TacomaWx Posted October 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Looks like yesterday finished with 0.26” of rain…coming down pretty good at the moment up to 1.52” MTD. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Hey Guys... Not horrible, not great. I won't be satisfied until 850's are colder than -16C and 925's are colder than -12C 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Late January. Cool 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny Summers Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 28 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Yes it is, and then turns into a flood. It's a lot better than a ridge-fest or split flow. Yeah, I hate split flow. Did I mention I hate split flow? P.S. I really hate split flow! images (1).mp4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 00z EPS Day 5 & 6 hours 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, JSnowlin said: Not horrible, not great. I won't be satisfied until 850's are colder than -16C and 925's are colder than -12C It's getting there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, JSnowlin said: Not horrible, not great. I won't be satisfied until 850's are colder than -16C and 925's are colder than -12C That is really impressive for this early. The amount of cold air in play for this early is amazing. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Just now, Kolk1604 said: It's getting there. 925mb temps are -4 at the end of the run. That is there. We need to remember how early this is. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 The week ahead is likely to be very wet, with one or perhaps two separate atmospheric river events. What's unknown is whether or not the cold, arctic air will dig south into WA/OR, or hang up in southern BC. All models develop an Aleutian ridge just after Day 4 which then slowly shifts eastward into western Alaska by Day 6-7. It all depends on the orientation and degree of tilt of that blocking high. The next two days I think that picture will become a bit more clear. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: 925mb temps are -4 at the end of the run. That is there. We need to remember how early this is. Hey no complaints from me. Highs are in the 30's at the end 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CliffMassYelledAtMe Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 I'd rather have Thanksgiving snow than Veterans' Day snow. Holiday snow preference: 1. Christmas (Eve or Day) 2. New Year's (Eve or Day) 3. Boxing Day 4. President's Day 5. MLK Day 6. Valentine's Day 7. Thanksgiving (actual day or weekend) 8. Lunar New Year 9. St. Patrick's Day 10. April Fools' Day Honorable Mentions: Veterans' Day, Fat Tuesday, Easter, and Halloween Did I miss any? Did not pick Hannukah because it is 8 days so not sure which day to pick. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Great model runs tonight. Let's hope they continue. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Day 6 (+6 hours) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 minute ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said: I'd rather have Thanksgiving snow than Veterans' Day snow. Holiday snow preference: 1. Christmas (Eve or Day) 2. New Year's (Eve or Day) 3. Boxing Day 4. President's Day 5. MLK Day 6. Valentine's Day 7. Thanksgiving (actual day or weekend) 8. Lunar New Year 9. St. Patrick's Day 10. April Fools' Day Honorable Mentions: Veterans' Day, Fat Tuesday, Easter, and Halloween Did I miss any? Did not pick Hannukah because it is 8 days so not sure which day to pick. 4th of July? I have a thing for underdogs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Even accounting for the kuchera ratio it still looks like the east puget sound lowlands might get a decent amount of snow but I feel like part of that is due to the terrain bleed. I feel like the terrain bleed on the Euro never goes that far out when it keeps snow in the mountains. 1 1 Quote 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 minute ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said: I'd rather have Thanksgiving snow than Veterans' Day snow. Holiday snow preference: 1. Christmas (Eve or Day) 2. New Year's (Eve or Day) 3. Boxing Day 4. President's Day 5. MLK Day 6. Valentine's Day 7. Thanksgiving (actual day or weekend) 8. Lunar New Year 9. St. Patrick's Day 10. April Fools' Day Honorable Mentions: Veterans' Day, Fat Tuesday, Easter, and Halloween Did I miss any? Did not pick Hannukah because it is 8 days so not sure which day to pick. Halloween snow is super cool. I experienced that in 1984. I think this thing coming up could rival some of the great late October / early November events of the past. Cold snaps in that time frame with a Nina usually lead to good things later. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Day 7 looks Familiar... 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: Day 7 looks Familiar... I sure don't like seeing that. Block is pinching off and far too much tilt. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Halloween snow is super cool. I experienced that in 1984. I think this thing coming up could rival some of the great late October / early November events of the past. Cold snaps in that time frame with a Nina usually lead to good things later. Kind of early to spike the football on something that’ll likely just be some 40/33 days with maybe some snow above 500’. Would love to be wrong but usually it’s best to bet on climo. There have been some anomalous things like April 2022 and even this summer…so we could follow the craziness with more craziness but this doesn’t seem solid to me IMO. 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 A bit after Day 8 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Well that is a bummer seeing the EPS mirroring the Op, unless you like tons of rain. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: The week ahead is likely to be very wet, with one or perhaps two separate atmospheric river events. What's unknown is whether or not the cold, arctic air will dig south into WA/OR, or hang up in southern BC. All models develop an Aleutian ridge just after Day 4 which then slowly shifts eastward into western Alaska by Day 6-7. It all depends on the orientation and degree of tilt of that blocking high. The next two days I think that picture will become a bit more clear. There's also a threat of wind along with the Rain Friday & Saturday 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Day 9 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Day 10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Thanks for the EPS maps nonetheless. It does look to be an active week ahead. Maybe 12z runs handle the block differently. Good night all. 12z GFS in 8 hours 12z ECMWF in 10 hours 10 minutes 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 This is pretty wildly cool! It is currently 52F degrees. The high temp for my place tomorrow is supposed to be 52F. So essentially the warmest part of the day is at night as temps will cool during the day tomorrow! This isn't too common but pretty cool. I can say right now, at 12:45am, will be the hottest it will be until till Friday when it reaches 55F! The rest of this week will be in the 40s!! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 On a positive note... (PNA did flip positive, but is now back negative) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 The control shows SEA dropping to 23 at day 10.5. 3 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 21 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Kind of early to spike the football on something that’ll likely just be some 40/33 days with maybe some snow above 500’. Would love to be wrong but usually it’s best to bet on climo. There have been some anomalous things like April 2022 and even this summer…so we could follow the craziness with more craziness but this doesn’t seem solid to me IMO. I never spiked the football. I said could. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 20 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Well that is a bummer seeing the EPS mirroring the Op, unless you like tons of rain. You're kind of missing the huge cold air mass being shown. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 How can anyone be disappointed by this? Just puzzling. 1 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 All the east coast weenies keep talking about a pattern change coming mid month that would put us back under a ridge and keep all the cold out east. Though most of those posts are CFS maps from like 500 hours out. 1 1 4 2 Quote 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 44 minutes ago, Cold Snap said: All the east coast weenies keep talking about a pattern change coming mid month that would put us back under a ridge and keep all the cold out east. Though most of those posts are CFS maps from like 500 hours out. Mmmhhhmmmm, yea, and the Giants were supposed to beat the Seahawks yesterday too. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 7 hours ago, gusky said: Hold your horses, I'll eat 4 ghost peppers at once if it snows more than 2 inches on the 8th/9th. Feel free to hold me to that Seriously. The GFS has a track record of grossly underestimating the ability of the Rockies, Coast Mountains, and Cascades to get in the way of cold air from the interior. A period of below-normal temperatures with lowland snow chances is looking increasingly likely, but I feel very safe saying it will not be as dramatically cold and snowy as some Goofus runs are claiming it will be. Goofus was calling for surface temperatures in the -20’s Celsius in this area last January. -15’s were more like it. And in January 2020 it was calling for -15’s and we got -10’s. Seems reasonable to add about 5˚C to whatever the GFS says temperatures will be in an outflow event. If this thing materializes, I will be pleased as punch with a trace to 4" of sloppy wet snow followed by a freeze into the mid-20’s F, because that is realistically about the best we can expect. 5 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Seriously. The GFS has a track record of grossly underestimating the ability of the Rockies, Coast Mountains, and Cascades to get in the way of cold air from the interior. A period of below-normal temperatures with lowland snow chances is looking increasingly likely, but I feel very safe saying it will not be as dramatically cold and snowy as some Goofus runs are claiming it will be. Goofus was calling for surface temperatures in the -20’s Celsius in this area last January. -15’s were more like it. And in January 2020 it was calling for -15’s and we got -10’s. Seems reasonable to add about 5˚C to whatever the GFS says temperatures will be in an outflow event. If this thing materializes, I will be pleased as punch with a trace to 4" of sloppy wet snow followed by a freeze into the mid-20’s F, because that is realistically about the best we can expect. GFS is certainly the drunk uncle for a reason but I will say over the last few years its usually the first to sniff out these big events before Euro and Gem catch up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: GFS is certainly the drunk uncle for a reason but I will say over the last few years its usually the first to sniff out these big events before Euro and Gem catch up. Indeed it was. And if you added about 5˚C to its surface temperature modellings, it ended up being quite accurate for our area. But the verbatim numbers were never to be taken seriously. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Jakewestsalem Posted October 31, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Got this pic yesterday afternoon from a hike into Marion Lake. Low clouds had obscured Three Finger Jack most of the morning but the deck lifted enough. 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 26 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Seriously. The GFS has a track record of grossly underestimating the ability of the Rockies, Coast Mountains, and Cascades to get in the way of cold air from the interior. A period of below-normal temperatures with lowland snow chances is looking increasingly likely, but I feel very safe saying it will not be as dramatically cold and snowy as some Goofus runs are claiming it will be. Goofus was calling for surface temperatures in the -20’s Celsius in this area last January. -15’s were more like it. And in January 2020 it was calling for -15’s and we got -10’s. Seems reasonable to add about 5˚C to whatever the GFS says temperatures will be in an outflow event. If this thing materializes, I will be pleased as punch with a trace to 4" of sloppy wet snow followed by a freeze into the mid-20’s F, because that is realistically about the best we can expect. 06z shows a completely reasonable temp of 3 degrees F (-16c) at Vancouver. And a 31/26 day in Portland. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Doinko said: 06z shows a completely reasonable temp of 3 degrees F (-16c) at Vancouver. Hopefully the GFS upgrade coming in a few weeks makes some big improvements in terms of surface conditions. Its pretty comical how extreme it can be... in both directions. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: 06z GFS looked a wee bit snowy for Western WA... Edit: Just noticed the 00z GFS was also incredibly snowy. So I guess the ticket to a great November was just getting me out of the state. Hopefully the same will be said for January! Cold too 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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