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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


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1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I was going to say it looks a tad on the unfinished side to be moving into it already.

Won't be moving in until April/May.

Moving in with the brother in law until then. He hates cooking and I enjoy cooking so it's a win win.

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Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 90.7 (some data missing)

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 13

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 6

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.9''

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Just now, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Lurker since Jan 2019. Finally decided to make an account. Just here to share my only prediction for the season. 

Big weather event coming Thurs Dec 15 when Seahawks host 49ers and possibly another around New Years when Seahawks host Jets (1/1/23).

Analogs:
1. Hannukah Eve Storm Thurs Dec 14, 2006 vs 49ers
2. Holmgren good-bye Snow Game Dec 31, 2008 vs Jets


History doesn't repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes? (Just kidding but maybe someone who knows math could say the astronomical odds of having similar events years apart and 1 day later...)

Thanks for posting! Good to have new input from people!

Also, you see some things as I do about this coming winter. Many on here are going to be very happy.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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Still looking good for Medford

Latest.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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27 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Lurker since Jan 2019. Finally decided to make an account. Just here to share my only prediction for the season. 

Big weather event coming Thurs Dec 15 when Seahawks host 49ers and possibly another around New Years when Seahawks host Jets (1/1/23).

Analogs:
1. Hannukah Eve Storm Thurs Dec 14, 2006 vs 49ers
2. Holmgren good-bye Snow Game Dec 31, 2008 vs Jets


History doesn't repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes? (Just kidding but maybe someone who knows math could say the astronomical odds of having similar events years apart and 1 day later...)

 

Seems like 2022 would be the year of weird where something like that could happen. 

Welcome to the forum and to the chaos!

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7 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Temps don't look great for snow though. I wonder what it's picking up on. (Or maybe just those members are cold) 

ecmwf-ensemble-KMFR-daily_tmin_tmax-6612800.png

Those temps look lovely for me! Finally feels like fall season it's here! 

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3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_33.png

NAM looks interesting in the valley tomorrow

Maybe a few bolts.

  • Storm 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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53 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Thanks for posting! Good to have new input from people!

Also, you see some things as I do about this coming winter. Many on here are going to be very happy.

I have the same feeling about this winter as well! Especially January because the models showed the past 2 were supposed to be epic and we pretty much sat under ridges the entire time. This being the 3rd year Niña just gives me a feeling the 3rd times the charm and we are going to break the curse this year. Even though January has been on quite the warming trend I don’t see why it still can’t be a good month if February is still able to be good.

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26 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I have the same feeling about this winter as well! Especially January because the models showed the past 2 were supposed to be epic and we pretty much sat under ridges the entire time. This being the 3rd year Niña just gives me a feeling the 3rd times the charm and we are going to break the curse this year. Even though January has been on quite the warming trend I don’t see why it still can’t be a good month if February is still able to be good.

Your last statement is exactly why I still have hope for January.  If Jan and Feb were both stuck in the warm rut, and only December was able to get cold I would be much more concerned.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Hopefully we will be able to hold onto the possible early November cold snap with future model runs.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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January will come around one day. Very nearly did in a huge way in 2020

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 hour ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Lurker since Jan 2019. Finally decided to make an account. Just here to share my only prediction for the season. 

Big weather event coming Thurs Dec 15 when Seahawks host 49ers and possibly another around New Years when Seahawks host Jets (1/1/23).

Analogs:
1. Hannukah Eve Storm Thurs Dec 14, 2006 vs 49ers
2. Holmgren good-bye Snow Game Dec 31, 2008 vs Jets


History doesn't repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes? (Just kidding but maybe someone who knows math could say the astronomical odds of having similar events years apart and 1 day later...)

 

Seems like 2022 would be the year of weird where something like that could happen. 

Lets make it a trifecta and add a snow game against the Raiders 11/27.  16 years to the day of the snow and flash freeze game against the Packers on MNF.

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17 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

January will come around one day. Very nearly did in a huge way in 2020

Indeed.  We may get three big ones in a decade once we get the monkey off our backs.  It still blows my mind we used to get a super cold one at least once a decade prior to the 1980s.  Off the top of my head, these were all colder than anything we have had since 1969.

1862, 1868, 1875, 1888, 1890, 1907, 1909, 1916, 1929, 1930, 1937, 1949, 1950, 1957, 1963, 1969

Northern areas were also very cold in January 1911.  1913, 1922 and 1943 also deserve honorable mention they were all about as cold as Jan 1979 and 1980.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It did in Whatcom County and the BC Lower Mainland. But not much further south than that.

I think the good stuff almost made it to Everett.  That was close to being something great for many of us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

January will come around one day. Very nearly did in a huge way in 2020

I mean it almost did this year as well to an extent. Remember how all the models had the cold and snow continuing for the foreseeable future until at least mid January? Unfortunately that didn't come to pass, but the first half of January could have been very cold.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 7.3"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75"

2022-23: Tr (11/7: Tr, 11/29: Flakes, 11/30: Flakes, 12/1: Flakes, 12/2: Tr)

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Whatcom County has undoubtedly seen the biggest change in January vs the old days.  They used to get cold ones all the time, and lately they have only done slightly better than places like Seattle in that month.  1911 was a definite classic with Clearbrook averaging 27.7 while Sedro Woolley had 33.5, and Snoqualmie Falls 35.6 for monthly temp averages.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Whatcom County has undoubtedly seen the biggest change in January vs the old days.  They used to get cold ones all the time, and lately they have only done slightly better than places like Seattle in that month.  1911 was a definite classic with Clearbrook averaging 27.7 while Sedro Woolley had 33.5, and Snoqualmie Falls 35.6 for monthly temp averages.

A 0/-4 day with 4" of snow that winter.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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D27C2EDC-EE36-4AF1-A988-8A44D285A5EF.jpeg

I know it's Clearbrook, but this is still an unreal cold snap for a sea level location west of the Cascades.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Mega block on the 18z GFS again.  The details aren't quite as tasty as the 12z, but details are pointless to worry about at this point.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Fraser outflow gets going at the very end of the run.  For now I'm just glad to see such a strong blocking signal in the general sweet spot.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1911 also had the mid April snow and the infamous 11/11/11 kold kraziness.

That November cold snap was short but impressive.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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That is a crazy strong signal for almost 10 days out on an ensemble.  Something is brewing.

1667455200-yBVVjK6plCY.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Moving along as expected so far.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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The very first Winter Weather Advisory of The Season Has Begun for parts of the Cascades!  We got storms lined up all week and snow and cold temps in the mountains! 

At the moment, mostly scattered showers.1987023296_ScreenShot2022-10-24at4_56_00PM.thumb.png.b1985ca4e098bc5147d59e9299484d41.png

Thanks Accuweather (my least favorite weather source) for the handy little map.

image.jpeg.2096e6a73b144c414b99479b8cb75059.jpeg

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Sun is out. Partly cloudy and up to 59F. Looks like we got down to 48F last night so we will be about +2.3F on the day. Very pleasant and warm-ish fall day with a few showers at times but none for several hours now.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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Beautiful sun breaks mixed with clouds that are white, gray, and deep gray.  There are showers one minute, then none the next.  Very frigid cold out there today, much colder than the temps say. It has that biting crisp in the air here with a cool ocean nip to it. Sitting at 50F.

DSCN1716.JPG

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5 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Glad you are ok.  Did they cause any destruction?  

The Mustang tornado reportedly partially unroofed homes and knocked down powerlines, all others appeared to have caused minor tree damage.

 

EDIT: Forgot to mention the locations for the other three.

#2: On US-177 near Macomb
#3: On US-177 closer to Town
#4: US-377 near Konawa

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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1 minute ago, The Blob said:

Had some thunder over my house. 

The really weird part is that despite the tornadoes within the squall line, there was never a lightning strike or any hail!

Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

That November cold snap was short but impressive.

Pretty good stretch from late December to early January that winter too, following our early season cold. Portland-Vancouver had one of its bigger sleet/ice storms on record on 1/6/1912 before the pattern flipped, and it was one of the coldest winters on record east of the Rockies. Kind of a souped-up version of 2003-04.

Edited by BLI snowman
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33 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Sun is out. Partly cloudy and up to 59F. Looks like we got down to 48F last night so we will be about +2.3F on the day. Very pleasant and warm-ish fall day with a few showers at times but none for several hours now.

Daily total of 0.04" here (QPF was 1/4"-1/2"). 0.21" total on the month. Top-tier dry October not out of the question.

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Amazingly I've only had two 50+ lows so far this month.  If that holds it wouldn't surprise me if that's a personal record for October lows below 50.  Weird given the still very high month to date average.

EDIT:  Just looked and the very chilly October 2019 had all lows below 50.

 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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The latest ECMWF weeklies have PNA and EPO both being minus through the entire run except the early part where the EPO is positive.  That means weak jet and troughy for the NW.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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