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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

No ridge November!

Oh there will be plenty…over Alaska and bridging with one in Greenland, locking in the SE ridge feature.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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5 hours ago, Phil said:

Earliest freeze in decades here this AM. That 1988 analog is an interesting one, we’ve been following it to a tee since September.

Only thing now is we’ve entered a subseasonal +AAM cycle which looks to stick around for at least a couple of weeks, possibly longer.

78FDE83B-025A-4070-81F4-F9003D84E7B4.png

Larry Cosgrove is  very bullish on  this winter he been talking about it  both on twitter and facebook 

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Some cracks in the -ENSO armor already manifesting. This is a significant deposition of AAM in the tropics, which will likely propagate poleward with time.

 

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19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Some cracks in the -ENSO armor already manifesting. This is a significant deposition of AAM in the tropics, which will likely propagate poleward with time.

 

Not good...

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

How does this impact our weather?

Flips the PNA back to positive which I believe means the Arctic goodies all end up out east and there is little action here. Hopefully it'll still be exciting tho. I think there will be fun for everyone even if it's brief.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Flips the PNA back to positive which I believe means the Arctic goodies all end up out east and there is little action here. Hopefully it'll still be exciting tho. I think there will be fun for everyone even if it's brief.

The PNA has been positive for a while now in the first place!

It has finally started to take the nosedive to the -PNA.

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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5 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The PNA has been positive for a while now in the first place!

It has finally started to take the nosedive to the -PNA.

This wouldn't affect things much until late Nov it would flip back to positive after a brief negative period, which is shitty because late Nov is when I hope things start really ramping up in the Arctic air dept here. Just seems like a -PNA is rarely negative for prolonged periods while it will be positive for extended stretches. Frustrating if that's indeed how it works.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

That's not the updated one. They do an update at the end of the month.

US_outlook_October2022_temperature_20221001.png

US_outlook_October2022_precipitation_20221001.png

Well yea, but that's cheating. We knew at that time that the first couple of weeks of October were going to absolutely torch. The point is that the one issued today is close to the time of the month they initially issued the October forecast and we can see how that tuned out. 

 

The bigger point is... don't put a lot of stock in monthly or seasonal forecasts. 

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

I have no concerns. We'll transition to neutral after Christmas, then maybe a Nino in the Spring.

The issue here would be the atmospheric configuration and system state throwing a goddam wrench into the plan.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Well yea, but that's cheating. We knew at that time that the first couple of weeks of October were going to absolutely torch. The point is that the one issued today is close to the time of the month they initially issued the October forecast and we can see how that tuned out. 

 

The bigger point is... don't put a lot of stock in monthly or seasonal forecasts. 

They'll update it again. It's not perfect.

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The oceanic aspect of things is fine. I just get concerned with that notion of an atmospheric flip back to a +PNA for an extended period independent of the ONI.

But I agree that things will probly be fine. And we will all see something fun. I'm still all in.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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