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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I knew there would be a rain shadow, but this is one of the larger and more distinct ones you'll see.

Yeah... its even reached out here at times.   It was dry most of the morning.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Eujunga said:

EUG has a well-deserved reputation for being colder at night than just about anywhere in the area, especially in the kind of clear, calm pattern we had for most of October. My October average low to date is 49.4.

Jim doesn't live at SEA. Pretty sure his October average low to date is quite a bit colder than that.

But by all means carry on with your narrative.

Been a pretty warm month for the whole region, microclimates that do and don’t favor radiational cooling aside. 
 

😱 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Eventually the rain shadow will give and we should get a decent soaking before the month ends…taking us well out of contention for driest October I’ve recorded. 
 We also won’t be getting our warmest October on record…should finish roughly 0.5-0.7 degrees cooler than 2014. The first half of this month was much warmer than the first half of 2014 but 2014 was consistently warmer overall than 2022. 

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37 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Seems like a lot of arguments on here start when people extrapolate that the weather in their backyard applies to the region as a whole, or when they cherry-pick isolated data points to support a narrative (I'm guilty of this at times).

That's when I like to look at the ACIS maps to get a more accurate overall picture of the region. In this case, they verify that the nights this October have overall been on the warm side, and that it has in fact been drier than normal in most of Oregon and Washington (thus supporting my heat/drought narrative).

MonthTMINDeptWRCC-NW.png

MonthPNormWRCC-NW.png

Yeah, there's definitely a wide range of microclimates on here. I mean in my backyard, the average temperature this month will end up being cooler than 2014, 2015, and 2016. Even the average high will end up below October 2014, mostly because when it was 88F in Seattle the other day it was only 74F here.

And after the rain today/tomorrow I'll end up above average on rainfall for the month. So based on my station this October will look slightly wetter than average with a close to average mean temperature and a warmer than average high temperature. But of course, that is not really representative of most of the area.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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18z is a big improvement.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Sub 500dm 1000-500mb thickness values into interior BC this run. That is a big deal in the heart of winter. I've seen worse airmasses do good work.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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And a high around freezing with brilliantly clear skies on the 8th?!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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18z GFS smashes 11/8's daily min/max by 10F, the current record holder being a high of 43F on 11/8/1973.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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That would be something special if it happened considering how long the last few months have gone. Seems likely there will be some chilly weather coming up but if I had to guess it’ll probably be some days in the upper 30s low 40s at best…maybe some CZ/Foothill snows just based on climo. Would be cool if the 18z verified tho!

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The package is delivered on the 18z GFS.  Very cold!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Even SEA will miss its warmest October on record by just a hair. Both of you guys routinely overstate the north south temp gradient in the region, just in inverse ways.

Just to get your goat on my part.  Seriously though using SEA for average min this month is very unrepresentative of what the mins have been up here on a broader scale.  If not for the lows being within reason this month would have shattered 2014s record.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Pretty sure the 18z would be historic cold for so early.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The good news is all of the models show very cold air reaching southern BC.  The million dollar question is does it get over the border.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8 - GFS, GEFS. Not even close.

500h_anom.na.png

500h_anom-mean.na.png

That's actually quite good for an ensemble mean 8 days out. Pretty clear most members are in agreement with the operational.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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