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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The oceanic aspect of things is fine. I just get concerned with that notion of an atmospheric flip back to a +PNA for an extended period independent of the ONI.

But I agree that things will probly be fine. And we will all see something fun.

I don't really care for the control 

The mean keeps it barley positive or neutral/negative in the extended 

ecmwf-weeklies-all2-avg-pna-box-6224000.png

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

ecmwf-weeklies-c00-west-snow_46day-0198400.png

ecmwf-weeklies-c00-west-total_precip_inch-0198400.png

This is the way.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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37 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Flips the PNA back to positive which I believe means the Arctic goodies all end up out east and there is little action here. Hopefully it'll still be exciting tho. I think there will be fun for everyone even if it's brief.

Considering the last few months were deeply -ENSO, I don't think any of us will notice a difference.

2019 was the only tolerable summer recently and it was +ENSO.

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6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Considering the last few months were deeply -ENSO, I don't think any of us will notice a difference.

2019 was the only tolerable summer recently and it was +ENSO.

For me, 2021 was the most tolerable summer I've ever experienced, and it was a -ENSO, which is very unusual.

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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2 hours ago, Randyc321 said:

Is this clearing as most recently projected on this so far inaccurate model in line with fropa timewise?  Seems like that is whet it's going to take to push this out.  Smoke levels seem to be actually increasing in some areas right now, it needs to go.

At the time I post, I always put the latest projections up unless I state otherwise.  We are seeing a very minor change hours later now, as locations in the southbound are moving from hazardous condition to very unhealthy.  Meanwhile conditions, while hazardous mostly, have improved in area around Seattle.  The north sound has seen a decline from Everett, to Whidbey, and the Quimper Peninsula.  I will post the latest smoke model for you below. They are still completely wrong.  They say we should be seeing huge improvements as of now. It is showing smoke free by 10pm tonight, while yesterday it was showing smoke free by mid morning today.  I will post all three models, all of which predict smoke free but the evening today, and all of which have changed from their original forecasts.

HRR_WA_SFCSMK_smokeforecast.thumb.gif.f93a57d629c48f12318e2e1a6c94fc9d.gifCMC_WA_SFCSMK_smokeforecast.thumb.gif.8099cf9f92e115a6bb73387495354e0d.gif670752273_ScreenShot2022-10-20at2_09_49PM.thumb.png.076bca1c2ffb1f35077eabdea4f001c2.png

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8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Considering the last few months were deeply -ENSO, I don't think any of us will notice a difference.

2019 was the only tolerable summer recently and it was +ENSO.

I just don't know if -ENSO, +ENSO, Neutral if it even matters in terms of long range forecasting. It's always a roll of the dice, crapshoot, pin the tail on the weather donkey.

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Is that what I am now? I have been diminished to that? Devolve from what I once was? My reputation has been completely shot now!

00z ECMWF in 8 hours 36 minutes

Not talking to you, BLI Snowman was talking to @TigerWoodsLibido.

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I just don't know if -ENSO, +ENSO, Neutral if it even matters in terms of long range forecasting. It's always a roll of the dice, crapshoot, pin the tail on the weather donkey.

And with the ever-changing climate it seems like ENSO matters less these days than ever....

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1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Not good...

Not necessarily a bad thing if it produces a +WPO type pattern, since that augments WAFz and puts pressure on the PV.

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12 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Beautiful view overlooking Port Gardner today... Let's play, do you see the NAVY ship? First one to spot it gets a prize!

Morning: 

DSCN1673.thumb.JPG.eef1ba693122175fbbfbe4227184b99f.JPG

 

Today:DSCN1676.thumb.JPG.eb6f29d839b847d915f5cf06fa1e2465.JPG

 

 

I made it out in the morning photo but in the afternoon? I can barely even get the shape of it!

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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I just want strong blocking this winter. Only a handful of major PNW cities are able to get snow from a Pacific storm pattern. The rest of the region needs some form of Arctic air interacting with Pacific moisture. 2010-11 had strong blocking. It didn't always benefit us, but when it did, we ended up having high impact events. November 2010 was an impressive event and so was February 2011.

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51 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Euro weeklies say....trust the process

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom-0198400.png

That type of pattern often evolves to be very cold. Looks like an outcome driven by a phase-7/IPWP centered MJO/low pass.

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Just now, Sonny Summers said:

Can you imagine the traffic on this site if something like that transpires?

It got crazy in February 2021 and 2022 on my other weather forum

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Does either ENSO cycle favor a weaker PV?

ENSO alone doesn’t correlate to PV strength in DJF, though there is some correlation between the seasonal timing of SSW events.

QBO, intraseasonal forcings/dAAMt source(s), and timing of such are what modulate the PV to a statistically significant degree. 

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4 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

I just want strong blocking this winter. Only a handful of major PNW cities are able to get snow from a Pacific storm pattern. The rest of the region needs some form of Arctic air interacting with Pacific moisture. 2010-11 had strong blocking. It didn't always benefit us, but when it did, we ended up having high impact events. November 2010 was an impressive event and so was February 2011.

So do I! It's the only way I can get crazy snowstorms in winter!

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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My guesses for the winter, not really based on anything:

November: Below average temps Above average precip

December: Average temps average precip (cold first half warm second half)

January: Warm and slightly wet

February: cold and dry

March: average and dry

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5 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

Can you imagine the traffic on this site if something like that transpires?

Traffic stalling for days! People stranding their computers and simply writing letters to the forum instead. It would be dreadful!  lol 

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2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

My guesses for the winter, not really based on anything:

November: Below average temps Above average precip

December: Average temps average precip (cold first half warm second half)

January: Warm and slightly wet

February: cold and dry

March: average and dry

My guess for winter…

November: windstorm, flooding, snow.

December: flooding, snow, windstorm. 

January: Dry/smoky, with highs in the 70’s. 

February: Snow.

March: Wet snow that will destroy my carport again. 

 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

If winter delivers this year it’ll probably be either early December or February again. 
 

No reason to think January will deliver. It simply doesn’t anymore. Best we can hope for in that month is average.

January is due MBG. I doubt the string of Januarys underperforming will continue and I doubt Feb will continue to produce big snowstorms. Law of averages 

 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/momentum-isnt-magic-vindicating-the-hot-hand-with-the-mathematics-of-streaks/

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Just now, Phishy Wx said:

well we don't live in OK, everything here has been a turd except 2019 in recent memory in regards to summer

That's true, I expected a nasty summer in 2021, but nothing of the sort came.

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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