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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx
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58 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'm in Spokane and have never used snow tires on my 2012 Outback.  I run some top of the line Cooper All Seasons.  never had any issues.

Interesting....I asked my mother in law about it, she has owned Subarus forever, and lived in Hood River/The Dalles for a while before moving to Great Falls.  She talked to her "tire guy" and he said on the east side of the continental divide, they could get away with "all seasons" with the triple peaks because the snow is so dry.  He also told her that in parts of Montana west of the continental divide like Missoula folks needed a set of winter tires because of the higher moisture content in the snow.  She said it was the same in Hood River/The Dalles.  I would assume that would be the case for Spokane but maybe not?

For my son, the fact that he will be hitting to road at 4am, and getting to Hamilton just before 5am, I'm a little concerned about what he is going to find for the road conditions.  Fortunately, he is on the interstate and a major state highway, but still, the canyon south of Bellingham can get downright nasty in a hurry.

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15 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Nearly midnight and it’s 71 degrees in Chicago.

The craziness continues.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

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18 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEM

floop-gdps-2022102500.500h_anom_na.gif

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 3 minutes

Truly amazing how fast the models have changed their tune on early November.  As always the details of any blocking features will be subject to rapid change.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

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I feel like a night shift is in order, Rob.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 16F (Jan 30, 2023)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 9, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 30, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.25" (graupel)
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (mostly graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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At this point it appears a cold Halloween might be on the table with that first cold shot.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

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11 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Looking like Stevens will get 3-4ft of snow over the next 7-10 days 

IDK about that. Looks to me like the snow level will bounce around between 3,500 and 5,500 feet. Stevens will get periods of rain between each snowfall which will probably keep much from piling up at pass level. It’s too early in the season for any cold East wind helping out the passes so they’ll have to rely on cold enough upper level air masses.

Does look like the upper slopes there will get a lot though.

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  • Snow 1

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 82.5"

2022-23: 15"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I feel like a night shift is in order, Rob.

During the summer I didn't sleep until 2 AM and it felt dead and surreal on here to be the only one online at times. Here's for some great night shifts from here on out! 🍻

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All those moments will be lost in time. . .
like tears in snow.
 ❞

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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10 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

IDK about that. Looks to me like the snow level will bounce around between 3,500 and 5,500 feet. Stevens will get periods of rain between each snowfall which will probably keep much from piling up at pass level. It’s too early in the season for any cold East wind helping out the passes so they’ll have to rely on cold enough upper level air masses.

Does look like the upper slopes there will get a lot though.

For sure. I meant in terms of snowfall. The 7-10 day is looking really promising and hopefully doesn’t get too watered down. The upper slopes is what really matters for ski season and they looked to get a good base going. 

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4 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

During the summer I didn't sleep until 2 AM and it felt dead and surreal on here to be the only one online at times. Here's for some great night shifts from here on out! 🍻

Looking forward the night shifts this winter! It’s gonna be EPIC!!!!!!!!

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2022-2023 Winter Stats

Total Snowfall - 14.25”

Max Snow Depth - 6”

Coldest High Temp - 23F

Coldest Low Temp - 11F

Number of Freezes - 49

Sub-40 highs - 18

Highs 32 or lower - 3

 

 

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5 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Professor: “The exam is today” 

18z: 

Yup... it's literally me trying to sabotage the latest  model run and showed up to the exam the day after all confused. 😂

In all seriousness, was just catching up on the runs today saw these hilarious frames! Thus, the meme. ;)

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Not often we see the EURO, GEM, and GFS in sync like this at Day 6.

Just what I was thinking.  I think I like the finest details on the ECMWF the best though.  Looking good for at least a minor cold shot.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

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26 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Up to .92” 6" on the day and it’s currently dumping! 

Won't be much longer before you post something like this. 

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 82.5"

2022-23: 15"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Do you guys and gals prefer me to post the past 4 runs and model comparisons like this? or? it just takes a bit longer as the ECMWF hi-res runs slower.

It's your offense my man. I post just single frames overnight.

  • Thanks 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 16F (Jan 30, 2023)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 9, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 30, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.25" (graupel)
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (mostly graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

24

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6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 7 (Past 4 runs)

trend-ecmwf_full-2022102500-f168.500h_anom.na.gif

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

models-2022102500-f168.500h_anom.na.gif

It’s coming. That’s all this looks like to me.

  • Like 3

2022-2023 Winter Stats

Total Snowfall - 14.25”

Max Snow Depth - 6”

Coldest High Temp - 23F

Coldest Low Temp - 11F

Number of Freezes - 49

Sub-40 highs - 18

Highs 32 or lower - 3

 

 

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

A November to remember? A few more days of model runs like this and I'll have to dust off the 'Colder Runs Ahead!'(c)Rob 2017?

6z GFS in 2 hours 35 minutes

I hope so. 

850's warm at the end, but we all know switch can flip on the next run 

  • Shivering 1

195572.png?1673757432

 

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