Jump to content

October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx

Recommended Posts

19 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

When will the models stop saying there is going to be rain a week out and it never comes?  The smoke has been near constant for two weeks now here in the North Sound.  Can we please get some rain?  Gosh... 

The good news is that the models aren't showing any rain for at least two weeks so they can't let you down.

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's the 850mb anomaly. The 2m temp anomaly is closer to average. 
cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_3.png

At that range I would use the 850s.  If it's dry with below normal 850s that would certainly be cold at the surface.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like a shot at some cool continental air getting in here early next week.  The problem with the pattern the ECMWF shows is it would probably be fire weather.  The 18z GFS has moved toward the dry cold front solution the ECMWF shows.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Meanwhile another near 80 day here after a low in the upper 40s.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I don’t get the mushroom (of any type) thing…I find them and olives completely disgusting. 

There’s wild ones that are a lot more flavourful than the typical store-bought Agaricus bisporus “button” mushroom. Not going to mention my fave species because I've seen chanterelle hunters pass them up and leave them for me, not even knowing how choice they are.

Was intimidated by the thought of eating wild mushrooms for many years (there are deadly ones out there, after all), until someone once observed on a hike that I was casually snacking on edible wild plants that were closely related to the deadly poisonous water hemlock. Rule number one in both plants and fungi is that if you’re not 100% sure what it is, don’t eat it.

  • Like 2
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like a shot at some cool continental air getting in here early next week.  The problem with the pattern the ECMWF shows is it would probably be fire weather.  The 18z GFS has moved toward the dry cold front solution the ECMWF shows.

My money is on the fire weather.

We get Santa Ana winds now, why not get them in October like California does?

  • Excited 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

There’s wild ones that are a lot more flavourful than the typical store-bought Agaricus bisporus “button” mushroom. Not going to mention my fave species because I've seen chanterelle hunters pass them up and leave them for me, not even knowing how choice they are.

Was intimidated by the thought of eating wild mushrooms for many years (there are deadly ones out there, after all), until someone once observed on a hike that I was casually snacking on edible wild plants that were closely related to the deadly poisonous water hemlock. Rule number one in both plants and fungi is that if you’re not 100% sure what it is, don’t eat it.

When I was much younger we used to pick mushrooms and make tea out of them. Tasted awful but then later… wow. 

  • Like 4
  • Excited 2
  • lol 2
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It'll come.  Really hard to say whether it will be a cold blast or a wet blast though.  1990 was kind of interesting in that it turned both wet and cold, although it turned in early October and that ship has obviously sailed this year.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

October is the one month during the rainy season where it’s possible to receive a months worth of rain in 1 day.  Too soon to write this one off.  Wouldn’t be too surprised to see the flood gates open before Halloween. 

1942 did just that and it has to be called an analog at this point.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It'll come.  Really hard to say whether it will be a cold blast or a wet blast though.  1990 was kind of interesting in that it turned both wet and cold, although it turned in early October and that ship has obviously sailed this year.

Doesn’t have to be a blast at all. Could just slowly trickle into climo. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like 77 or 78 at KSEA today. We'll know for sure shortly. This is very pleasant weather. Too bad we couldn't have had it back in August 🙄

 

2022-23 Winter:

11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25"

12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace

12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7

1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0"

Total: 6.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Doesn’t have to be a blast at all. Could just slowly trickle into climo. 

Not gonna happen IMO.  We have yet to see climo this entire year.  Records have been set all over the place.  In the spring they were cold and wet records, now they are warmth and dry records.

  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Looking very likely we could smash the record for +70 days in October. Already at 3 so far and the record is 5 in 2014. Starting to look like the real transit to fall weather could take longer than it did in 2012. 

It might be worth a dig through all the records of the 20th century to find the top ones.  It shouldn't be too hard since cold Octobers can be ruled out right off the bat.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not gonna happen IMO.  We have yet to see climo this entire year.  Records have been set all over the place.  In the spring they were cold and wet records, now they are warmth and dry records.

Could happen.   Can't just be record extremes forever.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

And still no sympathetic warming of the troposphere.  Intriguing.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Could happen.   Can't just be record extremes forever.

I would expect a gradual (a period of years) relaxation toward normalcy not all at once.  This might be even more crazy than the 1930s, but there are still some boxes that need to be checked to be able to say that for sure.

  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would expect a gradual (a period of years) relaxation toward normalcy not all at once.  This might be even more crazy than the 1930s, but there are still some boxes that need to be checked to be able to say that for sure.

I am saying that one of the options for later this fall and winter is just normal rain with some dry days mixed and nothing too exciting.    It does not always have to be crazy extreme.   See 2002-03.

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Current global temp maps show an enormous area of anomalous cold over Asia.  Just need something to tap into it to get things going.

  • Windy 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

 

All Ninos too.  Things are really messed up right now.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

 

And all of those years were moderate to strong El Niños...lol.

  • Like 2

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

And all of those years were moderate to strong El Niños...lol.

1942 is the only Nina year I know of where we almost pulled off a bone dry October.  The last two days of the month had a soaker that prevented it.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

1942 is the only Nina year I know of where we almost pulled off a bone dry October.  The last two days of the month had a soaker that prevented it.

I'm honestly beginning to wonder if we should start looking at Niños as potential wintertime analogs with the way the atmosphere is acting!

  • Like 1
  • scream 1

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not gonna happen IMO.  We have yet to see climo this entire year.  Records have been set all over the place.  In the spring they were cold and wet records, now they are warmth and dry records.

So maybe you’re due for climo.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...