October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Anti Marine Layer]

Not a good day to fire up a stogie outside today if you're in the wilderness. The funny thing is some people smoke to overcome the depression caused by smoky skies from a fire. 

[Doinko]

90 at SLE! At 2pm on October 15th.

89 at Aurora, 88 at Tillamook, 87 at Vancouver, 86 at PDX.

[Anti Marine Layer]

52 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It hasn’t gotten a lot of buzz around here, but before we finally get this supposed cool down, another round of record highs is looking likely for the middle of next week too.

Wish you were here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

90 at SLE! At 2pm on October 15th.

89 at Aurora, 88 at Tillamook, 87 at Vancouver, 86 at PDX.

Insane 

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Insane 

Most forecasts were saying Salem wouldn't approach their record high of 89 from 1901, and now they've gone up to 90 at only 2pm.

[Deweydog]

Latest 80+ on record for Astoria. (10/10/91)

[Cascadia_Wx]

19 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Wish you were here.

Wish you weren’t here 

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Latest 80+ on record for Astoria. (10/10/91)

1991  

 

78F here. A bit smoky out there. 

[Blizzard777]

Remember boys and girls to chew your air

This is just terrible 69*

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Remember boys and girls to chew your air

This is just terrible 69*

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The worm will turn.  

[Kolk1604]

[Meatyorologist]

[Doinko]

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I like the GFS ensemble member that gives a snow depth of 0.4" to Portland from the 25th to the 26th

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

I like the GFS ensemble member that gives a snow depth of 0.4" to Portland from the 25th to the 26th

lol, endless summer while also contending with outside snow chances within 10 days. yep.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Michael Snyder says “it is now out of fantasy land.”

 

[Phishy Wx]

looks like some of you on the westside need to install AC.

[Phishy Wx]

74 here, light NE breeze

[NWbyNW]

Let's take a peak out of the Faithlife Webcam in Bellingham.  Looking pretty brown out there.  The entire Puget Sound is unhealthy to hazardous air conditions depending on location.  Winds from the strait are blowing SE and there is also winds blowing E from Eastern WA.  Smoke is also blowing up from Oregon into Washington as well.  In the long run winds will shift NE, this will hopefully clear skies some, but that isn't guaranteed 

There is some relief along coastal areas of the northern Puget Sound.  There is also a "convergence" zone if you will of cleaner ocean air hitting against hazardous smoke from Bolt Creek and Darrington. In this area pictured below, clean wind is actually still blowing in from the straight and hitting smoke moving east.  This ocean air is blowing that nasty smoke south deeper into Seattle and the Puget Sound and is effectively creating a cleaner zone around Mukilteo. It creates these massive shift zones that vary from moderate air of 63 AQI in Mukilteo, 70 in Everett, and hazardous air nearby in Marysville and Lake Stevens at 262.  The air around Lake Stevens is stagnating or being pushed further south only to eventually blow back NE when winds shift.  It's a rollercoaster for sure.

 

 

Now for some AQI data around the region.

 

Bellingham - 60

Everett - 73

Seattle - 153

Bellevue - 178

Tacoma - 157

Vancouver - 39

Wenatchee - 145

Kennwick - 54

Spokane - 53

Portland - 55

Salem - 67

Eugene - 109

Roseburg - 152

Medford - 70

[TacomaWx]

72/48 in Tacoma today. 

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like Victoria YYJ may have broken their daily record by 10F.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

56 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Cloud said:

SEA’s up to 73 with visibility of 3 miles at 2pm. And I’ve got the fans running with all the windows closed due to the smell of smoke. Its 10th 70+ for the month. 

It actually feels a bit uncomfortable outside at 74 degrees here.  The thing that amazes me is the fact this temp is with an inversion!

[Doinko]

92 at SLE. Wow

[Doinko]

Air quality isn't that bad here, 53 according to Airnow.gov

[snow_wizard]

46 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Michael Snyder says “it is now out of fantasy land.”

 

I usually figure if the point of no return is within 5 days it's pretty real.  That of course means when the pattern is in a configuration that historically is almost certain to result in the desired outcome.

[Doinko]

89/38 in Corvallis so far. 51 diurnal range!

[Omegaraptor]

15 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

92 at SLE. Wow

It feels completely alien. Doesn't feel like I'm even in the Northwest, it feels like lowland CA or AZ

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS totally caved to EURO, and now the GEFS is looking chilly more like the EPS.

00z GFS in 3 hours 57 minutes

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 7 minutes

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Pepto for the cascades

I’m in the blue! (But it’s probably just terrain bleed.)

[TT-SEA]

Been watching the Mariners from Husky stadium...

[selkirks]

28 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

It feels completely alien. Doesn't feel like I'm even in the Northwest, it feels like lowland CA or AZ

The comparison to northern California (places like San José or Salinas) is extremely apt this fall. Super warm with cool mornings, and almost no fall color like usual. Almost a Mediterranean feel. 

[Requiem]

Really gusty here-- interesting that models have the strongest winds for the Cascades and foothill areas in the early morning hours.

[snow_wizard]

I'm thinking the first round will be relatively dry, and then gradually evolve into a wetter pattern.  The initial shot could bring some impressive min temps if the details pan out right.

It does appear the first round will have at least some rain though.

[HoodCanalBridge]

Can barely see Seattle from the ferry docked in Bainbridge!

[Phishy Wx]

16 minutes ago, selkirks said:

The comparison to northern California (places like San José or Salinas) is extremely apt this fall. Super warm with cool mornings, and almost no fall color like usual. Almost a Mediterranean feel. 

indeed, when living in the Santa Cruz Mtns I remember some 95/43 days in October.  Off shore flow super warm.

 

also I remember a 106/53 or something stupid in Santa Cruz proper

[NWbyNW]

Conditions by the fires have actually improved a tiny bit in Washington.  For example, Index, Monroe near the Bolt Creek Fire are seeing the cleanest air they've seen in awhile.  The fires just belched some smoke and it should be good for a little while.  Meanwhile in the lowland, the majority of the Puget Sound is unhealthy air with some okay areas near the Sound.

Contions around Eugene are improving, but the fires just belched out new smoke, so it may cause conditions to deteriorate going into the evening hours.  Winds have begun their overall shift NE. 

[Phishy Wx]

Drunk Uncle seems mild

[Anti Marine Layer]

Still up in the air

[Gradient Keeper]

21 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Conditions by the fires have actually improved a tiny bit in Washington.  For example, Index, Monroe near the Bolt Creek Fire are seeing the cleanest air they've seen in awhile.  The fires just belched some smoke and it should be good for a little while.  Meanwhile in the lowland, the majority of the Puget Sound is unhealthy air with some okay areas near the Sound.

Contions around Eugene are improving, but the fires just belched out new smoke, so it may cause conditions to deteriorate going into the evening hours.  Winds have begun their overall shift NE. 

Some improvement here and there. It hasn't been bad at all here near west Gresham. Thanks for all of the updates on the fire smoke and air quality.

00z GFS in 2 hours 34 minutes