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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx

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17 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I feel like a night shift is in order, Rob.

During the summer I didn't sleep until 2 AM and it felt dead and surreal on here to be the only one online at times. Here's for some great night shifts from here on out! ๐Ÿป

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๐˜๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฎ๐˜บ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ด ๐˜ฅ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ฎ๐˜ด,

๐˜ ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ฏ.

๐˜—๐˜ถ๐˜บ๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ญ๐˜ถ๐˜ฑ.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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10 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

IDK about that. Looks to me like the snow level will bounce around between 3,500 and 5,500 feet. Stevens will get periods of rain between each snowfall which will probably keep much from piling up at pass level. Itโ€™s too early in the season for any cold East wind helping out the passes so theyโ€™ll have to rely on cold enough upper level air masses.

Does look like the upper slopes there will get a lot though.

For sure. I meant in terms of snowfall. The 7-10 day is looking really promising and hopefully doesnโ€™t get too watered down. The upper slopes is what really matters for ski season and they looked to get a good base going.ย 

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4 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

During the summer I didn't sleep until 2 AM and it felt dead and surreal on here to be the only one online at times. Here's for some great night shifts from here on out! ๐Ÿป

Looking forward the night shifts this winter! Itโ€™s gonna be EPIC!!!!!!!!

  • Like 5

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75โ€

Max Snow Depth - 0.5โ€

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It says NOPE.. I'm going back the other way.ย 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh192-240.gif

the-simpsons-bart-simpson.gif

Professor: โ€œThe exam is todayโ€ย 

18z:ย 

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๐˜๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฎ๐˜บ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ด ๐˜ฅ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ฎ๐˜ด,

๐˜ ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ฏ.

๐˜—๐˜ถ๐˜บ๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ญ๐˜ถ๐˜ฑ.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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5 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Professor: โ€œThe exam is todayโ€ย 

18z:ย 

Yup... it's literally me trying to sabotage the latestย  model run and showed up to the exam the day after all confused.ย ๐Ÿ˜‚

In all seriousness, was just catching up on the runs today saw these hilarious frames! Thus, the meme. ;)

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Not often we see the EURO, GEM, and GFS in sync like this at Day 6.

Just what I was thinking.ย  I think I like the finest details on the ECMWF the best though.ย  Looking good for at least a minor cold shot.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

ย 

Winter 2023-24 stats

ย 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

ย 

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26 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Up to .92โ€ย 6" on the day and itโ€™s currently dumping!ย 

Won't be much longer before you post something like this.ย 

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5โ€

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

ย 

ย 

ย 

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6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Do you guys and gals prefer me to post the past 4 runs and model comparisons like this? or? it just takes a bit longer as the ECMWF hi-res runs slower.

It's your offense my man. I post just single frames overnight.

  • Thanks 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Janย 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Janย 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24ย (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4ย (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25โ€
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024ย (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

ย 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 7 (Past 4 runs)

trend-ecmwf_full-2022102500-f168.500h_anom.na.gif

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

models-2022102500-f168.500h_anom.na.gif

Itโ€™s coming. Thatโ€™s all this looks like to me.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75โ€

Max Snow Depth - 0.5โ€

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

A November to remember? A few more days of model runs like this and I'll have to dust off the 'Colder Runs Ahead!'(c)Rob 2017?

6z GFS in 2 hours 35 minutes

I hope so.ย 

850's warm at the end, but we all know switch can flip on the next runย 

  • Shivering 1

195572.png?1673757432

ย 

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The ECMWF spits out a 43/35 for SEA on day 9, and better stuff is coming it would appear.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

ย 

Winter 2023-24 stats

ย 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

ย 

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3 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Why did King County just get a flash flood warning? Am I missing something?

Must be a mistake.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

ย 

Winter 2023-24 stats

ย 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

ย 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1043 PM PDT Mon Oct 24 2022

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  North Central King County in west central Washington...

* Until 245 AM PDT.

* At 1043 PM PDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 0.2 and 0.3 inches of
  rain has fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 0.25 to 0.5 inches
  in 1 hour. Flash flooding is possible.

Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will result in debris flow.
The debris flow can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and other loose
materials.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of North Central King County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move away from recently burned areas. Life-threatening flooding of
creeks, roads and normally dry arroyos is likely. The heavy rains
will likely trigger rockslides, mudslides and debris flows in steep
terrain, especially in and around these areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or
creeks.

sbw-history.php?vtec=2022.KSEW.FF.W.0001

ย 

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850s 6C below normal at hour 180 on the EPS.

1667304000-6Vw7aDqP7M4.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

ย 

Winter 2023-24 stats

ย 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

ย 

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3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1043 PM PDT Mon Oct 24 2022

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  North Central King County in west central Washington...

* Until 245 AM PDT.

* At 1043 PM PDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 0.2 and 0.3 inches of
  rain has fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 0.25 to 0.5 inches
  in 1 hour. Flash flooding is possible.

Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will result in debris flow.
The debris flow can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and other loose
materials.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of North Central King County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move away from recently burned areas. Life-threatening flooding of
creeks, roads and normally dry arroyos is likely. The heavy rains
will likely trigger rockslides, mudslides and debris flows in steep
terrain, especially in and around these areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or
creeks.

sbw-history.php?vtec=2022.KSEW.FF.W.0001

ย 

I'll be dipped!

  • Rain 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

ย 

Winter 2023-24 stats

ย 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

ย 

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