October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[TacomaWx]

Looks like yesterday finished with 0.26” of rain…coming down pretty good at the moment up to 1.52” MTD. 

[Jbolin]

9 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Hey Guys... 

Not horrible, not great. I won't be satisfied until 850's are colder than -16C and 925's are colder than -12C

[Jbolin]

11 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Late January.

Cool

[Sonny Summers]

28 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Yes it is, and then turns into a flood. It's a lot better than a ridge-fest or split flow.

Yeah, I hate split flow. Did I mention I hate split flow?

 

P.S. I really hate split flow!

 

[Kolk1604]

00z EPS Day 5 & 6 hours 

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

Not horrible, not great. I won't be satisfied until 850's are colder than -16C and 925's are colder than -12C

It's getting there. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

Not horrible, not great. I won't be satisfied until 850's are colder than -16C and 925's are colder than -12C

That is really impressive for this early.  The amount of cold air in play for this early is amazing.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

It's getting there. 

925mb temps are -4 at the end of the run.  That is there.  We need to remember how early this is.

[Gradient Keeper]

The week ahead is likely to be very wet, with one or perhaps two separate atmospheric river events. What's unknown is whether or not the cold, arctic air will dig south into WA/OR, or hang up in southern BC. All models develop an Aleutian ridge just after Day 4 which then slowly shifts eastward into western Alaska by Day 6-7. It all depends on the orientation and degree of tilt of that blocking high. The next two days I think that picture will become a bit more clear.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

925mb temps are -4 at the end of the run.  That is there.  We need to remember how early this is.

Hey no complaints from me. Highs are in the 30's at the end 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

I'd rather have Thanksgiving snow than Veterans' Day snow. 

Holiday snow preference: 

1. Christmas (Eve or Day)

2. New Year's (Eve or Day)

3. Boxing Day

4. President's Day

5. MLK Day

6. Valentine's Day

7. Thanksgiving (actual day or weekend)

8. Lunar New Year

9. St. Patrick's Day

10. April Fools' Day

Honorable Mentions:

Veterans' Day, Fat Tuesday, Easter, and Halloween

 

Did I miss any? Did not pick Hannukah because it is 8 days so not sure which day to pick.

[snow_wizard]

Great model runs tonight.  Let's hope they continue.

[Kolk1604]

Day 6 (+6 hours) 

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

I'd rather have Thanksgiving snow than Veterans' Day snow. 

Holiday snow preference: 

1. Christmas (Eve or Day)

2. New Year's (Eve or Day)

3. Boxing Day

4. President's Day

5. MLK Day

6. Valentine's Day

7. Thanksgiving (actual day or weekend)

8. Lunar New Year

9. St. Patrick's Day

10. April Fools' Day

Honorable Mentions:

Veterans' Day, Fat Tuesday, Easter, and Halloween

 

Did I miss any? Did not pick Hannukah because it is 8 days so not sure which day to pick.

4th of July? I have a thing for underdogs. 

[Cold Snap]

Even accounting for the kuchera ratio it still looks like the east puget sound lowlands might get a decent amount of snow but I feel like part of that is due to the terrain bleed. I feel like the terrain bleed on the Euro never goes that far out when it keeps snow in the mountains.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

I'd rather have Thanksgiving snow than Veterans' Day snow. 

Holiday snow preference: 

1. Christmas (Eve or Day)

2. New Year's (Eve or Day)

3. Boxing Day

4. President's Day

5. MLK Day

6. Valentine's Day

7. Thanksgiving (actual day or weekend)

8. Lunar New Year

9. St. Patrick's Day

10. April Fools' Day

Honorable Mentions:

Veterans' Day, Fat Tuesday, Easter, and Halloween

 

Did I miss any? Did not pick Hannukah because it is 8 days so not sure which day to pick.

Halloween snow is super cool.  I experienced that in 1984.

I think this thing coming up could rival some of the great late October / early November events of the past.  Cold snaps in that time frame with a Nina usually lead to good things later.

[Kolk1604]

Day 7 looks Familiar... 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Day 7 looks Familiar... 

I sure don't like seeing that. Block is pinching off and far too much tilt.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Halloween snow is super cool.  I experienced that in 1984.

I think this thing coming up could rival some of the great late October / early November events of the past.  Cold snaps in that time frame with a Nina usually lead to good things later.

Kind of early to spike the football on something that’ll likely just be some 40/33 days with maybe some snow above 500’. Would love to be wrong but usually it’s best to bet on climo. There have been some anomalous things like April 2022 and even this summer…so we could follow the craziness with more craziness but this doesn’t seem solid to me IMO. 

[Kolk1604]

A bit after Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Well that is a bummer seeing the EPS mirroring the Op, unless you like tons of rain.

[Kolk1604]

12 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

The week ahead is likely to be very wet, with one or perhaps two separate atmospheric river events. What's unknown is whether or not the cold, arctic air will dig south into WA/OR, or hang up in southern BC. All models develop an Aleutian ridge just after Day 4 which then slowly shifts eastward into western Alaska by Day 6-7. It all depends on the orientation and degree of tilt of that blocking high. The next two days I think that picture will become a bit more clear.

There's also a threat of wind along with the Rain Friday & Saturday 

[Kolk1604]

Day 9 

[Kolk1604]

Day 10 

[Gradient Keeper]

Thanks for the EPS maps nonetheless. It does look to be an active week ahead. Maybe 12z runs handle the block differently. Good night all.

12z GFS in 8 hours
12z ECMWF in 10 hours 10 minutes

[NWbyNW]

This is pretty wildly cool! It is currently 52F degrees.  The high temp for my place tomorrow is supposed to be 52F.  So essentially the warmest part of the day is at night as temps will cool during the day tomorrow!  This isn't too common but pretty cool.  I can say right now, at 12:45am, will be the hottest it will be until till Friday when it reaches 55F!  The rest of this week will be in the 40s!! 

[Kolk1604]

On a positive note... (PNA did flip positive, but is now back negative) 

[snow_wizard]

The control shows SEA dropping to 23 at day 10.5.

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Kind of early to spike the football on something that’ll likely just be some 40/33 days with maybe some snow above 500’. Would love to be wrong but usually it’s best to bet on climo. There have been some anomalous things like April 2022 and even this summer…so we could follow the craziness with more craziness but this doesn’t seem solid to me IMO. 

I never spiked the football.   I said could.

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Well that is a bummer seeing the EPS mirroring the Op, unless you like tons of rain.

You're kind of missing the huge cold air mass being shown.

[snow_wizard]

How can anyone be disappointed by this?  Just puzzling.

[Cold Snap]

All the east coast weenies keep talking about a pattern change coming mid month that would put us back under a ridge and keep all the cold out east. Though most of those posts are CFS maps from like 500 hours out.

[Jbolin]

44 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

All the east coast weenies keep talking about a pattern change coming mid month that would put us back under a ridge and keep all the cold out east. Though most of those posts are CFS maps from like 500 hours out.

Mmmhhhmmmm, yea, and the Giants were supposed to beat the Seahawks yesterday too.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 hours ago, gusky said:

Hold your horses, I'll eat 4 ghost peppers at once if it snows more than 2 inches on the 8th/9th. Feel free to hold me to that

Seriously. The GFS has a track record of grossly underestimating the ability of the Rockies, Coast Mountains, and Cascades to get in the way of cold air from the interior. A period of below-normal temperatures with lowland snow chances is looking increasingly likely, but I feel very safe saying it will not be as dramatically cold and snowy as some Goofus runs are claiming it will be.

Goofus was calling for surface temperatures in the -20’s Celsius in this area last January. -15’s were more like it. And in January 2020 it was calling for -15’s and we got -10’s. Seems reasonable to add about 5˚C to whatever the GFS says temperatures will be in an outflow event.

If this thing materializes, I will be pleased as punch with a trace to 4" of sloppy wet snow followed by a freeze into the mid-20’s F, because that is realistically about the best we can expect.

[Snownerd3000]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Seriously. The GFS has a track record of grossly underestimating the ability of the Rockies, Coast Mountains, and Cascades to get in the way of cold air from the interior. A period of below-normal temperatures with lowland snow chances is looking increasingly likely, but I feel very safe saying it will not be as dramatically cold and snowy as some Goofus runs are claiming it will be.

Goofus was calling for surface temperatures in the -20’s Celsius in this area last January. -15’s were more like it. And in January 2020 it was calling for -15’s and we got -10’s. Seems reasonable to add about 5˚C to whatever the GFS says temperatures will be in an outflow event.

If this thing materializes, I will be pleased as punch with a trace to 4" of sloppy wet snow followed by a freeze into the mid-20’s F, because that is realistically about the best we can expect.

GFS is certainly the drunk uncle for a reason but I will say over the last few years its usually the first to sniff out these big events before Euro and Gem catch up. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

GFS is certainly the drunk uncle for a reason but I will say over the last few years its usually the first to sniff out these big events before Euro and Gem catch up. 

Indeed it was. And if you added about 5˚C to its surface temperature modellings, it ended up being quite accurate for our area. But the verbatim numbers were never to be taken seriously.

[Jakewestsalem]

Got this pic yesterday afternoon from a hike into Marion Lake. Low clouds had obscured Three Finger Jack most of the morning but the deck lifted enough.

[Doinko]

26 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Seriously. The GFS has a track record of grossly underestimating the ability of the Rockies, Coast Mountains, and Cascades to get in the way of cold air from the interior. A period of below-normal temperatures with lowland snow chances is looking increasingly likely, but I feel very safe saying it will not be as dramatically cold and snowy as some Goofus runs are claiming it will be.

Goofus was calling for surface temperatures in the -20’s Celsius in this area last January. -15’s were more like it. And in January 2020 it was calling for -15’s and we got -10’s. Seems reasonable to add about 5˚C to whatever the GFS says temperatures will be in an outflow event.

If this thing materializes, I will be pleased as punch with a trace to 4" of sloppy wet snow followed by a freeze into the mid-20’s F, because that is realistically about the best we can expect.

06z shows a completely reasonable temp of 3 degrees F (-16c) at Vancouver. And a 31/26 day in Portland.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

06z shows a completely reasonable temp of 3 degrees F (-16c) at Vancouver.

Hopefully the GFS upgrade coming in a few weeks makes some big improvements in terms of surface conditions.     Its pretty comical how extreme it can be... in both directions.  

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z GFS looked a wee bit snowy for Western WA...

Edit: Just noticed the 00z GFS was also incredibly snowy. So I guess the ticket to a great November was just getting me out of the state. Hopefully the same will be said for January!

Cold too