October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 Ohhh how I wish this was at Day 3-4!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 3 minutes

[bainbridgekid]

Nearly midnight and it’s 71 degrees in Chicago.

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

Looks like a Cat 4 hurricane on this run too in early November

[Chewbacca Defense]

58 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'm in Spokane and have never used snow tires on my 2012 Outback.  I run some top of the line Cooper All Seasons.  never had any issues.

Interesting....I asked my mother in law about it, she has owned Subarus forever, and lived in Hood River/The Dalles for a while before moving to Great Falls.  She talked to her "tire guy" and he said on the east side of the continental divide, they could get away with "all seasons" with the triple peaks because the snow is so dry.  He also told her that in parts of Montana west of the continental divide like Missoula folks needed a set of winter tires because of the higher moisture content in the snow.  She said it was the same in Hood River/The Dalles.  I would assume that would be the case for Spokane but maybe not?

For my son, the fact that he will be hitting to road at 4am, and getting to Hamilton just before 5am, I'm a little concerned about what he is going to find for the road conditions.  Fortunately, he is on the interstate and a major state highway, but still, the canyon south of Bellingham can get downright nasty in a hurry.

[Doinko]

GFS clown range has a major hurricane

[North_County]

1 hour ago, Jginmartini said:

I thought you said “SNOW”….now my hearts pumping….ugh 

My bad. No snow. Yet.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Nearly midnight and it’s 71 degrees in Chicago.

The craziness continues.

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEM

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 3 minutes

Truly amazing how fast the models have changed their tune on early November.  As always the details of any blocking features will be subject to rapid change.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I feel like a night shift is in order, Rob.

[snow_wizard]

At this point it appears a cold Halloween might be on the table with that first cold shot.

[jcmcgaffey]

Looking like Stevens will get 3-4ft of snow over the next 7-10 days 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I feel like a night shift is in order, Rob.

Could be! I hope I'll be awake.

00z ECMWF in 34 minutes

[selkirks]

15 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Looking like Stevens will get 3-4ft of snow over the next 7-10 days 

The start of the persistent weak layer we'll be dealing with in January! 

[bainbridgekid]

11 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Looking like Stevens will get 3-4ft of snow over the next 7-10 days 

IDK about that. Looks to me like the snow level will bounce around between 3,500 and 5,500 feet. Stevens will get periods of rain between each snowfall which will probably keep much from piling up at pass level. It’s too early in the season for any cold East wind helping out the passes so they’ll have to rely on cold enough upper level air masses.

Does look like the upper slopes there will get a lot though.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 8

[HuskyMaestro]

31 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

GFS clown range has a major hurricane

Feels reminiscent of Hurricane Iota back in 2020. Hopefully it dissipates in the clown range.

[Cloud]

It says NOPE.. I'm going back the other way. 

[HuskyMaestro]

17 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I feel like a night shift is in order, Rob.

During the summer I didn't sleep until 2 AM and it felt dead and surreal on here to be the only one online at times. Here's for some great night shifts from here on out!

[jcmcgaffey]

10 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

IDK about that. Looks to me like the snow level will bounce around between 3,500 and 5,500 feet. Stevens will get periods of rain between each snowfall which will probably keep much from piling up at pass level. It’s too early in the season for any cold East wind helping out the passes so they’ll have to rely on cold enough upper level air masses.

Does look like the upper slopes there will get a lot though.

For sure. I meant in terms of snowfall. The 7-10 day is looking really promising and hopefully doesn’t get too watered down. The upper slopes is what really matters for ski season and they looked to get a good base going. 

[Cold Snap]

4 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

During the summer I didn't sleep until 2 AM and it felt dead and surreal on here to be the only one online at times. Here's for some great night shifts from here on out!

Looking forward the night shifts this winter! It’s gonna be EPIC!!!!!!!!

[HuskyMaestro]

7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It says NOPE.. I'm going back the other way. 

Professor: “The exam is today” 

18z: 

[Doinko]

Another tornado today maybe?

 

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Professor: “The exam is today” 

18z: 

Yup... it's literally me trying to sabotage the latest  model run and showed up to the exam the day after all confused. 

In all seriousness, was just catching up on the runs today saw these hilarious frames! Thus, the meme.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[MossMan]

Up to .92” on the day and it’s currently dumping! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Not often we see the EURO, GEM, and GFS in sync like this at Day 6.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Not often we see the EURO, GEM, and GFS in sync like this at Day 6.

Just what I was thinking.  I think I like the finest details on the ECMWF the best though.  Looking good for at least a minor cold shot.

[Gradient Keeper]

Do you guys and gals prefer me to post the past 4 runs and model comparisons like this? or? it just takes a bit longer as the ECMWF hi-res runs slower.

[bainbridgekid]

26 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Up to .92” 6" on the day and it’s currently dumping! 

Won't be much longer before you post something like this. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Kolk1604]

Hoping I don't jinx this, but this is Nov 1 and 5 AM

Love the trend of the 850s getting colder 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Do you guys and gals prefer me to post the past 4 runs and model comparisons like this? or? it just takes a bit longer as the ECMWF hi-res runs slower.

It's your offense my man. I post just single frames overnight.

[Cold Snap]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 7 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

It’s coming. That’s all this looks like to me.

[bainbridgekid]

Whistler would be able to open by Halloween on this run. 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Kolk1604]

Hmmmm 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

A November to remember? A few more days of model runs like this and I'll have to dust off the 'Colder Runs Ahead!'(c)Rob 2017?

6z GFS in 2 hours 35 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

A November to remember? A few more days of model runs like this and I'll have to dust off the 'Colder Runs Ahead!'(c)Rob 2017?

6z GFS in 2 hours 35 minutes

I hope so. 

850's warm at the end, but we all know switch can flip on the next run 

[Gradient Keeper]

November is going to be cold enough to freeze off a cows balls. Something like that.

00z ECMWF in 22 hours 35 minutes