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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx

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The ECMWF suite of models is much sharper with the upcoming trough than the GFS.  The ECMWF PNA forecast is at -5 for day 10.  That is hard core.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Smoke is coming back again. 

Yup.  It's already back here too. 🤢

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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ECMWF and GFS are both going well over 80 for SEA on Sunday.  Totally insane.

On a more fall like note it dropped to 42 here this morning.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I have a bit of an off topic thing here.  The last few days I've heard pickleball mentioned a number of times so I looked into what all the hoopla is about.  The first thing that caught my eye is it was invented in Bainbridge Island in 1965.  Now for some reason it is exploding worldwide nearly 60 years later!  Talk about slow to catch on.  Really odd.

For those who didn't know it is now the state sport in WA.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF suite of models is much sharper with the upcoming trough than the GFS.  The ECMWF PNA forecast is at -5 for day 10.  That is hard core.

The GEFS has had a consistent group of members that come in sharp like the Euro ones but 18z has noticeably less than the last several runs have had. 

511226890_ens_image(5).png.aa203a28dfc73fed2624fea6d461892a.png

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25 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

500h_anom.na.png

That's a Trough with a capital T

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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26 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Amazing day over in Yellowstone/Grand Teton. Still got another full day of exploring tomorrow on the north side of the park. 

73C57D9E-9F36-4E9A-B63B-D48D2D1E84C4.jpeg

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98C5C923-81F3-4FEB-9C4E-60E98415FE95.jpeg

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9D8F23F1-602C-4DC0-9CCC-0A920ED75095.jpeg

You may have picked the best week of the year to visit. Literally perfect weather.

  • Like 3

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 hours ago, fubario said:

Last couple sentences from latest Seattle NWS long term discussion...

there are indications that a
substantive pattern change is in the offing just beyond the
current window of the long term forecast. Models ensembles are
nearly unanimous with this idea now. 27

It will probably turn out to be summer!  It's coming back!!! :P 

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20 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

You may have picked the best week of the year to visit. Literally perfect weather.

It’s been extremely nice. Super clear weather with great visibility and there’s not nearly as many people as I thought there would be here even in mid October. Have had 0 traffic problems outside of a couple construction areas and no problems getting into sites with too many people visiting. Several people told me they’ve been in the park during peak season and it just ruins it with big traffic jams and hundreds of people trying to park and see different sites. Based on those stories I’d never come here May 15th-September 15th.

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1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Amazing day over in Yellowstone/Grand Teton. Still got another full day of exploring tomorrow on the north side of the park. 

73C57D9E-9F36-4E9A-B63B-D48D2D1E84C4.jpeg

5C8E1704-C230-4821-8662-D8C8384410D2.jpeg

CEDEB615-F025-4F28-8AED-AB9F3FAB8776.jpeg

D6D3DF9A-869D-46E5-9F58-119B1FBDCF12.jpeg

3674499D-AEDD-4A76-BB63-4F0D56095269.jpeg

98C5C923-81F3-4FEB-9C4E-60E98415FE95.jpeg

578FBB16-4A55-4676-92AB-D69120C7B15B.jpeg

D5328826-B207-4873-ABC8-1BD764DF1A47.jpeg

11162DA9-37DB-4C4E-AB23-1ED64EF24CF3.jpeg

9D8F23F1-602C-4DC0-9CCC-0A920ED75095.jpeg

Awesome pictures! You really lucked out with the weather. This week has been gorgeous fall weather!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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All I can say right now is that I am SO glad the worst of this ridging regime is occuring now, and not at the end of July or anywhere around the heart of the Summer.

Had it worked out that way, would it have been shocking to see 10+ consecutive days in the 90s at KSEA? I think that could have been a real possibility.

  • Like 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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15 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s been extremely nice. Super clear weather with great visibility and there’s not nearly as many people as I thought there would be here even in mid October. Have had 0 traffic problems outside of a couple construction areas and no problems getting into sites with too many people visiting. Several people told me they’ve been in the park during peak season and it just ruins it with big traffic jams and hundreds of people trying to park and see different sites. Based on those stories I’d never come here May 15th-September 15th.

Ahh you figured out the locals secret! Late September through closing is always the best time to visit. You can see a wide range of weather conditions but you definitely picked a good week this year!

  • Like 1

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

All I can say right now is that I am SO glad the worst of this ridging regime is occuring now, and not at the end of July or anywhere around the heart of the Summer.

Had it worked out that way, would it have been shocking to see 10+ consecutive days in the 90s at KSEA? I think that could have been a real possibility.

Summer really could not have turned out any worse regardless...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Summer really could not have turned out any worse regardless...

I think in the coming decades we will come to find it gets much, much worse than that.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I think in the coming decades we will come to find it gets much, much worse than that.

That would be shocking.  Keep in mind this region has shown about the largest increase in summer temps on the globe.  There is much more to it than just the current global warming regime.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, T-Town said:

A little bit if fall color here in Boston but still a few days away from really being good. Our office is a couple blocks from Boston Common so it’s been easy to get over here a couple times a day and get some steps in. The park is nice and filled with people enjoying the sunny afternoons. 

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Pretty surprising it's still that green there with all of the cold troughs they've had.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty surprising it's still that green there with all of the cold troughs they've had.

I thought things would be further along. This is in the heart of the city though which no doubt keeps temps up and delays the fall colors. 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

The Northeast Entrance and Lamar valley is closed but everything else is fully functional. Pretty good turnaround from a biblical flood just 4 months ago. According to the park 93% of the roads are open. 

Wow, that’s impressive. 

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In the meantime, while we wait for fall to arrive, what’s being shown for Sunday is absolutely remarkable. Not only will we be dealing with the latest 80F ever but it’ll also destroy the daily record of 72F from 1946 by a good 10+ degrees. There are models support for this ridiculousness with the 80s. 

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9 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

80 burger?

Yes, but this is for PDX hitting the 40s for the first time since May. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 hours ago, Phil said:

It looks like my grandmother is going to pass today. She fell & broke her hip/shoulder over the weekend, and never really recovered from the anesthesia post-surgery. Am really appreciating the value of family and human life today.

My condolences to you and your family Phil. 🙏 

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