October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS shows that whatever ridging the Op run has it's an outlier. A very wet run with NO ridging at all.

[Doinko]

19 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

6z GEFS shows that whatever ridging the Op run has it's an outlier. A very wet run with NO ridging at all.

The 06 looks windy for that system on Tuesday/Wednesday next week especially in the Sound

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Doiinko said:

The 06 looks windy for that system on Tuesday/Wednesday next week especially in the Sound

That's something to keep an eye on as many model runs of the GFS/GEM/ECMWF have shown a deep low offshore. It is wind storm season after all.

12z GFS in 2 hours

[Rubus Leucodermis]

A mild 54˚F this morning with an AQI of 160.

[Cloud]

43 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

6z GEFS shows that whatever ridging the Op run has it's an outlier. A very wet run with NO ridging at all.

That op run felt like an outlier. And good to see it was. 

[Meatyorologist]

There is smoke in the lightrail station. 200' underground.

[Meatyorologist]

First frontal precip entering the area now

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

First frontal precip entering the area now

Mostly virga here. Only a few drops making it to the ground.

[MossMan]

Drizzle and smoke currently. I thought the smoke was supposed to largely be gone at this point. 

[LowerGarfield]

It was 39F when I got up. Currently 40F. Mostly clear.

[jakerepp]

Hey everyone! Haven't been on here in a while. Was waiting for the flip to switch.

My son just turned 1 last week and my house is all framed up right now. I've got 3 weeks left in Edmonds before we hit the road.

What does Saturday look like in terms of precip, at the moment? Just showers?

[LowerGarfield]

7 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Hey everyone! Haven't been on here in a while. Was waiting for the flip to switch.

My son just turned 1 last week and my house is all framed up right now. I've got 3 weeks left in Edmonds before we hit the road.

What does Saturday look like in terms of precip, at the moment? Just showers?

Where are you going?

[jakerepp]

2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Where are you going?

Goodyear, AZ.

 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Goodyear, AZ.

 

You are going to miss an epic amazing November here! 

[LowerGarfield]

2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Goodyear, AZ.

 

But no more snowfor you

[Randyc321]

17 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

And last post from me for a bit.  Here are the latest smoke model runs showing some of that clearing coming tonight in Washington and a bit later for Oregon.  Note one model isn't showing ground level smoke.  I just thought it showed the smoke sweeping away very good.

My gosh are we lucky to have seen smoke model forecasting really improve over the past three years.  Not that long ago, we didn't even have anything to look at.  Now we have at least three that are pretty decent.

 

 

Sadly this forecast was not right.  It's not clearing out at all yet.  

[MossMan]

Well my grand plans are shot. Was planning on taking today off to blow off all of the ash on everything I don’t want ash on and then get all of the patio furniture put away for the year since ash was supposed to no longer be falling from the sky. And also mow. But now it’s raining so all of the ash I was going to simply blow off will now be a lovely goo. I want tons of rain but I was expecting today to be dry and was going to work on the property all day with clean air to be fully ready for the fall storms. Very disappointing suffocating day so far. 

 

Feel free to fling me hotdogs. 

[jakerepp]

24 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

But no more snowfor you

I prefer to look at it as 'no more heartache'.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Mist and smoke

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

I have a feeling this thing Friday evening through Saturday is going to bust pretty hard from Portland south. Maybe .10'' - .20'' before the rain tapers to showers late Friday night. Scattered downpours on Saturday. Meanwhile, Longview to Seattle will do well. Portland is right on the edge and could catch the southern edge of the steady precip.

[Randyc321]

8 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Day 9

Looks mighty stormy!  I like.

[Phil]

Earliest freeze in decades here this AM. That 1988 analog is an interesting one, we’ve been following it to a tee since September.

Only thing now is we’ve entered a subseasonal +AAM cycle which looks to stick around for at least a couple of weeks, possibly longer.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

First frontal precip entering the area now

Ahead of schedule 

[FroYoBro]

The air is killing us.

[Omegaraptor]

21 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I have a feeling this thing Friday evening through Saturday is going to bust pretty hard from Portland south. Maybe .10'' - .20'' before the rain tapers to showers late Friday night. Scattered downpours on Saturday. Meanwhile, Longview to Seattle will do well. Portland is right on the edge and could catch the southern edge of the steady precip.

The NAM is usually a more accurate picture of valley floor QPF than the lower res major models are. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

There is smoke in the lightrail station. 200' underground.

that's some pretty ingenuitive smoke 

[Phishy Wx]

37 last hour with what looks like Smog

[Skagit Weather]

I always wondered how they made liquid smoke and now I know. AQI is 250 with drips falling from the sky.

[Anti Marine Layer]

The inversion must go

[Kayla]

It's always interesting with snowstorms out here this time of the year. Very similar to PNW lowlands snowstorms, most of the time it is all dependent on precip rates and where the heaviest band sets up. Right now the models continue to insist that Bozeman will be under a very heavy band and dump 12-18" of snow this weekend. Huge bust potential with this though.

Right now I'd go with 2-18" of snowfall haha!

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I always wondered how they made liquid smoke and now I know. AQI is 250 with drips falling from the sky.

Horrific morning. 

[MossMan]

Once again I blame Tim and his posts yesterday saying we would be well on our way to clean air by now and didn’t mention anything about ash rain falling. You let me down again and I am greatly disappointed in you.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

It's the fires that need to get dumped on. Drizzle from low level marine layer or radiation fog won't help anything. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

It's the fires that need to get dumped on. Drizzle from low level marine layer or radiation fog won't help anything. 

I think that what we’re now seeing is more than that. It’s just a very weak system without much moisture, so it’s mostly virga. Tomorrow’s system will be jucier, and it will be followed by others.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

34 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

that's some pretty ingenuitive smoke 

During the deadly “fogs” of London (which were really sulphuric acid mists caused by coal smoke interacting with fog), sometimes the reduced visibility would be noted inside theatres.

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

During the deadly “fogs” of London (which were really sulphuric acid mists caused by coal smoke interacting with fog), sometimes the reduced visibility would be noted inside theatres.

There was a winter month I believe in 1896 of weather obs where London’s station recorded 0 hours of sunshine for the whole month.

Cloud cover was actually below average that month and the complete lack of sunshine was caused entirely by smog. Outside of London it was a sunnier than average month.

[TT-SEA]

22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Once again I blame Tim and his posts yesterday saying we would be well on our way to clean air by now and didn’t mention anything about ash rain falling. You let me down again and I am greatly disappointed in you.  

Yeah... this sucks.    No idea why it can't scour out.  The smoke models were pretty clear that it would happen this morning.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS has entirely new ideas for later next week.   Probably wrong. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... this sucks.    No idea why it can't scour out.  The smoke models were pretty clear that it would happen this morning.

well, we should get those pesky algorithms out there to do some work and blow out the smoke

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

well, we should get those pesky algorithms out there to do some work and blow out the smoke

Probably similar phenomenon with the models always scouring out low level cold air too fast.