October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, Kolk1604 said:

Not as wet as the Euro though

Yeah, although the GFS continues to move towards the EURO, it's still not as wet or white for the mountains.

00z ECMWF in 3 hours 57 minutes

[bainbridgekid]

It’s 7 PM on October 16th in Everett, WA and my Air Conditioning just kicked on. Never imagined I’d write that sentence in my life. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

 

Wow. That’s a lot of leaves. When I left my house last Sunday we had pretty much no fall color yet. Will be interesting to see what things look like tomorrow. 

[snow_wizard]

30 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Epic marine push!

Still a 30 degree drop in a few hours.  Most people would call that impressive.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 hours ago, Doiinko said:

Very cold anomalies by day 10. The cold season is coming in with a bang this year.

[snow_wizard]

24 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

 

Nicely done!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Very cold anomalies by day 10. The cold season is coming in with a bang this year.

People might say you're nuts for talking like that.  Really weird vibe on here lately.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah, although the GFS continues to move towards the EURO, it's still not as wet or white for the mountains.

00z ECMWF in 3 hours 57 minutes

I'm not sure what to think about the precip on the ECMWF.  There's an awful of high pressure over the NE Pacific to support those big precip totals.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow. That’s a lot of leaves. When I left my house last Sunday we had pretty much no fall color yet. Will be interesting to see what things look like tomorrow. 

Or in a couple of weeks....

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Very cold anomalies by day 10. The cold season is coming in with a bang this year.

Yup yup 850s reflect this. 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Still a 30 degree drop in a few hours.  Most people would call that impressive.

It is a massive drop. Combination of an incredibly warm air mass and a significant reversal. They had westerlies gusting to 35 mph. 

[snow_wizard]

Already down to last night's low here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Or in a couple of weeks....

Well I’m just saying I will have been gone 8 days so it will be interesting to see if there is a big difference. I was gone from late September to mid October last year and the difference was night and day. We also had a freeze in early October last year and highs in the upper 40s.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Currently 60˚F after a max of 75. Gonna be a while before I hit last night's low.

Air quality is not so great here but not as bad is it is closer to the mountains. Those were not even visible this afternoon. Ugh.

[BLI snowman]

Down to 64 here. 21 degree drop since 5pm.

[Cascadia_Wx]

45 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

This weekend definitely ended up with a June 2021 vibe to it.

Good catch.

[MossMan]

50’s! Currently 59. 

[Cloud]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Down to 64 here. 21 degree drop since 5pm.

Region wide! 
down to 64 and a 20 degrees drop here

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

[Cascadia_Wx]

Anyone want to place bets on Tuesday-Thursday this week wildly overachieving as well? We’re not out of the woods yet when it comes to record heat. Then we will finally cool down to average starting Friday.

[Requiem]

Some possible windstorm potential a week out on the EURO ensemble suite 

[snow_wizard]

55 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

I have ZERO leaves anywhere on my property right now.  All the leaves are still on the trees. 

I have quite a few down, but they all fell due to being dried up and brown.  Pretty ugly fall so far.  There might be hope for the cottonwoods with the sudden turn to colder weather.

[snow_wizard]

Day 6 on the 18z EPS.  Purdy!

[Gradient Keeper]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Anyone want to place bets on Tuesday-Thursday this week wildly overachieving as well? We’re not out of the woods yet when it comes to record heat. Then we will finally cool down to average starting Friday.

I wouldn't rule it out Wednesday. 12z EPS mean temp is 18.5c and 18z GEFS 18.9c with a cluster of respective ensemble members even warmer to 19.4c.

00z GFS in 53 minutes

[Rubus Leucodermis]

It’s now within five days and the models haven’t backed off. Encouraging.

[MossMan]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s now within five days and the models haven’t backed off. Encouraging.

It’s coming!! 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

I wouldn't rule it out Wednesday. 12z EPS mean temp is 18.5c and 18z GEFS 18.9c with a cluster of respective ensemble members even warmer to 19.4c.

00z GFS in 53 minutes

We'll have to see.  The operationals aren't too excited about it.  Maybe some inversions in play.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s now within five days and the models haven’t backed off. Encouraging.

You could tell this one was going to work out.  The EPS has been rock solid for days.

[Gradient Keeper]

With tonight's model runs we edge one step closer to ending this extended, hellish? (sure, that's a good word for it) and record breaking Summer weather that has shockingly pushed into mid-October. It is CRAZY even typing that. The pattern change we've been seemingly waiting forever to arrive will FINALLY do so on Friday! I can't wait! The Fall rainy season starts sometime Friday afternoon-evening. Yep, this unprecedented stretch of dry and warm weather will be a distant memory well before Halloween, but let's be honest we'll probably be complaining about how wet and soggy things are within a week! C'MON!!!!

Think RAIN, Cooler Temperatures, and, well, RAIN! C'MON!!!!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

You could tell this one was going to work out.  The EPS has been rock solid for days.

You obviously had a lot more faith in it than I did, but even I mentioned a few days ago that when the Euro and the GFS disagree on something, the Euro is usually the one that ends up being closer to reality.

And it’s still not a sure thing — but the odds of a rug pull are really starting to dwindle.

[Cloud]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You could tell this one was going to work out.  The EPS has been rock solid for days.

Sooner or later it has to. This anomalous stretch has gone far enough. We are entering peak rainy season and nary a drop so far. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Sooner or later it has to. This anomalous stretch has gone far enough. We are entering peak rainy season and nary a drop so far. 

We’ll have to see how long the rainy pattern lasts; it could always revert to ridging and droughty in a few weeks. Even if it does, however, fire season will be over until next year assuming the forecast rainy spell comes.

[The Blob]

Down to 66, already cooler than last night. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Down to 65.1 now. My low temp had been 70.9

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

This weekend definitely ended up with a June 2021 vibe to it.

Eh, only got to 71F today so not really that extreme.

The region wasn’t uniformly above average today to the same extent.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[James Jones]

10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Eh, only got to 71F today so not really that extreme.

The region wasn’t uniformly above average today to the same extent.

Eugene only hit 93 the day Salem hit 117, Portland 116, and Seattle 108 because the southerly surge was already in progress. The last couple days were very close to being as anomalous as June 2021, and as others have mentioned the setup was very similar with the highest heights of the rex block being just to our north/northeast.

It reminds me a bit of March 2012 for the Midwest in terms of how unprecedented this month as been for the region, though our climate isn't capable of the level of anomalies the Midwest and East can see during the cold season. The average high at PDX so far this month is an absurd 81.3, warmer than the average high for August with the old 1981-2010 normals. No other October in the last ~150 years has come even close.

[Cloud]

Down to 57 and breezy out. Only about 13 degrees cooler than last night at this time.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3