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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really all we can ask for IMO out of November is to build some snow pack and get some rain. Other than a once in a decade or two type of scenario like 1985, 1993, 2010, 1955, etc... 

2010 was before I found this forum, but I remember 2010 well. The local forecasters were talking about the chance for snow several days in advance and eventually predicted 1-3 inches. We did get about 1 inch that melted out quickly because it turned sunny in the morning. Other than that, 1985 was the other one I can remember for November at the valley floor level. For some reason, even a couple of days into December makes a world of difference down here.

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It's going to get soggy and gusty!!  The North Sound is going to get hit the most with strong gusts.  Up to 40 in Everett, 46 in Mount Vernon, over 50 in Bellingham!  South Sound will also see some decent gusts unless you live in Renton, Kent, Auburn area.  The entirety of the Washington Coast and the Straight will get gust.  If you live in Victoria, you will be somewhat protected thanks to the Olympics Mtns.

bf7bc750-5932-440f-a531-d3d2ec6e4599_1920x1080.thumb.jpg.5ca42554b20572b51e054adb0eac290b.jpg

The rainfall by Friday morning will be significant!  Over half an inch in Bellingham, over half in inch around Grays Harbor, and near two inches on the Peninsula around Quillayute and Neah Bay!  Not to mention (which this map doesn't show) the new snow in the Cascades! 

c9d68553-7d4f-4702-9050-63274058ff79_1920x1080.thumb.jpg.474dd92767122ddd0c9cdf74ba84f912.jpg

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8 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

The East Coast weenies are out in force.  Fundamentally the Nina isn't weakening at all if you look at subsurface sea temps and atmospheric indicators.  They are trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The East Coast weenies are out in force.  Fundamentally the Nina isn't weakening at all if you look at subsurface sea temps and atmospheric indicators.  They are trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.

All indications are that the weakening of Nina begins very soon... the trade winds collapse next week.    They talked about this extensively in the last Ag Weather update on Monday.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Wow!  Subsurface is falling again in the ENSO regions. 😮

heat-last-year.gif

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

All indications are that the weakening of Nina begins very soon... the trade winds collapse next week.    They talked about this extensively in the last Ag Weather update on Monday.

We shall see.  I think the East Coast mets are really getting ahead of themselves though.  This will be a Nina driven winter...at least most of it.

I will say that 1956 and 1971 are coming up as analogs like crazy and both of those were the final year of multi year Ninas with Ninos developing the next year.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We shall see.  I think the East Coast mets are really getting ahead of themselves though.  This will be a Nina driven winter...at least most of it.

I will say that 1956 and 1971 are coming up as analogs like crazy and both of those were the final year of multi year Ninas with Ninos developing the next year.

One thing is for certain, if it is warm over there, and arctic cold over here, the MMGW folks will be off their rocker!

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Too bad there is still so much uncertainty with the GOA blocking coming up.  A solidly cold outcome is still very possible, but it will come down to small details.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We shall see.  I think the East Coast mets are really getting ahead of themselves though.  This will be a Nina driven winter...at least most of it.

I will say that 1956 and 1971 are coming up as analogs like crazy and both of those were the final year of multi year Ninas with Ninos developing the next year.

We shall see... they talked about it being a front-loaded winter out West and a back-loaded winter in the East.     That would be pretty nice.   I would like to get back to spring starting in February like it used to.  👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We shall see... they talked about it being a front-loaded winter out West and a back-loaded winter in the East.     That would be pretty nice.   I would like to get back to spring starting in February like it used to.  👍

February is in the winter... That's like asking for Fall to begin in August.🤔

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

This has to be Culver Josh.

We're just now figuring this out? I feel behind.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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11 minutes ago, Kayla said:

February is in the winter... That's like asking for Fall to begin in August.🤔

I know... but February can be quite spring-like around here.  Not lately of course because now its become the heart of winter despite despite being 2 months out from the winter solstice.  I know... seasonal lag.    But getting tired of January being a spring-like month and February going back to winter.  🙄

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

Druncle bringing the goods to E WA

 

image.thumb.png.cef932d8609a1b3d33090c7ad12f78c2.png 

 

Gotta love that GFS if you're in EWA. 

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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5 minutes ago, Darrington Troll said:

View from the front yard, looks like the snow level dropped below 4,000 feet briefly.

1A810AA2-BFF9-478B-97D1-720EF2BEB94B.jpeg

Nice having someone on here who lives in Darrington... you get some crazy weather there.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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17 minutes ago, Darrington Troll said:

View from the front yard, looks like the snow level dropped below 4,000 feet briefly.

1A810AA2-BFF9-478B-97D1-720EF2BEB94B.jpeg

That looks like Skadulgwas (middle summit of Higgins)! I love seeing the striations on that peak as I drive up the valley. You've got an awesome view there!

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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