October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[The Blob]

4 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Off-topic. By the way, that explosion I heard was in fact a pipe bomb that was lit and thrown out of a car as seen on video. I've seen the video myself. It was far bigger than video could possibly do justice. I live 1 mile from there. As I mentioned after it exploded I could hear the blast wave, and then a loud 'THUD' hit the back (west facing) side of my house. I wonder if this was targeted intentional at that location for a reason. Anyhow.

00z GFS in 4 hours 30 minutes

The person who submitted the video to Fox12 said the neighborhood has gotten rough in the last year and homeless people camping on the street were recently kicked out.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, The Blob said:

The person who submitted the video to Fox12 said the neighborhood has gotten rough in the last year and homeless people camping on the street were recently kicked out.

Ohhh... Homeless people strike back?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[The Blob]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Ohhh... Homeless people strike back?

Quite possible. There have been shootings and other vandalism in that neighborhood.

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Day 4

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4.5 (Past 4 runs) I like that.

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Day 5

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 - Powerful 962mb low west of Vancouver Island.

[Cloud]

Rainfall totals thru 5 days… and there is a new powerful system knocking at the doors. 

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Day 7

[Cloud]

Wow, this thing is barreling straight into the tip of of the strait and Olympics. Could be a nice wind event around here if it holds. 

[Snownerd3000]

D**n gfs looking juicy so far. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[NWbyNW]

How we looking out there tonight?  Not good overall, but as some noted, conditions are improving a bit in Northwest Washington, Vancouver Island, and Metro Vancouver.  Winds are cleaning things up slightly there.  Also coastal Washington is now in the green as well, just the other day Aberdeen was seeing unhealthy air but clean air is starting to blow through. Just hours away from the rest of Washington's big improvement.  We will see improvement tonight and throughout tomorrow and then significant improvement come Friday.  

By noon tomorrow according the models, it should be so much better.  Strangely, NOAA is still saying we will be covered in thick smoke and get worse tomorrow... I have no idea what they are seeing, because nothing is showing that. The US models, nor the Canadian model align to what they are predicting.

 

After Friday's disturbance more autumn fronts will follow. At this point, a powerful low has its sights set on Western Washington by Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in heavy rain, mountain snow and potentially damaging winds by the middle of next week.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

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Day 10

 

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00z GEM, 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10

 

Looks very Ninaish.  This run keeps the heights up over the NE Pacific.  Nice!

[snow_wizard]

No SW flow anywhere on the GFS.  Everything comes from the W to NW.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Quiet Night Shift tonight 

[Anti Marine Layer]

I hope the Shivering reaction doesn't melt next spring.

[The Blob]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Quiet Night Shift tonight 

I'm at work so I have to step away every once in a while, but don't worry; there will still be lots of troll reacts.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Quiet Night Shift tonight 

Just got back in. Was having family dinner. Got the neon lights music going now!!

[Gradient Keeper]

ECMWF may be very slow, or not be available at all tonight.

[Meatyorologist]

Maybe some thunderstorms Saturday?

[Gradient Keeper]

We're up to FCST HR 6!

[Meatyorologist]

GFS long range is a MEAN -ENSO climo comeback. Pacific becomes dominated by heights rising in the Gulf.

[Gradient Keeper]

As Meaty mentioned the long range GFS is classic Nina. Gulf of Alaska ridge develops again and again ~140 W to 155 W with persistent anchor low resulting in multiple troughs in NWLY flow.

Day 10-16

[ShawniganLake]

6 hours ago, Gummy said:

Using the mostly complete data from NOAA, Seattle has had 8 occurrences with snowfall monthly totals equal or greater than 2 inches since 1950. So, not great odds but it does happen time to time.

I’m sure it’d be much more common up near the border.  Shawnigan Lake averages more than 4” in November and has a better than 40% chance of a snow day greater than 4” within the month of November 

[Gradient Keeper]

Sputtering along now. Day 1

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I got ya Rob, backup QB stepping in. Here's day 2

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 3

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 4

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 5

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 6

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 7

[Snownerd3000]

Man like a light switch. Fun to see this progress.