October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[SilverFallsAndrew]

38 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

This month has been very similar to October 1952. MSP had a 32/23 day on 10/16/1952.

 

Hmmm maybe we’ll see some cold lows in November. Lol

[SnowWillarrive]

8 minutes ago, Seattle said:

Uh already 72 at KSEA... How high will the mercury go?

I can’t wait for today to end. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

13 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Not really, since I actually live very close to Lake O. It also doesn’t explain why pdx is cooler and that is much closer to the gorge. Not sure. Didn’t expect to be so warm this morning. 

At this point in the season I think a lot of it is terrain driven. PDX is in a low spot compared to Tigard which has some higher hills around it to help keep things mixed. Even though PDX lis closer to the gorge inversions are favored along the Columbia River. The wind will just keep blowing up above it as things decouple. This is at least how I understand it.

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

At this point in the season I think a lot of it is terrain driven. PDX is in a low spot compared to Tigard which has some higher hills around it to help keep things mixed. Even though PDX lis closer to the gorge inversions are favored along the Columbia River. The wind will just keep blowing up above it as things decouple. This is at least how I understand it.

That makes sense. Being low along the river has kept pdx in the inversion so far this morning. 
 

All the way up to 75 here.

9 degrees warmer than pdx currently. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Totally bizarre seeing low clouds moving inland while east winds are still blowing here.  This pattern is beyond belief.

wxloop vis1km_color 12 (washington.edu)

We had thunder and rain last night all atop a very deep marine layer.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Arctic Blast #2!

Some of these model solutions are just straight up extreme as far as blocking is concerned.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

We had thunder and rain last night all atop a very deep marine layer.

You guys scoring rain before us is just another weird occurrence.  

[snow_wizard]

48 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

This month has been very similar to October 1952. MSP had a 32/23 day on 10/16/1952.

 

1952 was a really cold year though.  Really hard to call it an analog.

[Anti Marine Layer]

37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Someone just post this pic on the NB Facebook page... from downtown North Bend.

This is what California usually sees in the middle of October. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

This is what California usually sees in the middle of October. 

I told people that these warmer and drier conditions would keep creeping north…

Winter will still be fun tho.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS spits out some surprising rain totals given the look of the 500mb pattern with the cold shots.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This morning's low was an absurd 73 degrees here.  I'm thinking a midnight low tonight!

Crazy. That’s within 2˚F of my high temperature yesterday.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I told people that these warmer and drier conditions would keep creeping north…

Winter will still be fun tho.

There is something much more complex at play this year than any expected climate change would account for.  It's just plain whacked out.  The latter part of the month will be quite a dramatic change.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Crazy. That’s within 2˚F of my high temperature yesterday.

The amazing thing is it was 42 yesterday and will probably be similar tomorrow.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We made it down to 41F. Nice night. Not sure how we were so much colder. It can often be the other way around, especially in Arctic events since 2017.

[Doinko]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Some of these model solutions are just straight up extreme as far as blocking is concerned.

Another big Aleutian block in the clown range

[TT-SEA]

81 in North Bend at 10 a.m.

[awright-31]

10-15-2022 Obs for MBY - first report of the season.

Max temp - 76* recorded at 1445
Min temp - 39* recorded at 0645

Precip - 0.00"
Monthly precip to date - 0.00" 
(0% of monthy normal)

Notes: Unseasonably warm. Unhealthy AQI.

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We made it down to 41F. Nice night. Not sure how we were so much colder. It can often be the other way around, especially in Arctic events since 2017.

Just going out on a limb but it probably wasn’t windy there?

[MossMan]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

81 in North Bend at 10 a.m.

Up to 64 here! Smoke is terrible. 

[Phishy Wx]

35 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Arctic Blast #2!

Awww Isn't it cute.  A little micro blast

[Doinko]

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Doiinko said:

Looks like this run turns pretty nasty again.

[Phishy Wx]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

There is something much more complex at play this year than any expected climate change would account for.  It's just plain whacked out.  The latter part of the month will be quite a dramatic change.

did you hear about that massive volcanic eruption back in January in the South Pacific that blasted a bunch of water into the Stratosphere?

 

yea, that was something

[MossMan]

Ahh yes…The big windstorm flop…I was nearly at Jim level mad when the forecast busted. 

[snow_wizard]

With drier air in place now it could crash pretty hard tonight with favorable / weak pressure gradients setting in.  I don't think I've ever seen 80s during the day and then below 50 by midnight before.  Could happen.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

With drier air in place now it could crash pretty hard tonight with favorable / weak pressure gradients setting in.  I don't think I've ever seen 80s during the day and then below 50 by midnight before.  Could happen.

I will say, you’ve gotten pretty good at putting a silver lining on a burning pile of trash  

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like this run turns pretty nasty again.

Obviously the pattern is about to crash again with that enormous block to the NW though.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I will say, you’ve gotten pretty good at putting a silver lining on a burning pile of trash  

This is undeniably interesting though.  Historic all the way.  Knowing we have a major pattern change almost here helps also.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well... long range GFS was terrible. NEXT!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Checking on inciweb this morning, it’s pretty impressive how many fires are burning in the Cascades north of I-90. That area seemed mostly immune to the many fires in SW Washington and points south the last several years. Looks like this latest run of heat and drought is finally catching up with them.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

did you hear about that massive volcanic eruption back in January in the South Pacific that blasted a bunch of water into the Stratosphere?

 

yea, that was something

The thing is none of the stuff in the stratosphere has made it anywhere near this far north.  Good chance it set off some kind of a complicated chain reaction though.

BTW...still no sign of the warming people had feared from this.  SH is still -0.2.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is undeniably interesting though.  Historic all the way.  Knowing we have a major pattern change almost here helps also.

I’m sorry man, but it feels like you say something like this almost every year.

[selkirks]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Checking on inciweb this morning, it’s pretty impressive how many fires are burning in the Cascades north of I-90. That area seemed mostly immune to the many fires in SW Washington and points south the last several years. Looks like this latest run of heat and drought is finally catching up with them.

Well, it's also important to note that the wet spring probably played a bit of a role. Lots of fuel growth in the spring, then a record-dry summer...doesn't lead to good fire outcomes.

[FroYoBro]

Looks like PDX is starting to join the party. Gone up about 10 degrees in the last hour. 

[HoodCanalBridge]

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, selkirks said:

Well, it's also important to note that the wet spring probably played a bit of a role. Lots of fuel growth in the spring, then a record-dry summer...doesn't lead to good fire outcomes.

This makes zero sense. The wet spring this year was one of the few things that helped mitigate the fire season from being as bad as it could have. Can you imagine how insanely dry things would be right now if we hadn’t had the wet spring? There’s going to be lots of fuel growth on the west side of the North Cascades every year no matter what. 

Edited October 16, 2022 by Cascadia_Wx

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

This is undeniably interesting though.  Historic all the way.  Knowing we have a major pattern change almost here helps also.

I’m kind of over historic warmth as of august 2021... or maybe September 2020, or perhaps July 2018, September 2017, so on and so forth. 

[selkirks]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This makes zero sense. The wet spring this year was one of the few things that helped mitigate the fire season from being as bad as it could have. Can you imagine how insanely dry things would be right now if we hadn’t had the wet spring?

It's just what the experts say! Of course, aside from a few high-impact fires, this fire season was much improved over the past few years.

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The thing is none of the stuff in the stratosphere has made it anywhere near this far north.  Good chance it set off some kind of a complicated chain reaction though.

BTW...still no sign of the warming people had feared from this.  SH is still -0.2.

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/#:~:text=The January eruption of Hunga,cooling of the southern stratosphere.

 

Stratospheric cooling can lead to lower level warming.  It's happened already in the Southern Hemisphere in relation to the eruption and most likely in the process of spreading North and/or at least influencing Synoptic patterns in the Northern Hemisphere