October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Timmy]

Fun

[Doinko]

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

My oh my

Nice.

Not a big windstorm fan, but at this point.... why not.

[MV_snow]

33 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

This is how Californians feel about rain. 

The pitter patter sound on my roof is something I’ve missed.

[Anti Marine Layer]

24 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Everyone I talk to is really excited for the rain, but most of them will probably be complaining about it by Halloween

Will trick or treat be wet and slippery?

[Front Ranger]

50 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

First 20 days of October summary at PDX:

The warmest October ever is a lock. That’s after the warmest week ever in July, the warmest month ever in August, and the warmest September ever. The most anomalously warm month ever is still possible.

Now that the RRR is behind us, let’s cheers to bountiful lowland rain and mountain snow, cool temps, and some exciting model riding. We have earned this drink. 

I don't think it's even a lock for PDX (definitely not for most stations). The next 10 days are going to be MUCH cooler than the monthly average to this point.

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice. Strong compact 984mb low landfall Tillamook. Weakens very slightly as it moves northeast. Very tight pressure gradient immediately south of the low for a quick hitting localized wind storm.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Requiem]

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

My oh my

Oh 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like PDX snuck in another 70 today. Praying it’s the last one until at least March.

67/45 here with smoke finally clearing out in the afternoon on NW winds. Cannot wait for this pattern change. It’s been a brutal last four months.

What 71 feels like in Portland

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I don't think it's even a lock for PDX (definitely not for most stations). The next 10 days are going to be MUCH cooler than the monthly average to this point.

......the averages drop steeply through the month of October anyways. Even not accounting for the obviously ridiculous current month-to-date averages.

The next 10 days are far from a lock to finish as much below average. And the absolutely historic start to the month means it would probably take something like 1935 from here on out to avoid a record.

Edited October 21, 2022 by BLI snowman

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

84-85 would be nice

Must've been a wet one.

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

......the averages drop steeply through the month of October anyways. Even not accounting for the obviously ridiculous current month-to-date averages.

The next 10 days are far from a lock to finish as much below average. And the absolutely historic start to the month means it would probably take something like 1935 from here on out to avoid a record.

Agreed. I said much below the monthly average to this point.

PDX is looking at temps the next 10 days probably around 13-14 degrees cooler than the current monthly average. That will drop it in a hurry.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Front Ranger]

Just did the math. If PDX finishes with an average temp of 54 for the rest of the month, which looks very doable, they will miss record warm October by about a degree.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Just did the math. If PDX finishes with an average temp of 54 for the rest of the month, which looks very doable, they will miss record warm October by about a degree.

Plz don’t Jim us 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

14 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I don't think it's even a lock for PDX (definitely not for most stations). The next 10 days are going to be MUCH cooler than the monthly average to this point.

You might be right. If we average 56/44 over the next 11 days, we will beat the record by .1 degrees. I think we’re going to break the record, but it’s certainly not a given like you said.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[NWbyNW]

Onshore winds are coming it at all sides!  We got windy and gust conditions along the coast and throughout the North Sound!!!  You can see stations becoming moderate and green and eating away at the once purple air stations.  For the Puget Sound is is coming in from the north and south!  For Portland, the north is cleaning out first and moving south.

By tomorrow morning, we should hopefully see a totally different picture in terms of AQI scores. Light rain will pick up by mid-morning in the Puget Sound, and come down at a good clip by there early afternoon.  Friday night into Saturday will mark the heaviest of the rain, and mountain snow will fall down to 4,000 feet! Changing Stevens Pass from high fire danger to a snowy wonderland in less than 24hrs!  

Advisories are in effect for most of the Washington and Oregon coast as well as waters in the North Sound. Admiralty Inlet and the San Juans will be choppy with waves varying between 2-4 feet depending on location.  Pacific Coastal locations you can expect 8-11 feet and gusts up to 30mph depending on location. 

 

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Agreed. I said much below the monthly average to this point.

PDX is looking at temps the next 10 days probably around 13-14 degrees cooler than the current monthly average. That will drop it in a hurry.

PDX is still 5.8 degrees above their monthly record after today.

That means the next 11 days will have to average 49.7 or lower to avoid a monthly record there. Pretty unlikely given that there will be plenty of cloudy nights coming up and likely few opportunities for lows well into the 40s there.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Deweydog]

Tuesday looks pretty DYNAMIC on the GFS!

[MV_snow]

Nice surprise PSCZ rain here. Interesting that the preceding front only gave a bit of drizzle this morning, but the PSCZ is producing an hour and counting of steady rain here. It’s a nice surprise when the CZ is this far south. It would be nice for this area to get in on a CZ following an arctic front this Winter!

[Kolk1604]

Tuesday... 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Tuesday... 

East metro wins again

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Tuesday... 

Trend north! 

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Tuesday... 

60-65mph gusts for me.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

00z GFS is whetttt!

[Gradient Keeper]

56.8 with crystal clear skies. Wonderful!!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Thru hr240

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Thru hr240

Lol at the cascades and the coast...

[Sonny Summers]

2 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

No idea why I'm still using my artist name for my username. I think it's time for a change.... Hmmm....

00z GFS in 33 minutes

I suggest Atmospheric Wrath.

[kokaneekidz]

1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

Everyone I talk to is really excited for the rain, but most of them will probably be complaining about it by Halloween

Long term shows heavy rain on Halloween as well.

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

I suggest Atmospheric Wrath.

That old name? What about Gorton's Jr.?

00z ECMWF in 30 minutes

[Kolk1604]

I never thought if I wanted to visit Rob I could do so by boat, but here we are. (Or Jet-Ski)

[Doinko]

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

That old name? What about Gorton's Jr.?

00z ECMWF in 30 minutes

Snow_King

[snow_wizard]

That situation on Tuesday is pretty fascinating.  That would probably be a big snowfall even 4 to 6 weeks from now.