of a good job report. In other words, nobody knows what the heck is going to happen with weather just like stocks.
 

Analogs and indices are as worthless as the Farmer’s Almanac. We look for patterns and rationale after the fact. We can’t predict sh*t.

 

Yup...we might as well give up even trying to predict the weather. 😮

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Well...The Chikamin Peak snow finger disappeared this year.  It appeared it was a lock to make it through the year early in the summer as the snowpack was way above normal then.

I've been watching that for many years now, and it lasts through the entire year probably about 2/3 of the time.  The peak is visible just east of Snoqualmie Pass, and a deep ravine on the West side of the mountain fills with very deep snow which often makes it through the entire summer.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Latest 85+ day at PDX since 1991. First season the Mariners finished above .500.

It snowed in Western WA before that month was over.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I ended up with 76/47 here today.  The min temps seem to be on a slow decline.  The dp is lower tonight so I'm hoping for 44 or 45.  So exciting right?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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22 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Check this out. One of the neighbor cats who is always super friendly, well this evening he was in my driveway, and as I often have I reached down to pet him. He then lunged up very aggressively biting my hand leaving 3-4 puncture wounds and felt like it was down to the bone in my pinky. No idea what caused him to flip out like that. I could feel the power of his jaws even he shook his head when he did it. I've never felt anything like that. I put peroxide on it immediately, then soap/water, and so far no crazy swelling. I think I got lucky because I know cats have a bunch of bacteria in their mouths and often cat bites can get nasty. I told my cat about it, but she just looked at me, and licked her butt area. Zero cares. Maybe it was a cat hate crime.

Dude, no bueno.  We have a couple of cats, one of whom goes through periodic bouts of not being able to keep food down.  I have to shove a pill down her throat, and if I miss, it is very bitter so it turns her into a foaming drooling mess.  Last time I did it, I missed with the pill and tried to fish it out.  She clamped down on my finger hard, felt her fang on my bone and she bruised my fingernail.  I cleaned it up really good, and waited until the next day to call my doctor.  I got quite a MAJOR lecture from my doctor (who is very chill) and a couple of different nurses.  They were all pissed that I waited as long as I did.  They had me go straight to urgent care and put me on some very potent antibiotics.  They said people have had to have fingers/limbs amputated from cat bites.  The Urgent care doc said "I don't know what it is about cats, but their saliva is NASTY, and their bites, especially deep ones, almost always lead to nasty infections.  That was after getting a lecture from her as well.

If you start getting red streaks up your arm or if the bite location gets really swollen and warm, get to the ER or Urgent care ASAP. Mine got really red, swollen and numb, and really didn't start to improve until the last couple of days of antibiotics.  It took about 2-3 weeks to heal.

 

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22 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Dude, no bueno.  We have a couple of cats, one of whom goes through periodic bouts of not being able to keep food down.  I have to shove a pill down her throat, and if I miss, it is very bitter so it turns her into a foaming drooling mess.  Last time I did it, I missed with the pill and tried to fish it out.  She clamped down on my finger hard, felt her fang on my bone and she bruised my fingernail.  I cleaned it up really good, and waited until the next day to call my doctor.  I got quite a MAJOR lecture from my doctor (who is very chill) and a couple of different nurses.  They were all pissed that I waited as long as I did.  They had me go straight to urgent care and put me on some very potent antibiotics.  They said people have had to have fingers/limbs amputated from cat bites.  The Urgent care doc said "I don't know what it is about cats, but their saliva is NASTY, and their bites, especially deep ones, almost always lead to nasty infections.  That was after getting a lecture from her as well.

If you start getting red streaks up your arm or if the bite location gets really swollen and warm, get to the ER or Urgent care ASAP. Mine got really red, swollen and numb, and really didn't start to improve until the last couple of days of antibiotics.  It took about 2-3 weeks to heal.

 

That is awful man! I did some research last night and was surprised how easy and often people develop nasty infections. So far so good with no swelling or redness. No fever or flu-like symptoms. My pinky and side of my hand is sore, but I think I'm going to be alright. (y) I'm watching it closely.

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Spent all day outside working on the deck, getting down to the last few hours work.  We have to finish the railing on the stairs and put a closeout panel around the deck beams, then its time to bust out the paint gun and shoot a coat of paint on it.  As much as I want it to rain, I am kinda glad it has held off as we have run into several delays getting this project done. 

 

Very hazy throughout the day with periods of the campfire smell, but it sounds like it was much worse down south.

IMG_4638.jpg

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

That is awful man! I did some research last night and was surprised how easy and often people develop nasty infections. So far so good with no swelling or redness. No fever or flu-like symptoms. My pinky and side of my hand is sore, but I think I'm going to be alright. (y) I'm watching it closely.

I'll give you the same advice my wife often gives me:  "Don't be a GUY about this!!"  And in fact, she said those very words to me when I got bit.  After that experience, I now wear leather gloves when administering medication  to the cat (she actually has gotten sick once since the bite incident).  She bit and chomped away on my fingers and I didn't feel anything.  😁

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This current stagnant pattern with ridging dominating week after week kind of reminds me of other stagnant patterns with some Ninos during the heart of Winter where we are dry and warmer than average for over a month and stuck in in split flow inside ~140 W seemingly forever. Better now than in December-January though.

00z ECMWF in 16 minutes

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On 10/7/2022 at 5:15 PM, Cloud said:

Today is the 5th day with 70+ for the high at SEA. 4 of these were well above 70 to near 80 (78, 80, 78, 77).  

Saturday and Sunday will likely get SEA’s its 6th and 7th 70+, which will be 1 shy of the record (8) for Oct. This month still gots a long way to go and will most likely crush this record. 

PDX tied the most 80+ degree days in October today at 6. Tomorrow they will get to 7 to set a new record. Then the forecast is 80-82 this Thu-Sat. Could possibly get to 10 80+ degree days by next Saturday. That would be simply remarkable. 

7DayForecast-13.jpg.2d67e9fef47d68f9ec949cba358f4476.jpg

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7 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

PDX tied the most 80+ degree days in October today at 6. Tomorrow they will get to 7 to set a new record. Then the forecast is 80-82 this Thu-Sat. Could possibly get to 10 80+ degree days by next Saturday. That would be simply remarkable. 

7DayForecast-13.jpg.2d67e9fef47d68f9ec949cba358f4476.jpg

I suppose I should hold off on the garlic planting?

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Nice finish to the GFS, and the GEFS continues to look better.  Maybe...just maybe.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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At least the record high that was set in Portland today broke a record from a very good year.  1971.  Another case of a multi year Nina with +QBO.  And oh yeah....it snowed later than month in many places.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Wouldn't that be crazy if we transitioned from ridgezilla to retrogression and Winter pattern. I rule out nothing as wacky as things are. I'm dreaming of a White Pumpkin!

A reversal is just as likely as going into a more traditional wet pattern.  Quite a few years that set record highs in a La Nina autumn go on to have abnormal cold a bit later.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Well...The Chikamin Peak snow finger disappeared this year.  It appeared it was a lock to make it through the year early in the summer as the snowpack was way above normal then.

I've been watching that for many years now, and it lasts through the entire year probably about 2/3 of the time.  The peak is visible just east of Snoqualmie Pass, and a deep ravine on the West side of the mountain fills with very deep snow which often makes it through the entire summer.

It was there in mid-September when i went over the pass. A victim to the absurd blocking regime we are in. Somehow there's still a smattering of snow on Gunn Peak. I think, ironically, that it's holding because the smoke in the area is so dense it's not letting the area heat up.

Keep in mind, last year all of the snow on Gunn Peak was gone by August.

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Wow!  Top 3 analogs on today's 6 to 10 day outlook were 1971, 1962, and 1978.  All winters featured major Arctic outbreaks.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

It was there in mid-September when i went over the pass. A victim to the absurd blocking regime we are in. Somehow there's still a smattering of snow on Gunn Peak. I think, ironically, that it's holding because the smoke in the area is so dense it's not letting the area heat up.

Keep in mind, last year all of the snow on Gunn Peak was gone by August.

Yup.  I saw it then too.  I guess I'm not the only one that looks for such things.

You could be right about the smoke with Gunn Peak.  I remember in 2020 it held the temps down an insane amount on a few days.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks they issued an air stagnation advisory now.  Lovely.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Dude, no bueno.  We have a couple of cats, one of whom goes through periodic bouts of not being able to keep food down.  I have to shove a pill down her throat, and if I miss, it is very bitter so it turns her into a foaming drooling mess.  Last time I did it, I missed with the pill and tried to fish it out.  She clamped down on my finger hard, felt her fang on my bone and she bruised my fingernail.  I cleaned it up really good, and waited until the next day to call my doctor.  I got quite a MAJOR lecture from my doctor (who is very chill) and a couple of different nurses.  They were all pissed that I waited as long as I did.  They had me go straight to urgent care and put me on some very potent antibiotics.  They said people have had to have fingers/limbs amputated from cat bites.  The Urgent care doc said "I don't know what it is about cats, but their saliva is NASTY, and their bites, especially deep ones, almost always lead to nasty infections.  That was after getting a lecture from her as well.

If you start getting red streaks up your arm or if the bite location gets really swollen and warm, get to the ER or Urgent care ASAP. Mine got really red, swollen and numb, and really didn't start to improve until the last couple of days of antibiotics.  It took about 2-3 weeks to heal.

 

Same. Got bit and scratched by our loveable house cat. Horrible infection set in. Happened during the first peak of Covid so I didn't want to go in. Finally went in after fever hit hard. Gruesome and painful. Very sick for 2-3 weeks. None fun.

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1 minute ago, rsktkr said:

Same. Got bit and scratched by our loveable house cat. Horrible infection set in. Happened during the first peak of Covid so I didn't want to go in. Finally went in after fever hit hard. Gruesome and painful. Very sick for 2-3 weeks. None fun.

How long after you were bit did you develop a fever and infection?

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