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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx

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1 hour ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Just got done walking my dog. Ran into one of my neighbors who knows I'm a weather degen and i let slip the possibility of the 4 letter S word next month. 

You realize for doing this we’ve both gained a strike against us here! 3 strikes were out 😱unless the goods are delivered! Welcome to the game 😛

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Had a couple of rumbles of thunder about an hour ago and several flashes of lightning.  Tried to take the puppy out to "use the facilities" in the heavy rain that followed the light show.  It was her first heavy rain (she was born in late April and came home to us in late June).

We walked out on the back porch and she looked up at me with a "f*ck this....I'll hold it!!!" look in her eyes.  We went out anyway but all she did was give big ole sad puppy eyes and try to convince me to take her back inside.  She better get used to it!!

 

Picked up .23" in that downpour bringing us to .63" for the day.

 

We can go ahead and dismiss the eye candy the models are showing in fantasy land.  When my son got home tonight I went outside and got his tire size and told him he would need to buy snow tires for his car soon.

He has to commute from Bellingham to Hamilton every day, so a decent chunk of his commute is among the sh*ttiest roads when winter precip is in the area.  Not to pull things off topic, but what do you Subaru drivers run on in the winter?  Are there any tires that are good on ice that he can drive on year around?  He has a 2016 Forester, and drives about 80 miles round trip per day.

 

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8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Were you wanting to do the honors?

I'll try and QB the night shift GFS.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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14 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

You realize for doing this we’ve both gained a strike against us here! 3 strikes were out 😱unless the goods are delivered! Welcome to the game 😛

Jaya tweeted something about it the other day for early November with graphs for Paine Field, but he likes to do teasers sometimes on the long range stuff even when he's not actually buying in. So you wouldn't be alone in jinxing it.

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5 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Had a couple of rumbles of thunder about an hour ago and several flashes of lightning.  Tried to take the puppy out to "use the facilities" in the heavy rain that followed the light show.  It was her first heavy rain (she was born in late April and came home to us in late June).

We walked out on the back porch and she looked up at me with a "f*ck this....I'll hold it!!!" look in her eyes.  We went out anyway but all she did was give big ole sad puppy eyes and try to convince me to take her back inside.  She better get used to it!!

 

Picked up .23" in that downpour bringing us to .63" for the day.

 

We can go ahead and dismiss the eye candy the models are showing in fantasy land.  When my son got home tonight I went outside and got his tire size and told him he would need to buy snow tires for his car soon.

He has to commute from Bellingham to Hamilton every day, so a decent chunk of his commute is among the sh*ttiest roads when winter precip is in the area.  Not to pull things off topic, but what do you Subaru drivers run on in the winter?  Are there any tires that are good on ice that he can drive on year around?  He has a 2016 Forester, and drives about 80 miles round trip per day.

 

I'm in Spokane and have never used snow tires on my 2012 Outback.  I run some top of the line Cooper All Seasons.  never had any issues.

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58 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'm in Spokane and have never used snow tires on my 2012 Outback.  I run some top of the line Cooper All Seasons.  never had any issues.

Interesting....I asked my mother in law about it, she has owned Subarus forever, and lived in Hood River/The Dalles for a while before moving to Great Falls.  She talked to her "tire guy" and he said on the east side of the continental divide, they could get away with "all seasons" with the triple peaks because the snow is so dry.  He also told her that in parts of Montana west of the continental divide like Missoula folks needed a set of winter tires because of the higher moisture content in the snow.  She said it was the same in Hood River/The Dalles.  I would assume that would be the case for Spokane but maybe not?

For my son, the fact that he will be hitting to road at 4am, and getting to Hamilton just before 5am, I'm a little concerned about what he is going to find for the road conditions.  Fortunately, he is on the interstate and a major state highway, but still, the canyon south of Bellingham can get downright nasty in a hurry.

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15 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Nearly midnight and it’s 71 degrees in Chicago.

The craziness continues.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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18 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEM

floop-gdps-2022102500.500h_anom_na.gif

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 3 minutes

Truly amazing how fast the models have changed their tune on early November.  As always the details of any blocking features will be subject to rapid change.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I feel like a night shift is in order, Rob.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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At this point it appears a cold Halloween might be on the table with that first cold shot.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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11 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Looking like Stevens will get 3-4ft of snow over the next 7-10 days 

IDK about that. Looks to me like the snow level will bounce around between 3,500 and 5,500 feet. Stevens will get periods of rain between each snowfall which will probably keep much from piling up at pass level. It’s too early in the season for any cold East wind helping out the passes so they’ll have to rely on cold enough upper level air masses.

Does look like the upper slopes there will get a lot though.

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  • Snow 1

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

prateptype_cat_mm.caribbean.png
GFS clown range has a major hurricane

Feels reminiscent of Hurricane Iota back in 2020. Hopefully it dissipates in the clown range.

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𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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