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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx

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1 hour ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I have a feeling this thing Friday evening through Saturday is going to bust pretty hard from Portland south. Maybe .10'' - .20'' before the rain tapers to showers late Friday night. Scattered downpours on Saturday. Meanwhile, Longview to Seattle will do well. Portland is right on the edge and could catch the southern edge of the steady precip.

Canadian mesoscale models are definitely further north with the main precip than most of the other models. You/they could be right. 

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Well my grand plans are shot. Was planning on taking today off to blow off all of the ash on everything I don’t want ash on and then get all of the patio furniture put away for the year since ash was supposed to no longer be falling from the sky. And also mow. But now it’s raining so all of the ash I was going to simply blow off will now be a lovely goo. I want tons of rain but I was expecting today to be dry and was going to work on the property all day with clean air to be fully ready for the fall storms. Very disappointing suffocating day so far. 

 

Feel free to fling me hotdogs. 

The rain will Wash the ash away. Give it a week or so. 

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So sad, everything is happening much slower than the most of the models were predicting.  They were saying the smoke would be considerably cut by 11AM this morning in the runs yesterday.  That clearly isn't happening... Even the current runs are wrong as to what is actually happening. :( 

We are getting some precipitation though. 

1792421560_ScreenShot2022-10-20at10_07_51AM.thumb.png.5e57b520976a40802eae6c5a7b399a63.png167334884_ScreenShot2022-10-20at10_10_32AM.thumb.png.d59f294806bd60b86559dd5ca6ff00a2.png

 

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NOAA was the only one saying the smoke was going to stick around.  KOMO, Q13, KIRO, KING, me, all said by mid morning the smoke would be largely cut into.  So I am not sure what the experts at NOAA saw, but they appear to have been right despite none of the 3 smoke models showing the smoke sticking around. 

Even this morning, local news outlets are still saying the smoke is going to go away today.  This as of updates from 8AM this morning.

 

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Screen Shot 2022-10-20 at 10.46.19 AM.png

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16 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The good news is that the CFS has us under the influence of a massive ridge for a couple of weeks in the middle of November. You know what that means... trough city baby.

 

 

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Just hoping we don't get stuck in the godawful pattern where ARs constantly pound BC and northern WA while Oregon is stuck under subtropical airmasses ad infinitum.

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1 hour ago, NWbyNW said:

Latest runs... They keep saying the smoke will go away but it's not happening as fast as they predict.

CMC_OR_SFCSMK_smokeforecast.gif

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Is this clearing as most recently projected on this so far inaccurate model in line with fropa timewise?  Seems like that is whet it's going to take to push this out.  Smoke levels seem to be actually increasing in some areas right now, it needs to go.

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1 hour ago, NWbyNW said:

NOAA was the only one saying the smoke was going to stick around.  KOMO, Q13, KIRO, KING, me, all said by mid morning the smoke would be largely cut into.  So I am not sure what the experts at NOAA saw, but they appear to have been right despite none of the 3 smoke models showing the smoke sticking around. 

Even this morning, local news outlets are still saying the smoke is going to go away today.  This as of updates from 8AM this morning.

 

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Screen Shot 2022-10-20 at 10.46.19 AM.png

I was thinking about tomorrow's afternoon commute earlier this morning.  It is likely to be a nightmare.  WSP is going to have it's busiest day in a long time.  The roads will be very slick in some spots.

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19 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Is this clearing as most recently projected on this so far inaccurate model in line with fropa timewise?  Seems like that is whet it's going to take to push this out.  Smoke levels seem to be actually increasing in some areas right now, it needs to go.

It's more that the smoke models underestimated the strength of the inversions. This initial front has clearly not been enough to break the cap. The lowlands will likely need to wait until tomorrow afternoon when the much stronger front arrives before seeing an improvement in air quality. 

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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The Washington Cascades just bumped up into severe drought. It will be interesting to see how long (and how much precip) it will take for us to get back to normal.

20221018_west_date_drought.thumb.png.a2579e8d5f4325607ada10d03fe3211d.png

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Just hoping we don't get stuck in the godawful pattern where ARs constantly pound BC and northern WA while Oregon is stuck under subtropical airmasses ad infinitum.

Oregon can have our ARs, especially if it means cold air is getting sucked through the Fraser Canyon on the north side of the low......

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