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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx

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This pattern change is gonna slam into us right during the UCLA at Oregon game. I think GameDay will be there too.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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06z GFS. NOT GOOD

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Ensemble still looks good. Operational is shit.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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13 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Not really. Awfully dry for what is supposed to be our big pattern change. Each of the last 4 runs have gotten progressively drier. 

Figures. We are still looking at a mid November timeline for meaningful change. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The Euro and GEM still look good. I don't like the trend on the operational and ensemble GFS though. 

Gfs typically leads the way. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It truly boggles the mind to think about how anomalously warm this month is going to end up. And that’s even if we manage to get a cool down closer to average the last ten days, which still looks iffy at best. 

The endless 80s this week and last are basically rewriting the record book and redefining what is possible climatologically the first half of October.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It truly boggles the mind to think about how anomalously warm this month is going to end up. And that’s even if we manage to get a cool down closer to average the last ten days, which still looks iffy at best. 

The endless 80s this week and last are basically rewriting the record book and redefining what is possible climatologically the first half of October.

Could break the monthly record by 2-3F. Most anomalously warm month of all time. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gfs typically leads the way. 

I know some people scoff at that, but I genuinely believe it. The GFS is underestimated. Yea, the operational run 10+ days out can produce some whacky solutions, but for forecasting overall emerging patterns, it is the king in my experience.

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I'm getting a tad worried about the trends on the GFS / GEFS.  Hopefully the ECMWF will continue to hold its ground.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

Almost ready! 

20221012_173330.jpg

I have harvested over 100 jalapenos from 4 plants this year and they are still flowering!

Habaneros are still producing, although I have only picked about 4 dozen from 2 plants. Should have a couple dozen more by the weekend.

Added a handful to some razor clam chowder last night....so good!

Need the clam digging season to open up down here though. My freezer is getting low.

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Yeah, it sucks seeing that scary big red blob reappear on the 500mb height maps, but keep in mind that our sfc conditions respond differently to those patterns around Oct 25th than they do in Sept, or even today. Especially with the incredibly warm air aloft we have right now having been long kicked out of the region by then.

Instead of 70s and 80s throughout the region it is 50s and 60s. Big improvement. Still want more RAIN though! ...Maybe even SNOW

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Now that it appears this big pattern shift is dying what's next? 

Feels like we are entering uncharted territory and we could be looking at something truly remarkable and awful.

All-time record warm/dry fall and winter type stuff and then right back to all-time record warm/dry spring and summer 2023.

At the very least I think it's a valid concern at this point. Seems super ominous and a cause for concern if you as me.

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I wish I could say that. I'm lucky in some ways and very unlucky in others. I've lived a rather peculiar life to say the least. Dirt poor and disabled yet schmoozed with lots of wealthy or even famous people cuz I was welcomed into a rich kid frat while racking up tens of thousands in student debt.

But I still did get my degree so there's that. My choice was Oregon or Oklahoma (out of state) and in retrospect I wouldn't have made it getting a BS in meteorology at Oklahoma because the math would've been beyond my level. 

A BA in geography from U of O is still fine.

I grew up on the east coast in the Carolinas.  I was going to go to either UNC - Asheville, North Carolina State or Florida State for Meteorology instead I settled on staying in state and getting a BS in Geography from South Carolina. However I did take some Meteorology and Climatology classes and interned for 3 years at the South Carolina State Climatology office and the Southeast Regional Climate Center which at that time were in Columbia, SC near the University.  After college I volunteered to be a Winter Intern (and got picked on a phone interview, which was foreign in 1997) at the Mt Washington Observatory in New Hampshire and worked on a Rime Ice study up there for NCAR and the FAA amongst lots of grunt work cleaning the building and shoveling snow.  it was pretty cool and awesome weather wise (learned how to take official wx obs and experienced much extreme wx, frequent 100mph+ winds and blizzards).  But I never got the Meteorology degree because of the Math.  Pursued a career in GIS instead and now work in software sales

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10 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

Now that it appears this big pattern shift is dying what's next? 

Feels like we are entering uncharted territory and we could be looking at something truly remarkable and awful.

All-time record warm/dry fall and winter type stuff and then right back to all-time record warm/dry spring and summer 2023.

At the very least I think it's a valid concern at this point. Seems super ominous and a cause for concern if you as me.

 

 

 

Back to the Drawing Board!!!

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

40 in the valley and 58 here this morning... pretty strong inversion and temperature difference across a couple miles.

Love that stuff. Tied the season low of 44F at my place this morning. Judging by WeatherBell maps, there is a small cold pocket around Meadowbrook pond down to 41F. I believe it... I've experienced local cold pockets walking in that area around this time of morning, year round. Would be the coldest spot in Seattle proper by a mile.

KSEA down to 49F again. Third straight night into the 40s. Fall starting to cut its teeth through this ridging, bit by bit.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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A chilly 46F this morning. I wonder what the overnight low was. It's almost cold enough to use the heater but we won't since it will warm up later.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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8 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

52º for a low here. Just about average for July.

Cliff Mass says, "This fall has been wonderfully warm and dry in the Northwest," with "plenty of sun and perfect temperatures," but sadly, "all good things must end."

He must be delighted at the trend on the last few GFS runs!

He is such a piece of sh*t.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

As soon as @Rubus Leucodermis caved we should have known we were done for

I was being cautiously optimistic and never said anything was sure or even likely when it came to a pattern change. No surprise that the rug is getting pulled.

As I wrote several days ago, the models just don’t understand how RR an R can be, and are reverting to climo in the clown range. It will only be meaningful once it gets within about five days.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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14 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

52º for a low here. Just about average for July.

Cliff Mass says, "This fall has been wonderfully warm and dry in the Northwest," with "plenty of sun and perfect temperatures," but sadly, "all good things must end."

He must be delighted at the trend on the last few GFS runs!

This Fall didn't seem all too different from 2020 there (just without an extreme east wind event).

So what was good about that? 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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6 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

This Fall didn't seem all too different from 2020 there (just without an extreme east wind event).

So what was good about that? 

We did have an east wind not nearly as extreme early in the month. Skies were covered with thick smoke during that.

However I think this fall has been hotter than 2020 so far and the smoke has lasted longer overall since we still haven't had really any rain yet.

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3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

We did have an east wind not nearly as extreme early in the month. Skies were covered with thick smoke during that.

However I think this fall has been hotter than 2020 so far and the smoke has lasted longer overall since we still haven't had really any rain yet.

Looked like there has been only 2 or 3 measurable rainfall days at the place I left since 9/1. Pretty dry.

Late October can surprise. There was around 2.5" rainfall from 10/22 to 11/2 last year in KFalls. I hope that pattern change works out for you guys. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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45 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

52º for a low here. Just about average for July.

Cliff Mass says, "This fall has been wonderfully warm and dry in the Northwest," with "plenty of sun and perfect temperatures," but sadly, "all good things must end."

He must be delighted at the trend on the last few GFS runs!

"And the warmth has reduced the need for heating, which helps reduce global warming."

I thought this was a pretty strange point to make. And he also says "winter" is starting when we're probably just going to see regular fall rains which was also a weird thing to say.

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57 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently 47 and heavy stenchy smoke. 

East wind has cleared it all out down here.  It looks like the wind is pushing it up that way from Everett northward.

20221013_091325.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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