October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Randyc321]

11 hours ago, Doiinko said:

East metro wins again

Unless it goes North.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Loving these model runs. The worm has turned.

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

At last! Rain and 48˚F. And an AQI of 10. What a delightful morning!

And more of the same to come…

It gives the rain forecast in hundredths of a millimeter?  That would be like measuring rain in increments of 4/10,000ths of an inch.

[ShawniganLake]

I wonder how much the dry grass will green up before winter. Grass doesn’t grow much in these shorter days if it’s cloudy damp and cool

[Kolk1604]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Yup. Cold air aloft 500mb temps -30c. Slight chance.

Gimme that at the 850 level and we in business! 

[Winterdog]

Nothing measurable yet but it is raining very lightly. 47 after a low of 45.  I'm wondering how long before the rain becomes a pain again. 

[Cloud]

Watched "Lou" last night on Netflix because I was bored and wanted something to watch before bed... the movie took place in the San Juans / Orcas Island and I can tell from the beginning sequence that it's a ton of BS. I can understand the rain they were trying to portray but the lightning and thunder for about 3/4th of the movie was a "NO!! C'MON MAN" reaction from me. We rarely, if any get any lightning and thunder to that extent here in the PNW.

[HuskyMaestro]

No rain yet but 53 in Tacoma. Glad that I could breathe in the air again. Happy first day of Fall

[Meatyorologist]

10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I wonder how much the dry grass will green up before winter. Grass doesn’t grow much in these shorter days if it’s cloudy damp and cool

Given that we spend 95% of our wet season above freezing, I figure the grass will take advantage of what little sunlight we do get. We should be nearly all the way back to green lawns come December.

[Blizzard777]

V-formation of 150 birds flying south moments ago in Tigard Or.   spitting rain

It’s coming! 

[Meatyorologist]

It's been an ugly year for my lawn. Actually shrunk down an inch or two from drying. That takes some serious water loss, feet deep into the soil. That will take at least a few weeks of active rainy weather to recover. Only other time that happened was in 2015.

[Blizzard777]

7 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Yup! I changed it a few hours ago!

 

[TacomaWx]

2 hours ago, Hour364Please said:

I traveled through Yellowstone and the Grand Tetons this summer.  Looks like areas of Idaho, Montana and Wyoming are about to get their winter on!  If you've never been you should go.  It's a great drive and the natural beauty is stunning.

On the drive back we went through the heaviest thunder and lightning storm I've ever been in near Butte.  Wow!  Almost had to pull the car over.

Was there just a week ago and want to go back already. 

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Given that we spend 95% of our wet season above freezing, I figure the grass will take advantage of what little sunlight we do get. We should be nearly all the way back to green lawns come December.

I guarantee some lawns here will not recover from this summer.  We have a lot of poor rocky soil in this area and it’s likely those lawns are too far gone to recover.  

[Blizzard777]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

It really is a shock to the system out there. 51F and cloudy with a light breeze and the "smell" of fall. Definitely looks and feels the part.

We've had overnight lows this cold this fall, but not with clean air and clouds, and definitely not with a breeze.

Took a walk through my daughters neighborhood and everyone bundled in jackets and gloves.  Enjoyed all the fall decorations in the yards as well.  Fall is finally here  

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

I guarantee some lawns here will not recover from this summer.  We have a lot of poor rocky soil in this area and it’s likely those lawns are too far gone to recover.  

So are some trees, I'm afraid those are permanently dead as they started to shed their dead, brown, crispy leaves in August.... saw many of those. Just a matter of time when they begin to rot down the road. 

[TacomaWx]

Nice to see fall has arrived this morning. Radar looks like it’s filling in. Starting to sprinkle a bit and the smoke is finally gone. Got down to 48 this morning. 

[MossMan]

It came. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Right now looking at a mean temp of 63.0 month to date at SLE. Looking ahead we project to be at about 60.0 through the 27th. Should drop a little more after that. May avoid a top 3 warm October here... 

1) 1901: 59.6

2) 2014: 59.5

3) 2015: 59.0

[Rubus Leucodermis]

22 minutes ago, Cloud said:

So are some trees, I'm afraid those are permanently dead as they started to shed their dead, brown, crispy leaves in August.... saw many of those. Just a matter of time when they begin to rot down the road. 

Lots of hemlocks got defoliated by the hemlock looper in Stanley Park this summer, and given how hard this year was on them due to the heat and drought as well, I am assuming that many of them are goners.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS was a little less active than the ensembles.

[Deweydog]

[FroYoBro]

IT’S RAINING!!!

[Omegaraptor]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS was a little less active than the ensembles.

See what happens with that low in the GOA day 8-9. Has potential to get really, really deep.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

See what happens with that low in the GOA day 8-9. Has potential to get really, really deep.

Hard to complain about this...

[Omegaraptor]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hard to complain about this...

Most of this precip is cold NW flow with snow levels below 6k. Dips to 3500’ Saturday night. Actually impressive for October.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Loving these model runs. The worm has turned.

Euro was the early bird.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Given that we spend 95% of our wet season above freezing, I figure the grass will take advantage of what little sunlight we do get. We should be nearly all the way back to green lawns come December.

I bet it only takes a couple weeks or so.

[ShawniganLake]

For your viewing pleasure. 
 

snowing on the BC passes

[Front Ranger]

55 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Right now looking at a mean temp of 63.0 month to date at SLE. Looking ahead we project to be at about 60.0 through the 27th. Should drop a little more after that. May avoid a top 3 warm October here... 

1) 1901: 59.6

2) 2014: 59.5

3) 2015: 59.0

PDX is the only major station that has a legit shot at a record warm month. Shocking.

[Winterdog]

850's down to zero Seattle northward now.  It doesn't feel at all like summer anymore.  48 here in light rain.

[Gradient Keeper]

45 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Post of the day.

[Gradient Keeper]

I missed the 12z GFS/GEFS. I was busy cleaning the gutters, patio cover, putting the A/C and BBQ to bed for the past 3 hours. Apparently my life has devolved to watching the rain with Judge Judy on in the background? Nope. *Flicks channels... Nah... Nope.... Nah... Ahhh yeah Stephen A. Smith yelling. There we go!

18z GFS in 3 hours 12 minutes

[Cloud]

Despite this being late, we crash hard and fast... it's as if mother nature decides to flip the switch. Feels quite chilly outside.

[ShawniganLake]

Rains been a bustola up here. 0.02” and already tapering off. 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Rains been a bustola up here. 0.02” and already tapering off. 

#2cold2rain

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There was some drizzle here in Salem

within the past hour.

[TT-SEA]

PDO is a mystery to me and its probably irrelevant in terms of looking forward... but it looks like the strongly negative PDO run is fading.   This almost looks like a +PDO signal to me.

 

[Phishy Wx]

rain here now and my shiity neighbors left their dog out in it and it's been barking for an hour straight

 

so it's definitely coming

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

PDO is a mystery to me and its probably irrelevant in terms of looking forward... but it looks like the strongly negative PDO run is fading.   This almost looks like a +PDO signal to me.

 

Michael Snyder mentioned on twitter he was working on compiling data showing correlations for major influences like PDO have on the PNW.  For what its worth we are still technically in a negative PDO regime