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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx

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1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Anything average or colder will feel cold at least compared to what we've been seeing!

Very true.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

Ā 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Ā 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Ā 

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1 hour ago, NWbyNW said:

Saw that coming from a mile away. Ā The models from 10-12 days away never pan through. Ā I only start believing them about 3-4 days out.Ā 

BTW you are not right about this.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

Ā 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Ā 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Ā 

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Winds are shifting and it will make some areas not so great. Ā This mainly effects Oregon and Clark County. Ā The Nakia Creek fire is currently belching smoke at the exact time that winds have shifted south. Ā So Portland's eastern burbs will see Ā a ton of smoke in the coming hours, as well the entirety of the metro area.

82191698_ScreenShot2022-10-18at6_01_53PM.thumb.png.5469abfbb1246d601a80f3ce7c59907b.png

Bellingham is currently suffering from the worst air quality they've seen all year. Ā The majority of the city and the county is in either hazardous air quality or unhealthy air quality. Conditions will not improve in the next several hours. Ā Also the Lower Mainland is seeing some of the worst air quality they've seen since last week. Ā 

1228974340_ScreenShot2022-10-18at6_01_39PM.thumb.png.5f93eabed6a253ab0ea5a313b77904ea.png

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW you are not right about this.

Ok. Ā Just saying it how I usually see it turn out. Ā I personally don't believe any of the models that far out. For example we've been seeing them predict rain always 10 days out for almost the past month or more. Ā They've been wrong nonstop. Ā But to each their own. :)

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9 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Ok. Ā Just saying it how I usually see it turn out. Ā I personally don't believe any of the models that far out. For example we've been seeing them predict rain always 10 days out for almost the past month or more. Ā They've been wrong nonstop. Ā But to each their own. :)

No doubt they are often wrong from that range.Ā  I was just saying don't assume they will always be wrong.Ā  With weather and models anytime you get too comfortable with an idea you will surely get burned.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

Ā 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Ā 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Ā 

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23 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

The weekend cannot come quick enough... and now for more reasons then it just being the weekend!Ā šŸ˜

Ā 

Screen Shot 2022-10-18 at 5.56.21 PM.png

I would say THE driest stretch.

  • scream 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

Ā 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Ā 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Ā 

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15 minutes ago, T-Town said:

We might as well just give up.

  • Popcorn 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

Ā 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Ā 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Ā 

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47 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Winds are shifting and it will make some areas not so great. Ā This mainly effects Oregon and Clark County. Ā The Nakia Creek fire is currently belching smoke at the exact time that winds have shifted south. Ā So Portland's eastern burbs will see Ā a ton of smoke in the coming hours, as well the entirety of the metro area.

82191698_ScreenShot2022-10-18at6_01_53PM.thumb.png.5469abfbb1246d601a80f3ce7c59907b.png

Bellingham is currently suffering from the worst air quality they've seen all year. Ā The majority of the city and the county is in either hazardous air quality or unhealthy air quality. Conditions will not improve in the next several hours. Ā Also the Lower Mainland is seeing some of the worst air quality they've seen since last week. Ā 

1228974340_ScreenShot2022-10-18at6_01_39PM.thumb.png.5f93eabed6a253ab0ea5a313b77904ea.png

Wow that's not good for the metro area. AQI is around 115 here in the western metro and we shouldn't see it as bad as the eastern metro but still not good.

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

AQI now around 190. Visible haze at about a 1-block distance. The interesting thing is, it seems very thin, as the sky directly above was blue during daylight hours. Perhaps there in an inversion trapping it at the surface.

Almost to the time of year when low level inversions and polluted air trapped at the surface is celebrated on here as being absolutely wonderful.Ā Ā šŸ‘

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Almost to the time of year when low level inversions and polluted air trapped at the surface is celebrated on here as being absolutely wonderful.Ā Ā šŸ‘

wow! the worst thing I've read all night. visceral pain! bile in my throat!Ā šŸ˜€

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining:Ā 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21:Ā 13"

-2021-22:Ā 8.75"

-2022-23:Ā 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall:Ā 0.25ā€; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm):Ā 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth:Ā 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest:Ā 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Almost to the time of year when low level inversions and polluted air trapped at the surface is celebrated on here as being absolutely wonderful.Ā Ā šŸ‘

Inversions kept us below freezing for almost a week after the big snowstorm in January 2017!

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19 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

wow! the worst thing I've read all night. visceral pain! bile in my throat!Ā šŸ˜€

Sort of true though.Ā  Ā No one cares about air quality warnings when it's 32 with freezing fog.Ā Ā 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sort of true though.Ā  Ā No one cares about air quality warnings when it's 32 with freezing fog.Ā Ā 

It's truly difficult to comprehend that, in the midst of our second consecutive week of challenging or outright obliterating daily temperature records, while in the process of suffocating on toxic smoke caused by this very heat, you still manage to sneak in an 'ol Inversion Hate Post. Always finding a way with this one!

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

32 with freezing fog.

Saying the quiet part out loud. Unbelievable given the month we've had.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining:Ā 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21:Ā 13"

-2021-22:Ā 8.75"

-2022-23:Ā 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall:Ā 0.25ā€; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm):Ā 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth:Ā 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest:Ā 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I donā€™t think Iā€™ve ever seen an AQI pushing 200 in a winter inversion.

True... but definitely over 100 which is very bad.Ā  Ā Its looks about the same.Ā  Murky and gross.Ā  Ā 

Ā 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Inversions kept us below freezing for almost a week after the big snowstorm in January 2017!

January 2013 had a whopper of an inversion.Ā  It was a classic with a legit shot of cold at the beginning and then a ridge moved right on top of us.Ā  That resulted in a pretty chilly month.Ā  I pulled off a 32/23 day out of that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

Ā 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Ā 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Ā 

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's truly difficult to comprehend that, in the midst of our second consecutive week of challenging or outright obliterating daily temperature records, while in the process of suffocating on toxic smoke caused by this very heat, you still manage to sneak in an 'ol Inversion Hate Post. Always finding a way with this one!

Saying the quiet part out loud. Unbelievable given the month we've had.

Literally no idea what you are talking about... I have hated the smoke.Ā  Ā Absolutely hate it.Ā  Ā I could not care less about warmth if it comes like it has over the last couple of weeks.Ā  Ā  Inversions are the problem right now.Ā  Ā I don't like inversions of any kind as it prevents ventilation.Ā Ā 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10/18/22 8:09 PM 00z GFS
---TUESDAY--NIGHT--MODEL--RIDING---
Begins in.... 26 minutes (8:35 PM)
Ā 
It's gonna rain. Then rain after that. Might rain even after that. We'll be watching for any possible deep lows spinning up near the Coast as we are in wind storm season now! Here we go!

Think Rain, Cooler Temperatures, and, Mountain Snow! C'MON!!!!

šŸŒ¦ ā˜‚ļøšŸ—» ā›·šŸ‚ šŸŒ§ ā˜ļø šŸŒ¬ šŸŒ¦ šŸŒ§ šŸ—» šŸ‚ ā˜ļø ā˜”ļø šŸŒ¬

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18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's truly difficult to comprehend that, in the midst of our second consecutive week of challenging or outright obliterating daily temperature records, while in the process of suffocating on toxic smoke caused by this very heat, you still manage to sneak in an 'ol Inversion Hate Post. Always finding a way with this one!

Saying the quiet part out loud. Unbelievable given the month we've had.

seriously comparing fog to smoke. Because itā€™s inversion šŸ¤”

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

True... but definitely over 100 which is very bad.Ā  Ā Its looks about the same.Ā  Murky and gross.Ā  Ā 

Ā 

Looks like the worst inversion day in the last 8 years (I only have easy access to data back to 2014) averaged an AQI of between 80 and 100 in Seattle (December 12, 2017). Which is bad, but there's a clear difference between 80-100 and 150-200+.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Ā  Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)Ā Ā  Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)Ā Ā  Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)Ā Ā  Avg Yearly Precip: 37"Ā  Ā 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" |Ā '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5"Ā | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"Ā | '21-22: 21.75"Ā | '22-23: 10.0"Ā 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Literally no idea what you are talking about... I have hated the smoke.Ā  Ā Absolutely hate it.Ā  Ā I could not care less about warmth if it comes like it has over the last couple of weeks.Ā  Ā  Inversions are the problem right now.Ā  Ā I don't like inversions of any kind as it prevents ventilation.Ā Ā 

Your post implied that no one cares about air quality when itā€™s 32 and foggy out and is ā€œcelebratedā€ ā€” but cry about the inversion and air quality when itā€™s smoky. Is that sorta right here? Or what are you even trying to compare?Ā 

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1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

Looks like the worst inversion day in the last 8 years (I only have easy access to data back to 2014) averaged an AQI of between 80 and 100 in Seattle (December 12, 2017). Which is bad, but there's a clear difference between 80-100 and 150-200+.

Got it.Ā  Ā And we have been complaining about 80-100 for the last 2 weeks as well.Ā  Today is extreme but it's been generally crappy for quite awhile.Ā  Ā It was just an observation when @Rubus LeucodermisĀ mentioned a strong low level inversion.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

January 2013 had a whopper of an inversion.Ā  It was a classic with a legit shot of cold at the beginning and then a ridge moved right on top of us.Ā  That resulted in a pretty chilly month.Ā  I pulled off a 32/23 day out of that.

Looks like Hillsboro also had a 31/21 day that month. PDX also had a few highs of 34. Unrelated but the November 2015 cold snap doesn't look bad either. 34/21 at Hillsboro on the 30th. And then a 31/25 day on 1/3/2016 during an otherwise warm winter.Ā 

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7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Your post implied that no one cares about air quality when itā€™s 32 and foggy out and is ā€œcelebratedā€ ā€” but cry about the inversion and air quality when itā€™s smoky. Is that sorta right here? Or what are you even trying to compare?Ā 

Yes... people will forgive bad air quality when its means cold surface temps.Ā  Ā That is all.Ā  Ā Are you saying that is not true?Ā  Ā It absolutely is true.Ā  I never said it was the same as today.Ā  Ā  Just made the connection between inversions causing a big problem today and being considered a good thing in a few weeks.Ā  Ā  Sorry you can't find that a little humorous.Ā  We all hated the conditions today... including me.Ā  Ā Ā 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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There are going to be some losers with the first shot of rain. It is not looking like a widespread soaking unfortunately. I think the losers will be south of Portland and BC. Longview to Bellingham will be the winners. The Cascades will do very well of course.

The good news is that there are more decent chances for a widespread soaking in the pipeline. Of course, we are getting close to the wettest month of the year where we average about .20ā€™ā€™/day. So, soon any 10 day forecast with <2ā€™ā€™ is actually below normal.Ā 

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